Russia Ramps Up Military Activity In The Arctic

NATO On Edge As Russia Ramps Up Military Activity In The Arctic

The Jamestown Foundation via OilPrice.com,

• Russia is ramping up commercial and military activity in the Arctic.

• Since 2005, Russia has reopened dozens of Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic.

• NATO has become increasingly concerned about Russia’s accelerating Arctic ambitions.

The Russian government has taken notice of environmental changes that have steadily opened the Arctic coastlines of countries in the northern hemisphere to increased maritime traffic, with the Kremlin recently announcing its intention to expand maritime cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2023. 

Speaking at the “Transport of Russia” forum last month, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that, since the beginning of this year, 25 million tons of cargo traversed the NSR. Mishustin called the development of the NSR one of the Russian government’s “key priorities,” projecting a need to achieve a transportation target of 80 million tons of cargo by 2024 (Vedomosti, November 16).

Not surprisingly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has become increasingly concerned about Russia’s accelerating Arctic activity. Beyond Moscow’s growing interest in the region’s commercial potential, since 2005, Russia has reopened dozens of Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic and modernized its navy while developing new hypersonic missiles. Since Putin began his “special military operation” against Ukraine, one consequence for Russia has been that the geopolitical and military situation in the Arctic is changing, as once Sweden and Finland join NATO, seven of the eight members of the Arctic Council will be NATO members (the others being Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Canada and the US). Broadening its concern beyond the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO noted in this context that, on July 31, Putin signed the “On the Approval of the Naval Doctrine of the Russian Federation” decree, with the new naval strategy pledging to protect Arctic waters “by all means” (Kremlin.ru, July 31). Bolstering NATO concerns, in September 2022, Chinese and Russian warships conducted a joint exercise in the Bering Sea (Federalnews24.ru, September 27).

The convergence of all these elements are casting the Arctic as a new front in the ongoing major geopolitical upheavals in Eurasia. As Putin squanders his country’s military personnel and logistics to continue tormenting Ukraine, the conflict is also depleting NATO’s weapons stocks, a sobering thought for those contemplating a possible new operational front in an inhospitable Arctic environment. Ultimately, NATO would do well to build on its revitalization stemming from Russia’s war against Ukraine and develop a strong, more unified approach to countering Russian activity in the Arctic.