On The Brink - War Timeline Is Narrowing

On The Brink - War Timeline Is Narrowing

 PNW STAFF

War rarely begins with a declaration. More often, it arrives disguised as routine meetings, shipping advisories, and "defensive" military movements that quietly redraw the boundaries of risk. That is where the United States, Israel, and Iran now stand--locked in a cycle of escalation where diplomacy continues in form, but preparation for conflict is advancing in substance.

At the center of this accelerating crisis is an unusually urgent meeting in Washington between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Originally planned for a later date, Netanyahu's visit was moved up in response to growing Israeli concerns about Iran's ballistic missile program, underscoring the rapid pace at which the situation is evolving. Israeli officials have described it not as symbolic diplomacy, but as a "strategy-shaping session"--a meeting intended to align on contingency plans, not photo opportunities. 

Adding to the pressure, the so-called Board of Peace is scheduled to convene on February 19, a forum intended to explore regional de-escalation but one that also sets a hard point on the calendar for decisions. The compression of these timelines is stark: with diplomacy, military planning, and multilateral talks converging, the window for preventing a confrontation is narrowing fast.

Publicly, the White House maintains that it prefers a negotiated outcome. Vice President JD Vance has reiterated that President Trump is seeking a "meaningful deal" with Iran--one that stabilizes the region and restrains Tehran's ambitions. Privately, however, patience is thinning. U.S. officials are pressing Iran to arrive at the next round of talks with concrete concessions, warning that time and tolerance are both finite.

Iran has responded by hardening its stance. Tehran has offered only limited compromises in exchange for the complete removal of sanctions, a condition Washington is unwilling to accept. As the diplomatic gap widens, the United States has quietly begun preparing for contingencies that suggest officials are no longer confident talks will hold. U.S.-flagged vessels have been advised to stay "as far as possible" from Iranian waters while navigating the Strait of Hormuz--one of the world's most vital energy corridors. Such advisories are rare, and they reflect a genuine concern that maritime confrontation could erupt with little warning.

Military Signals Beneath the Diplomatic Surface

While negotiations continue on paper, the military picture tells a more sobering story. Open-source intelligence analysts have tracked an unusual surge in U.S. military movement from Europe into the Middle East. Strategic airlift aircraft--C-17 Globemaster IIIs typically used to transport heavy equipment, missile systems, and personnel--have appeared in notable concentrations at Ramstein Air Base in Germany and Al Udeid in Qatar. Tanker aircraft, surveillance platforms, drones, and naval patrols have followed.

U.S. Navy reconnaissance aircraft have been repeatedly observed flying maritime routes south of Iran, while aerial refueling tankers briefly operated close enough to Iranian airspace to raise alarms before tracking feeds went dark. A U.S. carrier strike group is already operating in the region, and President Trump has publicly stated that he is considering deploying an additional carrier if talks collapse. Patriot missile systems, meanwhile, remain mounted on mobile platforms, allowing rapid repositioning either to defend against Iranian retaliation or to support offensive operations.

This posture goes beyond deterrence. It reflects readiness.

Iran's Warning: A War Preview, Not a Threat

Tehran has responded with a message designed to be seen, not merely heard. The Iranian regime has released a highly produced propaganda video depicting the destruction of what it derisively labels Donald Trump's "armada" in the Middle East. The footage simulates a coordinated, multi-domain assault on a U.S. carrier strike group--ballistic and cruise missiles raining down from land, submarines firing torpedoes, fast patrol boats swarming the fleet, and waves of jet-powered Shahed drones slamming into American warships. These are the same drones Russia has used extensively to terrorize Ukrainian cities.

The video is more than propaganda. It reflects a strategic shift. Israeli officials are no longer primarily focused on Iran's nuclear program, which they believe was largely neutralized during previous U.S. strikes. The greater concern now is Iran's rapidly expanding ballistic missile arsenal--thousands of increasingly precise weapons designed to overwhelm air defenses and strike multiple targets simultaneously. This is saturation warfare, and it is central to Iran's deterrence doctrine.

Israel's Calculus--and the Risk of Acting Alone

For Israel, the margin for error is narrowing. Netanyahu's expedited meeting with Trump has fueled speculation that Jerusalem is seeking clarity--either assurance that the United States will act if diplomacy fails or tacit approval to move independently if it does not.

An Israeli operation would likely focus on missile infrastructure and command-and-control nodes rather than nuclear sites. But such a strike would almost certainly trigger a broader regional response. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, and Houthi forces in Yemen could all be activated. Israel could find itself engaged on multiple fronts within days.

Four Paths Forward--and None Without Consequences

More....

Tehran threatens missile barrage on Israel’s center

Tehran threatens missile barrage on Israel’s center

Israel Today Staff

In the heart of Tehran, the Iranian regime has unveiled a new propaganda billboard that openly threatens a missile attack on Israel’s metropolitan area. The image was placed in Palestine Square, a location that has been used for years for state-orchestrated displays against Israel and is regularly updated with changing political messages.

The motif shows a detailed map of central Israel with marked targets, including Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Herzliya, and Ben Gurion International Airport. Above the depiction appears the English sentence “You start – we finish it.” The image is supplemented by Hebrew slogans referring to Israel as a “small, vulnerable territory.” The visual message is unmistakable: should a military strike be launched against Iranian targets, Tehran is announcing a massive missile attack on Israel’s center.

The threat comes against the background of reports that Iran has now rebuilt its missile arsenal damaged in the war with Israel. Tehran thus continues to possess ballistic capabilities that can, in principle, reach targets in central Israel.

Palestine Square has long served as a symbolic venue for Iranian anti-Israel propaganda. 

In the past, installations have been displayed there that openly called for Israel’s destruction or visualized corresponding scenarios. Among other things, a doomsday countdown clock was installed there, symbolically ticking down to the destruction of Israel. The installations at this location are regularly replaced, but they always follow the same ideological line.

The new billboard fits into this practice, but it features a map of central Israel with marked locations and largely dispenses with abstract symbolism. The depiction points to a possible Iranian response in the event of a military attack on the ayatollah regime.

This comes at a time of ongoing talks between the United States and Iran, most recently held in Muscat, the capital of Oman. These are indirect talks in which Washington and Tehran communicate through mediators. According to diplomatic sources, these discussions focus primarily on the Iranian nuclear program.

Other issues—such as Iran’s missile arsenal or Tehran’s regional role—are not yet part of the talks. Israel, however, demands that these security-relevant points be included in any possible negotiations. Against this backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington tomorrow to speak with US President Donald Trump about the ongoing US–Iran talks.

Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ isn’t about Gaza: It’s about replacing the UN

Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ isn’t about Gaza: It’s about replacing the UN

 In a thought-provoking commentary published on February 10, 2026, the European Policy Centre (EPC) warns that President Donald Trump’s so-called “Board of Peace” initiative is less about addressing the humanitarian and political challenges in Gaza, and more about reshaping the global governance architecture in a way that could marginalize the United Nations.

At face value, Trump’s Board of Peace emerged as part of a controversial U.S. plan to manage post-conflict reconstruction and governance in Gaza after the 2023–2025 war and subsequent fragile ceasefire arrangements.

But according to the EPC analysis, this forum signals something far deeper and potentially more destabilizing: the normalization of a model in which international crises are governed outside the established multilateral legal framework embodied by the UN.

While discussions about reconstruction and stabilization are urgent, the timing and structure of the Board — coming as the UN itself grapples with financial fragility and unpaid dues — suggests a deliberate effort to sidestep the Convention system that has underpinned international peacebuilding for decades.

Critics argue that what makes this development truly consequential isn’t merely the Board’s activities in Gaza, but the precedent it sets: a world where peace processes and crisis management may increasingly take place in closed, informal settings controlled by powerful states and wealthy contributors rather than through inclusive, rules-based institutions.

As the EPC commentary notes, a weakened UN does not collapse in dramatic fashion — it simply becomes “a lesser option,” sidelined by newer bodies that claim efficiency and effectiveness precisely because they operate outside the constraints of universal representation and international law.

This debate carries real geopolitical implications. Supporters of the Board argue that a fresh multilateral forum could streamline decision-making and avoid the gridlock often associated with UN diplomacy.

Yet opponents — especially in Europe and among like-minded democracies — see the Board’s emergence as a potential threat to the post-World War II order, which has historically anchored collective security and cooperative conflict resolution.

Security experts: Israel, US will likely strike Iran together

Security experts: Israel, US will likely strike Iran together

Hezy Laing

Military analysts and regional security experts are increasingly signaling that a coordinated, large-scale strike by Israel and the United States against Iran is highly probable.

This potential operation is seen as a necessary follow-up to the June 2025 “12-Day War,” which saw Israel and the US target Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Strategic Drivers for a Joint Offensive

While the 2025 strikes “crippled” Iran’s nuclear advancement, recent satellite imagery reveals that Tehran is rapidly rebuilding its missile-related infrastructure.

Experts argue that neither nation can allow Iran to fully reconstitute its capabilities, making a joint return to offensive operations the most logical strategic path.

Experts say this action could also trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic, which is currently facing wide-scale protests and economic distress.

According to Business Today, former national security adviser John Bolton asserts that any military force used should aim explicitly for regime change.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian national security official and current researcher at Princeton, emphasized that the Trump administration appears committed to a decisive military outcome.

He noted that many experts believe Trump has already made the decision for a new strike, which would be an “existential war” for Tehran.

The Necessity of Joint Force

The complexity of reaching hardened Iranian targets, such as the Pickaxe Mountain facility, dictates a joint approach.

RAND Corporation analysts have pointed out that Israel lacks the heavy ordnance required to destroy these deep-buried sites alone, making U.S. participation—specifically its heavy bombers—essential for a successful mission.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for Maariv, highlighted the depth of current intelligence sharing between Jerusalem and Washington.

He suggested that while Israel is prepared to act alone if necessary, the prevailing belief is that the U.S. will ultimately launch the strike and provide Israel the operational “green light” to join in over Iranian territory.

Israeli leadership has remained firm on the inevitability of further action. Yiftach Ron-Tal, a former IDF major general, has consistently argued that continuous military pressure is the only way to neutralize the Iranian threat, viewing another joint offensive as a required step to “finish the job” started in 2025.

With U.S. aircraft carriers and F-35 fighter jets currently amassing in the region, the infrastructure for a joint 2026 offensive is already being established.

Former Pentagon officials have highlighted the expanded 2026 U.S.–Israel “Juniper Oak” exercises, which included long‑range strike simulations, aerial refueling, and integrated air‑defense suppression.

These drills were widely interpreted as preparation for a potential crisis scenario involving Iran.

If Israel and the United States were to act together, experts say the division of labor would reflect each military’s strengths.

The Israeli Air Force would likely handle precision strikes on specific nuclear facilities, electronic‑warfare operations, and rapid‑entry missions using its upgraded F‑35I fleet.

The U.S. Air Force, with its B‑2 and B‑21 bombers now fully operational, would take responsibility for deep‑penetration strikes, heavy ordnance delivery, and broad suppression of Iranian air defenses.

Coordination would rely on shared targeting data, synchronized timing, and pre‑planned air corridors rehearsed in recent joint exercises.

Officials in both countries continue to emphasize diplomacy, but 2026 assessments warn that Iran’s nuclear advances are accelerating.

The strategic dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington has clearly entered a more urgent phase.

China Played Key Role in Iran’s Digital Crackdown on Protesters, Report Shows

China Played Key Role in Iran’s Digital Crackdown on Protesters, Report Shows

by Ailin Vilches Arguello

The Iranian regime used Chinese and Russian technology to silence dissent during recent nationwide anti-government protests, imposing near-total internet shutdowns and disrupting satellite communications to suppress public scrutiny, according to a new study.

On Monday, the international human rights organization Article 19 released a new report examining digital cooperation between China and Iran, detailing Beijing’s role in expanding Tehran’s digital repression apparatus.

“In its pursuit of total control over the digital space, Iran borrows directly from the Chinese digital authoritarian playbook,” Michael Caster, head of Article 19’s Global China Program, said in a statement. 

“From Chinese companies embedded inside Iran’s infrastructure, to Iran’s support for China’s ‘cyber sovereignty’ principles based on censorship and surveillance, both countries align in their ambition to disconnect their populations from the open, global internet,” he continued.  

According to the report, China has provided material and technical support to Iran since at least 2010, bolstering its surveillance and censorship capabilities as Chinese firms including ZTE, Huawei, Tiandy, and Hikvision continue operating in the country despite international sanctions.

“Emulating China’s infrastructure of oppression helps Iran entrench power, sidestepping accountability and exercising full control over the information environment,” Article 19’s head of resilience, Mo Hoseini, said in a statement. “That way, dissent is not just silenced, it is prevented from ever surfacing.”

The study also explains that Iran is seeking to replicate China’s “Great Firewall” through its National Information Network, a system designed to restrict access to the global internet while centralizing censorship and embedding surveillance deep within national infrastructure.

As international scrutiny over the regime grows, new estimates show that tens of thousands of people were killed by Iranian security forces during an unprecedented crackdown on nationwide protests last month.

Two senior Iranian Ministry of Health officials told Time magazine that as many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone. Some reports have put the figure even higher, suggesting the regime could have perpetrated one of the deadliest crackdowns in modern history — all under cover of digital darkness.

With authorities enforcing an internet blackout for weeks, the actual number of casualties remains difficult to verify. Activists fear the internet shutdown is being used to conceal the full extent of the crackdown on anti-regime protests.

According to Craig Singleton, a Stanford professor and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based think tank, surveillance technology supplied by Chinese exporter Tiandy Digital Technology Co. has strengthened Iranian security forces’ ability to identify and track protesters. 

The equipment, including network video recorders, has been deployed during both the current unrest and previous waves of nationwide protests.

China expressed support for the Iranian regime last month amid the protests, hoping Tehran would “overcome” the unrest and “uphold stability.”

If the regime in Iran was seriously weakened or potentially collapsed, it would present a problem for a strategic partner of Beijing.

China, a key diplomatic and economic backer of Tehran, has moved to deepen ties with the regime in recent years, signing a 25-year cooperation agreement, holding joint naval drills, and continuing to purchase Iranian oil despite US sanctions.

China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, with nearly 90 percent of Iran’s crude and condensate exports going to Beijing

Iran’s growing ties with China come at a time when Tehran faces mounting economic sanctions from Western powers, while Beijing itself is also under US sanctions.

According to some media reports, China may be even helping Iran rebuild its decimated air defenses following the 12-day war with Israel in June.

The extent of China’s partnership with Iran may be tested as the latter comes under increased international scrutiny over its violent crackdown on anti-regime protests.