The US-Israeli campaign against Iran reached its five-week mark on Saturday, with no clear mechanism to end the conflict in sight.
Five weeks of running to shelters and mass casualty events from Iranian missiles seems like an eternity to many Israelis, but it is still within the 4-6 week timeline offered by the White House early in the war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, more disciplined than US President Donald Trump, has preferred not to give firm estimates on how long the war might last, but said last week it was “definitely beyond the halfway point” in terms of its missions.
Trump’s attempts to bring the conflict to a successful termination through direct talks with the Iranians seem to be leading nowhere, as expected.
Mediators told The Wall Street Journal on Friday that negotiations have hit a “dead end.” Trump, meanwhile, extended his deadline for Iran a second time, vowing to rain “hell” on the country if it fails to reach a ceasefire deal or open the Strait of Hormuz by Monday.
So, what happens next?
Two optimistic scenarios are unlikely to play out. Despite repeated assertions from Israel that there are “visible cracks” in the Iranian regime, it’s not about to fall. US intelligence assessments say that the regime is likely to remain in place, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holding even more control.
Nor are the Iranians going to run out of missiles or drones. Israel and the US have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and launchers, but Israel believes that the country has over 1,000 left, according to an IAF intelligence officer, and will be able to keep firing for as long as the war goes on.
Iran is also proving able to quickly dig out launchers from underground sites that are hit by the US and Israel and put them back into use, The New York Times has reported.
The war looks to be headed toward an escalation, then, in what might be its final phase.
Unless Trump keeps extending his deadlines, he will have to make good on his promise to end America’s “lovely stay in Iran” by attacking electric plants, oil infrastructure, and Kharg Island.
He made an extremely explicit and specific threat on Sunday, saying that Tuesday “will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”
Israel is champing at the bit to launch its own attacks on Iranian energy facilities as well, but is waiting for a green light from the US.
Trump — and most likely Netanyahu in that case — could unilaterally end the war after taking out key Iranian energy infrastructure, and paint a victory narrative by laying out the damage done to Iranian military and industrial capabilities.
There are still several major problems with that approach.
First of all, there is no guarantee that Iran will agree to stop fighting just because the US and Israel do. It might sense an opportunity to firm up the narrative that it defeated its enemies by continuing to target Israel and Arab states, undermining Trump’s victory claims.
More significantly, it’s hard to imagine Trump allowing the war to end with effective control over the Strait of Hormuz remaining in Iranian hands. Whereas the US had been the guarantor of safe passage through the chokepoint in the past, Iran would become the arbiter of who gets to transit — and would undoubtedly use that to its advantage, charging fees and pressuring other countries by threatening to keep them out.
Trump has thousands of ground troops ready for an operation to wrest control over the strait from Iran. They could grab islands in the passageway, seize parts of the Iranian coastline from which it threatens shipping, or land on Kharg Island to hold the crucial export site as a bargaining chip.
The use of ground troops could further escalate the war, as Iran would likely throw much of its firepower at an amphibious force. If it caused significant casualties, Trump could well choose to punish Iran even further.
And there remains the issue of Iran’s 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. It is believed to be buried under the rubble of Isfahan and Natanz, nuclear sites bombed by the US and Israel last year.
Leaving it inside Iran would potentially give the regime the opportunity to excavate it in the future and use it to create a nuclear weapon.
Trump claims that it isn’t a problem. In his address last week, he said that “we have it under intense satellite surveillance and control. If we see [the Iranians] make a move, even a move for it, we’ll hit them with missiles very hard again.”
Nonetheless, Trump won’t be in office forever, and he might not have the will to start another fight with Iran in the time that remains.
There are US plans to use ground troops to extract the uranium. However, such an operation would be dangerous and demand significant resources.
The US military would have to airlift hundreds or even thousands of troops behind enemy lines, along with heavy equipment, all while operating under Iranian fire, former defense officials told The Washington Post.
They would have to spend weeks blasting through the rubble to collect the uranium, while planes would need a purpose-built runway to carry the material away. And Iran would be sending whatever it could to harm troops involved in the effort.
At least for the coming weeks, the war against Iran looks to be headed for further escalation. That would hurt Iran more than Israel and the US, but it by no means points to an easy way out of the war.
