The Ayatollahs who could replace Khamenei... and the chilling scenario that could make Iran even more dangerous

The Ayatollahs who could replace Khamenei... and the chilling scenario that could make Iran even more dangerous

NICK ALLEN

Numerous US and Israeli TV networks reported Khamenei was dead, citing Israeli sources. There was no immediate confirmation from the White House or Tehran. 

In recent years, a favorite to succeed the 86-year-old Supreme Leader had been the hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, but he was killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024.

One contender, if he survived the bombardment, is Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, the Ayatollah's second-eldest son. 

However, while Mojtaba is a powerful and hardline figure in the background, he has never held government office.

Experts believe an increasing possibility is a takeover by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - leading to a military rather than clerical form of government.

In recent weeks, the CIA assessed that, if Khamenei was killed in a 'decapitation strike,' he would likely be replaced by ruthlessly hardline figures from the IRGC.

'Iran’s military commanders hold the country’s future in their hands,' according to Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program.

'That imperative could well expand their appetites, and when Khamenei passes from the scene - either as a result of natural causes or decapitation strikes - so too could any effort to sustain the pretense of religious legitimacy in favor of military rule.'

That would mean even more brutal responses to popular uprisings amid US entreaties for the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

It would also continue to frustrate US attempts to get Iran to denuclearize.

Alternatively, if it doesn't lurch even more into repression, the regime could appoint a figure who can deal with the United States, in the same way Delcy Rodríguez took over as acting president in Venezuela after the capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro last month.

That could be Ali Larijani, chair of the Supreme National Security Commission who, in recent weeks, Khamenei had given increasing power to instead of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Larijani has been described as Khamenei's 'eminence grise' and is a former IRGC officer, and former speaker of the Parliament. 

In preparation for potential US and Israeli attacks, Khamenei also reportedly named to top officials three clerics as potential successors, but their identities have remained secret.

Although he has effectively been running the country, Larijani, a philosophy professor and trained mathematician who wears business suits, is not thought to be among them.

Another possibility for the role of interlocutor with the US, is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Parliament speaker, who is close to Mojtaba Khamenei and hardliners in the IRGC. 

According to Article 111 of the Iranian constitution, a three-member council consisting of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council, would take over temporarily in the wake of Khamenei's demise.

The next Supreme Leader would then be chosen by the 88-seat Assembly of Experts.

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Hormuz Strait’s Closure Could Trigger Collapse of Fiat Money - Expert

Hormuz Strait’s Closure Could Trigger Collapse of Fiat Money - Expert

Sputnik

The US and Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory closure of the narrow choke point exit from the Persian Gulf may have “cascading consequences for the global economy,” culminating in severe blows to the US dollar and other fiat currencies, says energy economist Dr. Kazi Sohag.

“Approximately 17-20 million barrels of oil – representing over 20% of the world’s daily consumption – pass through this narrow waterway every day. 

These shipments originate primarily from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, and Qatar, and flow toward major importers including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union,” Sohag explained.

“But the ripple effects would not stop there. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal—already volatile due to Houthi activity in the Red Sea—could also face further disruptions. Currently, 8.8 to 9.2 million barrels of oil and 4.1 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas transit those routes daily. A synchronized blockade across these chokepoints would magnify the supply shock exponentially.”

If sustained, the “immediate consequence” of the supply disruption will be “a sharp spike in energy prices,” not only via physical shortages of crude, but thanks to amplification by financial market speculators, hedge funds, banks and algorithmic traders trading futures, Sohag explained.

More broadly, the energy crunch may cause global stock markets to plunge and inflation to surge, “not just in fuel, but across transport, manufacturing and food production, rendering basic goods and services unaffordable for many.”

Worse yet, “as the gap between monetary supply and real economic output widens, confidence in fiat currencies could erode, potentially triggering a crisis in the global monetary system,” Sohag stressed.

“Oil-exporting countries such as Russia, Nigeria, Angola, Malaysia, and even the United States could see short-term gains from rising prices. But for the US, the benefits would be mixed. While energy producers might profit, a collapse in global trade and a reduction in dollar-denominated transactions could weaken the dollar's international standing.”

“The world must now brace for a cascade of economic, financial, and geopolitical consequences that could redefine the contours of international stability for years to come,” the economist summed up.

Strait of Hormuz Closure: Expert Outlines Three Scenarios for Oil Markets

LIVE UPDATES: Middle East Crisis After Strikes on Iran – Day 2

LIVE UPDATES: Middle East Crisis After Strikes on Iran – Day 2

SPUTNIK

Maersk Suspends Freight Operations Via Strait of Hormuz Until Further Notice

The world's largest freight carrier, Maersk, announced on Sunday an indefinite suspension of operations via the Strait of Hormuz amid regional fighting.

"We are suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice," the Danish company said on its website.

Iran's IRGC Says It Launched 4 Ballistic Missiles at US Aircraft Carrier

Tehran launched four ballistic missile strikes on the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Sunday.

"The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was attacked with four ballistic missiles," the IRGC statement released by Iran's state broadcaster read.

Tehran's retaliatory strikes against the US and Israel have entered a "new phase," the IRGC said.

US, Israel Striking Iran's Western Borders, Several Victims Reported - Reports

The United States and Israel are striking Iran's western borders, with preliminary reports indicating casualties among border guards, Iran's Fars news agency reported on Sunday, citing sources in Iran's security services.

The field observations of security services indicate increased activity against Iranian border guards in western regions of the country, the news agency reported.

In particular, a border post in a northwestern province of Iran was hit by missile strikes. Additionally, earlier in the day, strikes were carried out against border guards in Mehran, located in the western province of Ilam, as well as against the Javanrud border crossing with Iraq.

Former Iranian President Ahmadinejad Killed in US-Israeli Attack on Tehran - Reports

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was killed in an attack by the United States and Israel, Iranian news agency ILNA reported on Sunday.

Ahmadinejad, who was president of Iran from 2005 to 2013, was killed in an attack on the Narmak district of Tehran, the news agency added.

However, official authorities and the ex-leader's office have not yet confirmed Ahmadinejad's death.

US Doesn’t Have Enough Missile Interceptors For Sustained War Against Iran - Analyst

“The primary problem the US and its proxies in the region have is America’s own global overreach,” says analyst Brian Berletic, commenting on a Bloomberg report that US missile interceptor stocks could run low “within days.” Washington “is attempting to wage multiple wars and proxy wars of aggression spanning the globe from Latin America to Ukraine in Europe, Iran and Yemen in the Middle East while also building up forces for a confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific. They simply do not have enough munitions to go around.”

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IDF: 160,000 reservists called up

160,000 reservists called up

Israel National News

In recent days, including this morning, the Israel Defense Forces mobilized approximately 160,000 reservists, primarily to reinforce the Air Force, border defense units, and Home Front Command. The military is also preparing for the possibility of incoming fire from Yemen and Iraq in light of the palnned continuation of attacks in Iran. 

The IDF Operations Directorate has initiated a broad reinforcement of ground forces across all sectors and regional commands. This includes the deployment of special forces and a large-scale reservist call-up to strengthen readiness for a range of offensive and defensive scenarios. Significant reinforcements are also being directed to the Air and Naval Forces, along with an increase in available firepower systems.

The military official described the campaign as a “joint and unprecedented operation" with the United States aimed at inflicting substantial damage on Iran’s leadership and neutralizing what Israel considers existential threats. “We will create the military conditions to topple the regime through coordination with the U.S. military," the official said, adding that all arenas are being monitored in case the conflict expands into a wider, multi-theater confrontation.

According to the IDF, intelligence assessments in recent months indicate that Iran possesses more than 2,000 ballistic missiles and continues to produce them in significant numbers. Israeli security officials have also identified renewed efforts to conceal and fortify elements of Iran’s nuclear program, particularly through underground facilities.

In parallel with the air campaign, the IDF plans to further reinforce its ranks with the mobilization of an additional 50,000 reservists, a number that could increase by tens of thousands more depending on developments on the ground.

Hour of nonstop Iranian fire on central, southern Israel after Tehran confirms Khamenei killed

Hour of nonstop Iranian fire on central, southern Israel after Tehran confirms Khamenei killed

Air raid sirens sounded repeatedly across central and southern Israel early Saturday as Iran launched what Israeli officials described as roughly an hour of continuous fire following Tehran’s confirmation that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed.

The Israeli military said the barrage, which began around 6:15 a.m., consisted mostly of single missile launches every few minutes, many of which were intercepted by air defenses. Millions of residents were sent into protected spaces as alerts sounded across the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, Jerusalem, the Shfela, the Sharon region and parts of the Negev.

Israel’s Home Front Command later said residents in several areas, including the south and parts of central Israel, could leave protected spaces but should remain nearby.

Magen David Adom, Israel’s emergency service, said it had not received reports of direct hits or casualties from the latest salvos. Fourteen people were treated after being injured while running to shelters, and five others were hurt in similar incidents earlier in the morning.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the killing of Khamenei “will not go unanswered” and that Iran would overcome the crisis. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced what it called a “sixth wave” of attacks, claiming it had launched missiles toward 27 U.S. bases as well as Israeli targets. Those claims could not be independently verified.

Explosions were also reported in Doha, Dubai and Kuwait City, with Al Jazeera reporting interception blasts over Qatar’s capital. Pro-Iranian media outlets said launches had also targeted Jordan.