Massive weeks-long war between US, Iran could begin 'very soon,' Axios reports

Massive weeks-long war between US, Iran could begin 'very soon,' Axios reports

ByDANYA SAPERSTEIN

The United States is closer to military conflict with Iran than most Americans realize, and a massive weeks-long campaign could "begin very soon," Axios reported on Wednesday.

Such a conflict would likely involve an operation more like a war than the single-day operation in Venezuela conducted last month, the report cited "sources" as saying. Those same sources told Axios that it would likely be a joint US-Israeli campaign with a broader scope than the 12-day war last June.

The second round of talks between the United States and Iran ended on Tuesday, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Although both sides said the meetings resulted in progress, several sources told The Jerusalem Post that significant gaps remain. 

Vice President JD Vance has also addressed the talks in an interview with Fox News, saying that while Trump wants a deal, he could decide that diplomacy has "reached its natural end."

"We would very much like, as the President has said, to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation," Vance said, "but the President has all options on the table."

The US has also been steadily building up its forces within the region. More than 10 F-22 fighter jets have been deployed to the Middle East. The last time they arrived in the region was just days before Operation Midnight Hammer. The largest aircraft carrier in the US Navy, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is also on its way to the Middle East.

Axios reported that "all signs point to [Trump] pulling the trigger if talks fail."

While some US sources told Axios that the US might need more time to prepare, including Senator Lindsey Graham, who said strikes could be weeks away, others disagree.

"The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one Trump adviser told Axios.

US officials claimed that Iran has two weeks to submit a detailed proposal. Some are drawing parallels between June, when a two-week window was set for Trump to decide between continuing talks and military action three days before launching Operation Midnight Hammer.

Iran-US talks were ‘a nothing burger,’ says US official

Iran-US talks were ‘a nothing burger,’ says US official

Lazar Berman

The US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva yesterday were a “nothing burger,” a senior US official tells Channel 12. Another official says Iran has until the end of the month to agree to a package of significant concessions on its nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump is “very close” to giving orders for a major strike on Iran, US officials tell the outlet.

Meanwhile, Israel has carried out meetings at all echelons to prepare for the possibility that Trump gives a green light for a strike, Channel 12 reports. Israel also agrees with the negative assessment of the Geneva talks expressed by the US official.

“Timetables are growing shorter,” says a senior Israeli official, “and that is the case in terms of military preparedness. In the end, there is one man who will decide.”

Israel believes there is a high chance that Iran will strike Israel in the event of a US or joint US-Israeli attack on the country. The IDF Home Front Command and other emergency agencies were instructed to make all necessary preparations for such an outcome, reports Channel 12.

Over two dozen countries sending delegations to Board of Peace summit

Over two dozen countries sending delegations to Board of Peace summit — US official

Jacob Magid

Thursday’s inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington will see over two dozen countries represented, a senior US official tells The Times of Israel.

During the meeting, US President Donald Trump’s administration will provide updates regarding humanitarian assistance for Gaza, the Palestinian technocratic committee slated to replace Hamas in governing the Strip and the International Stabilization Force slated to help secure the Strip.

In addition to the US president, attendees will include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, top Trump aides Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, former British prime minister Tony Blair and the Board of Peace’s High Representative for Gaza Nickolay Mladenov, the US official says.

Observer status delegations will also be sent from countries that have not joined the Board of Peace, the US official says.

The official also pushes back on the notion that progress on the Board’s efforts in Gaza have stalled.

“We are under no illusions on the challenges regarding demilitarization, but we have been encouraged by what the mediators have reported back,” the US official says.

Turkey Accuses European Parliament Of ‘Interference’ Amid Mounting Scrutiny Over Expulsions Of Christian

Turkey Accuses European Parliament Of ‘Interference’ Amid Mounting Scrutiny Over Expulsions Of Christians

ADF

The Turkish government has formally rejected the European Parliament’s recent resolution condemning targeted expulsions from the country “carried out under unsubstantiated national-security pretexts and without due process” for foreign Christians, in addition to journalists. 

In a statement issued on 13 February, a day after the vote, Türkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the resolution as containing “unfounded allegations” and characterized it as interference in the country’s internal affairs. 

The European Parliament adopted the resolution by an overwhelming margin (502 votes in favor and 2 against) signaling broad cross-party concern over what lawmakers described as the misuse of national security frameworks to restrict fundamental rights, including freedom of religion. The resolution followed the European Court of Human Rights’ decision at the beginning of February to take up 20 cases involving foreign Christians who were expelled or banned from re-entering Türkiye. 

These cases, the majority of which are supported by ADF International, stem from the Turkish government’s use of security codes, typically reserved for terrorist activity, to designate peaceful foreign Christian residents as threats to national security and block them from entering or remaining in the country despite longstanding lawful residence. The missionaries deported come from several countries across Europe, including the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Germany. More than a dozen are originally from the United States.

The European Parliament resolution specifically addresses the expulsion of foreign Christian missionaries, all legally residing in the Türkiye and many of whom were long-term residents of the country, through security codes that have resulted in deportations, re-entry bans, and loss of residency status. Lawmakers raised concerns about the lack of transparency, limited judicial review, and restricted access to evidence in these cases. 

During the debate on the resolution European Member of Parliament Sokol (EPP) stated:  

“These deportations of Christians in Türkiye for reasons of national security are one more attack on Christians, the most persecuted religious minority around the world. (…) The EU cannot talk of human rights and then remain silent when Christians are facing problems in Africa or persecution in a neighboring country. We must stand up for freedom of religion everywhere without any double standards. (…) Türkiye must put a stop to these deportations of Christians.” 

The 20 pending cases before Europe’s top human rights court challenge the compatibility of the security-based expulsions with human rights protections for religious freedom, family life, and due process under the European Convention on Human Rights. 

The government’s use of these codes effectively labels individuals as a “threat to public order and security,” a classification normally reserved for terrorism suspects. However, those targeted have no criminal records and no evidence of unlawful conduct—the only thing that they have in common is openly practicing and sharing their Christian faith. 

The 2024 Human Rights Violation Report presented by the Protestant Church Association records 132 people who have been arbitrarily branded with an entry ban code, preventing them from entering Türkiye solely on the basis of their Christian faith. The total number of those affected is 303, according to the report. 

ADF International provides legal support to affected individuals seeking justice before the European Court of Human Rights and calls on Turkish authorities to ensure that security measures are applied consistently with international human rights obligations.

China's Unprecedented Oil Stockpiling Sparks Questions If Beijing Is Preparing For War

China's Unprecedented Oil Stockpiling Sparks Questions If Beijing Is Preparing For War

TYLER DURDEN

Almost four years ago we pointed out something striking: while the world was still busy recovering from the covid Pandemic and suffering under soaring inflation - as seemingly everything was suddenly in short supply and prices were soaring - China was busy stockpiling pretty much everything at an unprecedented pace. Quoting a JPM report from March 2022 we noted that  "while the world is short on commodities, China is not given they have started stockpiling commodities since 2019 and currently hold 80% of global copper inventories, 70% of corn, 51% of wheat, 46% of soybeans, 70% of crude oil, and over 20% of global aluminum inventories."

Almost as if China was preparing for its inevitable invasion of Taiwan.

But if anyone expected China to ease off the hoarding pedal after its massive stockpiling spree, they would be very disappointed and nowhere more so than oil. As John Kemp of JKemp Energy notes, China has been accumulating crude oil inventories to take advantage of relatively low prices and act as an emergency reserve in any future conflict with the United States and its allies.

China’s stocks of crude oil apparently increased by 54 million tonnes (about 400 million barrels or 1.1 million barrels per day) during 2025 after a similar increase in 2024. China’s massive inventory build-up has helped avert the accumulation of stocks in other areas and limited the fall in prices even as Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners have boosted production.

Inventory accumulation, Kemp writes echoing what we said years ago, has also been described as a “strategic warning indicator” that could indicate the country’s leaders are preparing for a future conflict with the United States over Taiwan.

“Energy production and stockpile buildups often precede great power industrial wars,” one analyst told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission established by the U.S. Congress.

In building strategic reserves to enable its economy to keep functioning and armed forces to keep fighting during a future conflict, the country is following long-standing precedent. 

China, of course, is not alone: policymakers and military planners in the United States, Britain, France and other countries in Western Europe as well as Japan have all focused on building oil reserves in readiness for a conflict for almost a century. Yet nobody has taken stockpiling as religiously as Beijing has in recent years. 

The apparent increase in stocks during 2024 and again in 2025 is too large to be attributed to operational needs and commercial incentives alone.

The massive accumulation appears to be "a precautionary measure in case imports are disrupted by sanctions or an embargo during any future conflict with the United States and its allies," Kemp writes.

More...