Saturday, October 17, 2026

The AI Bird-Flu Scenario


BP


A month ago, Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall laid out a scenario in Foreign Affairs. She is not a science fiction author. She was White House Homeland Security Adviser from 2021 to 2025. She coordinated the response to the 2024 H5N1 (Bird Flu) outbreak in US dairy.

She wrote:

In the foreseeable future, a terrorist group with minimal skills could access a jailbroken AI model… The group could use the model to design a new strain of H5N1 avian influenza that is more lethal and more easily spread from animals to humans than existing strains. Connecting remotely to one of the new generation of fully equipped, contract-for-service “cloud” labs, it could anonymously arrange for the virus to be built and tested and then sent to a biomanufacturing facility to be produced at scale. From there, the group could stealthily disperse the new strain through air-handling systems at major livestock farms across the United States.

Before long, the American poultry, beef, and dairy industries would suffer massive losses. When the virus inevitably jumped to the human population, it would cause severe illness and could result in hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths.

The response from U.S. public and private institutions—lacking both an integrated strategy and adequate tools—would be too slow, too uncoordinated, too underresourced, and too overwhelmed to stop the spread and mitigate the consequences. And soon, the virus would also cross borders, triggering food insecurity, widespread sickness, and mass casualties around the world.

That same day, the Belfer report she co-authored, Deterrence by Resilience, made policy recommendations responding to this, including restricting unlicensed models (AI) and unscreened print shops (biomanufacturing).

The scenario may not be that imaginative.

On 10 September 2026, Anthropic published Detecting and Countering Misuse of AI, documenting cases of people using Claude to help with questionable purposes, from assembling weaponized drones to performing gain-of-function work on H5:

Here, we present five case studies of actors using our models in ways that could support biological weapons development… In the second, a researcher in an unsupported region spent weeks planning avian influenza mammalian-adaptation experiments with Claude, but classifiers confined the work to our weakest models…

The plan involved genetic-engineering approaches aimed at introducing mutations associated with mammalian adaptation and airborne transmissibility in animal models.


They were careful to add a caveat—in the preamble, no less:

The individuals implicated in these case studies are working scientists. We do not assert that they intended harm.

Sherwood-Randall is not the first to imagine such a crisis:

  • February 2024 (Munich Security Conference): CEPI hosts a tabletop exercise entitled “Fighting ‘Smart’ Pandemics” wherein a group of senior people from health, security, and tech were presented with a scenario wherein a pathogen that appears zoonotic spreads rapidly around the world. An anarchist cell then claims they made it with AI.
  • April 2026: RAND hosts a tabletop exercise 10 times, in which participants faced “a global pandemic triggered by students’ accidental release of an AI-engineered virus.”
The scenarios differed slightly across these exercises, but the policy recommendations mirrored those in the Belfer report: limit access to the technology that can design (AI) and print (biomanufacturing) a pathogen, and create biosurveillance to flag an outbreak as engineered.

Companies like Twist Bioscience and Integrated DNA Technologies, among others, accept a customer’s description of a gene sequence and synthesize it. Both claim to screen the customer and the sequence before shipping an order of DNA, checking each gene against a database of pathogens.

There are also benchtop DNA synthesizers available for a mere $300,000 that can print short DNA without going through a screened vendor.



Friday, October 16, 2026

At Jerusalem site holy to Jews and Muslims, a fragile status quo is being erased


At Jerusalem site holy to Jews and Muslims, a fragile status quo is being erased
Ilan Ben Zion, 


A barefoot, bearded man wrapped in a prayer shawl raises his voice to a crescendo. Dozens of Jewish worshippers surrounding him respond in a chorus of amens and praises of God in Aramaic, the ancient Jewish vernacular. Several bend down on their knees, then prostrate themselves face down on the ground. An Israeli police officer, one of a half-dozen standing guard around the group, fiddles on his phone.

Just a few years ago, this scene of Jewish worshippers praying openly and vocally atop Jerusalem’s holiest of holy sites – known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound – would have been unthinkable. But under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-line government, long-standing restrictions on Jewish prayer at the contested shrine have evaporated.

This quiet shift in policy has tectonic potential. Previous rounds of violence have centered around real or perceived changes to the site’s delicate balance. The 2021 war between Israel and Hamas was fueled by clashes there. And in 2000, the second Palestinian intifada was sparked in part by a visit to the site by Israel’s then-opposition leader, Ariel Sharon, who was a candidate to be prime minister.

The shrine is the place where two ancient Jewish temples stood in antiquity, and it is considered by Jews to be the holiest spot on Earth. The Noble Sanctuary, or al-Haram al-Sharif as it’s called in Arabic, is also Islam’s third-holiest site, and home to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem’s iconic golden Dome of the Rock.

For many Israelis and Palestinians, this location is ground zero in their long-running conflict.

It has been at the spiritual epicenter of the recent war in Gaza, which began with the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel that Hamas called the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” consciously alluding to the shrine. Some religious Jews have called for the construction of a “Third Temple” to replace the golden Dome of the Rock. And since the war in Gaza began three years ago, flags, pins, necklace pendants, military uniform patches, and bumper stickers bearing the image of a Third Temple have proliferated in Israeli public spaces.


Israel captured East Jerusalem – along with the Old City and its Christian, Jewish, and Muslim holy sites – during the 1967 Middle East war. The government later annexed the portion of the city formerly controlled by Jordan and declared the entirety of Jerusalem as its national capital, a move still unrecognized by most countries. Under what was known as the Status Quo, a set of unwritten understandings between Israel and Jordan, the custodian of Jerusalem’s Muslim holy sites, Jews could visit the shrine, but only Muslims could worship there. Israeli police managed security at the site, but the Jordanian-run Islamic trust called the Waqf maintained administrative control.

That decades long arrangement is now in tatters.

The Waqf declined repeated interview requests from the Monitor.

Prominent Israeli rabbis say visiting the sacred site is prohibited. But a growing cohort of religious radicals – including Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s public security minister – advocates Jewish worship and control of the site.

“Today, we are masters of the Temple Mount,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said while visiting the site under heavy police guard in late September, during the Jewish holiday of Sukkot. “This holiday, we will pray here on the Temple Mount, on the most important place, for total victory, for complete redemption, for death to all the terrorists, and for sovereignty here on the most important place for the Jewish people.”

Mr. Netanyahu has insisted that there has been no change to the Status Quo, despite evidence to the contrary. During a recent morning visit, large groups of Jewish worshippers circumambulated the holy site under close police guard, singing psalms at full volume and openly praying.

“We have seen a radical transformation of the whole ecosphere that is the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa,” says Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli attorney whose nongovernmental organization, Terrestrial Jerusalem, tracks geopolitical developments in the city. “What we’re witnessing in recent weeks and months, accelerating, is a dismantling of Jordanian custodianship, the whittling down of their responsibilities at Al-Aqsa.”

Omar Razzaz, a former prime minister of Jordan, says what is taking place at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound is a “dangerous departure from where we stood five, 10, 20 years ago.” If there is further erosion of the old Status Quo, he says, “sacred spaces will be fields of conflict.”

Akiva Ariel heads Beyadenu, one of several groups promoting Jewish prayer at the Temple Mount. According to its figures, almost 69,000 Jewish worshippers visited the holy site last year – a nearly fivefold increase compared with a decade earlier.


The Israel Police refused a request to provide specific figures regarding Jewish worshippers visiting the site. But police statistics from early 2025 show similar growth in the number of visits over roughly the same period.

These changes to the unwritten rules at the holy site aren’t going unnoticed in the broader Muslim world, especially in neighboring Jordan. In September, King Abdullah II told the U.N. General Assembly that the kingdom of Jordan would “continue to uphold the Hashemite custodianship and historic and legal status quo at Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem.”

He also warned that the “Israeli government’s expansionist appetite is now a regional threat.”





Riots Spread From France And Belgium To Albania

Europe Is Falling: Riots Spread From France And Belgium To Albania

TYLER DURDEN


Social unrest in France, Belgium, and now Albania raises the risk of riot contagion across Europe. Young rioters' involvement gives far-left groups opportunities to exploit grievances and channel them into broader anti-government mobilization.

Local outlets are reporting that "thousands of students," a common phrase MSM corporate media outlets have used to describe the rioters, took to the streets of Albania's capital for a second day of anti-government riots on Wednesday. They set fire to part of the education ministry and attacked other government buildings, yet this suggests the unrest has little to do with classroom sizes and more to do with a coordinated far-left anti-government movement sweeping across Europe.

Riot police deployed tear gas and water cannons to disperse unruly crowds. Kids dressed in all black, usually a sign of far-left involvement, also targeted the prime minister's office, the finance and interior ministries, and nearby businesses.

"The people are very angry at the system. They need to change everything. With this corruption all around, the crime and everything else is happening. And the people now are angry. They need to change the system," demonstrator Enida Bimi told Reuters.

We must ask ourselves, in a rational world: Is the solution to a failing education system to burn it down? Well, in the far-left mindset, certaintly. 

Deputy Prime Minister Albana Koçiu called for restraint yesterday, saying Albania "does not need to burn to change." Education Minister Mirela Kumbaro said the right to protest did not justify violence against public buildings and property.

Albania's state-run news agency said sixteen people were arrested "in connection with violent acts" during riots earlier this week.

The social unrest is less about education and demonstrates how Europe has a terrible disease of far-left extremism that has infected the youth. High-level State Department officials and their European counterparts discussed this concern last summer.

Europe is embarrassing itself on the world stage yet again. It's not just that the unrest is getting out of hand and spreading; its entire progressive utopia (welfare state) is cracking and now breaking as the end game nears. This warns all Americans that welfare states like France are headed for a fiscal crisis.





Iran votes to whip citizens who spread the Gospel


Iran votes to whip citizens who spread the Gospel



An Iranian convert who goes on a Christian satellite channel to tell how he found faith may soon pay for it with 31 to 74 lashes. Last week Iran’s parliament approved Article 22 of a bill titled “Countering the Infiltration of Foreign Intelligence Services and Governments or Entities,” which makes it a crime for Iranian citizens to give interviews to, or hold conversations with, any media outlet or “media figure” that the Ministry of Intelligence has publicly designated as hostile. That list already names the leading Persian-language Christian broadcasters.

“Anybody connected to us, anybody working for us, anybody supporting us, even appearing on our channel, even going and doing a like on our social media, is a criminal, officially criminal,” said Hormoz Shariat, founder of the Dallas-area Iran Alive Ministries, in an interview with Peter Wooding of the Global News Alliance.

The ayatollahs are fighting a war against a television signal. That raises a question with roots going back 2,500 years to the Persian court of King Darius: what happens when an empire writes a law forbidding people to pray?

Under Article 22, violators face six months to two years in prison, fines, deprivation of social rights, and flogging, according to FCNN, a Persian Christian news outlet. Officials of the Islamic Republic are explicitly exempt. A regime spokesman can appear on a “hostile” channel, while a convert who shares his testimony on Mohabat TV can be flogged for it. The bill must still clear further legislative steps, including Guardian Council approval, before it becomes law.

Shariat said the regime’s aim is fear. “Another law, another fear. That’s how they control the people of Iran, passing laws and making it harder to follow [Jesus], so easier persecution,” he said. He added that satellite viewers remain beyond the regime’s reach. “The signal goes over the heads of the mullahs into people’s homes, and the government cannot stop it, and you cannot prove that you are watching it.”

The broadcasts matter because Iran has shut down nearly every other avenue for Christian worship. Since 2009, churches that offered services in Persian have been forced to stop, and pastors who kept ministering to converts in their homes have been arrested and imprisoned along with the converts themselves. Only Iran’s historic Armenian and Assyrian communities may worship, and they are barred from sharing their faith. In August, guards were posted outside a seized Tehran church to keep worshipers out.

Last week, Lida Alexani, a 58-year-old grandmother and wife of Iranian-Armenian pastor Joseph Shahbazian, was summoned to begin a 13-year sentence for “deviant proselytizing contrary to the holy religion of Islam.” Her husband is already serving a 16-year sentence for leading a house church. The couple and three converts in the same case were collectively sentenced to more than 70 years.




Iran's reported missile test puts Israel on alert


Iran's reported missile test puts Israel on alert


Reports in Arab media that Iran launched at least 30 ballistic missiles of two different types during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exercise earlier this week have raised serious concerns in Israel. The reported drill has prompted the Israeli military to heighten its alert level while maintaining maximum readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.

Israel is not only watching with concern as Iran replenishes its missile stockpiles, as recently reported by Bloomberg, but is also preparing for the possibility that an Iranian military exercise could turn into a real attack.

Alongside fears of a miscalculation that could trigger a broader conflict, direct discussions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump suggest that another strike against Iran remains under consideration. Trump himself has raised the possibility on several occasions over the past week.

The Israel Defense Forces has raised its alert level across all fronts. During a visit to the IDF's Central Command on Wednesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing. "Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased," Zamir said. "To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability."


"We have reinforced our forces and raised our level of readiness, and we continue to prepare for attempts to catch us by surprise," he added. "During this sensitive period, we must remain vigilant and prepared on every front, preserve our freedom of action and swiftly thwart threats. We pursue and combat terrorism wherever it exists. The IDF is at a high level of readiness to launch large-scale offensive operations against any party that attempts to harm Israeli civilians."

After the Americans managed to increase tanker traffic through the strait in September to nearly prewar levels, they are now facing the need to take preventive military action against Iranian attacks. Such an operation could take place in the coming days. The anticipated strikes would be limited and targeted, focusing on radar installations, missile launchers and observation posts used to detect vessels passing through the waterway.


Iran has stepped up its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz while also assisting the Houthis around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategically vital shipping route at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The apparent objective is to drive up oil prices in the US, potentially influencing the outcome of November's midterm elections.


Israeli assessments indicate that US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz would not have immediate repercussions for Israel unless they triggered a significant escalation. In that scenario, Iranian leaders could decide to deploy their recovering ballistic missile arsenal against additional targets in the Gulf states.

Beyond the Gulf, Israel is also closely monitoring developments along its northern front with Lebanon.