Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Updated: Aftershocks Follow 6.5 Quake In Southern Idaho


6.5 magnitude earthquake rattles Idaho and 6 surrounding states



There were 4.6, 3.4, and 3.6-magnitude aftershocks felt after the earthquake, rattling fears throughout Boise and the Treasure Valley.
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At 5:52 p.m. Tuesday, Idaho and states throughout the Northwest were rattled by a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, according to the USGS.
The USGS reports that the epicenter was west of Challis and 73.3 miles north of Meridian.
According to the USGS map, the epicenter of the earthquake was next to Shake Creek and Laidlow Creek in the north-central Idaho mountains.
The USGS had a delay in reporting the earthquake because of social distancing, according to Paul Bodin, the head of the University of Washington seismology lab, who talked to our sister station in Seattle, KING.
People in six different states reportedly felt the 6.5 magnitude earthquake, according to the USGS's intensity map.
According to National Weather Service Boise, this earthquake was the second strongest earthquake in the world for the last 30 days.

"We don't hear that much about Idaho earthquakes because they are fairly unusual," Bodin said. "The last one that was this big was back in 1983. It was in Borah Peak."
The earthquake came less than two weeks after a major quake rattled Utah, Idaho's neighbor to the south. That 5.7-magnitude earthquake struck just outside Salt Lake City, damaging buildings and spurring evacuations.
The USGS said the earthquake's depth was 10 kilometers.
Boise Mayor Lauren McLean tweeted out "Boise, yes you did feel an #earthquake. City officials are checking all our facilities and public safety officers are conducting structural checks downtown and in our neighborhoods."





6.5-magnitude earthquake in southern Idaho felt in Spokane


Spokane shook Tuesday afternoon after a magnitude 6.5 earthquake hit southern Idaho.

The United States Geological Survey measured the earthquake at a depth of 10 miles below Earth’s surface just before 5 p.m. 

The center of the quake was located about 45 miles west of Challis, Idaho, and it was felt as far away as Calgary, Alberta.
There were no reports of damage in Spokane as of about 5:40 p.m., according to a tweet from Spokane Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer. He said people should call 911 with reports of gas leaks and unstable structures.

Brett Woolley, a restaurant owner in Stanley, said he heard earthquake coming before he felt it.

“I heard the roar, and at first it sounded like the wind but then the roar was tremendous,” Woolley said about 10 minutes after the earthquake. “The whole house was rattling, and I started to panic. I’m sitting here perfectly still and the water next to me is still vibrating.”






 A large earthquake struck north of Boise on Tuesday evening, with people across a large area reporting shaking.
The U.S. Geological Survey reports the magnitude 6.5 temblor struck just before 5 p.m. It was centered 73 miles northeast of Meridian, Idaho, near the rural mountain town of Stanley.
Marcus Smith, an emergency room health unit coordinator at St. Luke’s Wood River Medical Center, said the hospital, about 65 miles south of the epicenter, shook but the quake didn’t interfere with the treatment of any patients. The hospital in Blaine County is on the front line of Idaho’s coronavirus outbreak, in a region with the highest per-capita rates of known COVID-19 cases in the nation outside of New York City and surrounding counties.


Horowitz: Quarantine Or Tyranny?


Horowitz: Is this quarantine or tyranny?




We’ve simply never done this before in our history. These are not mere quarantine laws that supporters cite to justify what is going on today. Quarantine laws traditionally separate an individual or an entire group of people from the general population. What we are doing now, however, is locking down the entire general population.


Whether they use the term or not, governors are ordering nothing short of martial law, shutting down nearly all businesses and churches to the point that there will be no public services for Easter and Passover under any circumstance, and unemployment will surpass the levels of the Great Depression. 

Yes, there are times when that might be necessary, but the question should require a debate, transparency, time limits, and the production of more evidence about the value of these additional measures, which will undoubtedly grow legs in the coming days.

One might retort that in this circumstance, with modern travel, the disease is already rampant everywhere. But that is circular logic. In that case, it casts doubt on the entire premise of categorical lockdown, given that this has already spread to every state. Locking everyone down indoors is not a proven method of quarantine in this circumstance, where the virus is already ubiquitous.

Moreover, most of the past court cases were over clearly constructed statutes. These edicts are nothing more than memos unilaterally drawn up by governors and mayors every few days. They are arbitrarily constructed and enforced. Mass transit, the ultimate virus spreader, is still open, yet single businesses with few people in the office are closed, and individuals just driving alone in their cars for pleasure or strolling in a state park can get pulled over by a cop. Marijuana shops are considered essential in California, but not gun shops. So many important medical procedures are banned, while abortion in many states is still considered “essential.”
There’s got to be some limit. As the Supreme Court said in the landmark Shelton v. Tucker (1960) case, “Even [when] the governmental purpose [is] legitimate and substantial, that purpose cannot be pursued by means that broadly stifle fundamental personal liberties when the end can be more narrowly achieved.” It can’t be unlimited and indiscriminate, and pronouncing the death penalty on jobs, the economy, and the mental health of hundreds of millions of people is as broad as it gets.

Remember, these governors are just getting warmed up. We’re only two weeks into this phase. At this pace, if we don’t rise up and demand answers, there is no limit to what these politicians might do with their divine right of kings. It’s appalling that Congress and state legislatures are in recess indefinitely, as random executives – from governors and mayors to county supervisors and sheriffs – rule the nation by fiat. It’s time for some real debate and accountability with public input and hearings (remotely, if needed).

All of us are willing to sacrifice for public safety – a lot. But there are limits, and there are serious questions about whether those sacrifices are even helping, or in some instances, downright hurting. Either way, we will never recover from this devastating blow to liberty.

As Patrick Henry warned in 1788, “Show me that age and country where the rights and liberties of the people were placed on the sole chance of their rulers being good men, without a consequent loss of liberty! I say that the loss of that dearest privilege has ever followed, with absolute certainty, every such mad attempt.”




Swarm Of 650 Quakes Hit Across Utah And Surrounding Areas Over Two-Week Period


Swarm of 650 earthquakes rattles Utah, Idaho and California, experts say





More than 600 earthquakes have hit across Utah and surrounding areas after a 5.7-magnitude quake struck near Salt Lake City about two weeks ago, according to University of Utah Seismograph Stations. 

As of Monday morning, the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, or UUSS, recorded 658 earthquakes as part of a series of aftershocks. 

On March 18, a 5.7-magnitude earthquake struck Magna, west of Salt Lake City, McClatchy News reported. The quake was felt from Idaho to California, according to McClatchy News.


As of 11:00 am (MDT) on March 30, we’ve recorded 658 earthquakes as part of the Magna sequence. The count includes 3 in the M4 range, 20 in the M3 range, and 122 in the M2 range.
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Washington State Sees 20% Drop In Hospitalizations Of CV Patients


Washington State Sees 20 Percent Drop in Hospitalizations of Patients with Coronavirus-Like Symptoms



Hospitals in Washington State have experienced a 20 percent drop in the hospitalization of patients exhibiting symptoms related to the novel coronavirus, according to the state’s Department of Health (DOH).
Hospitalizations for individuals experiencing symptoms related to the coronavirus have been on the rise in Washington for a month, jumping from 61 patients during the week of February 29 and growing to 251 by March 21. However, as of March 28 the number dipped down to 193.

The Seattle Times reported:
The state Department of Health (DOH) survey, covering the seven-day period that ended Saturday, tallied 193 admissions of patients with symptoms of fever, cough and shortness of breath, down from 251 the previous week. This also marks the end of a monthlong rise in these admissions, which dates back to the last week in February, when only 61 hospitalizations of COVID-19-like illness were counted in Washington state.


Another Pastor Arrested For Holding Church Services


Another pastor arrested for holding church services in defiance of coronavirus bans…


A pastor in Louisiana has been arrested for continually holding church services despite the governor’s order that there be no gatherings of more than ten:


The pastor of a church in Central, La. will be charged with six misdemeanor counts of disobeying the powers of the governor, prosecutors said Tuesday.
On Tuesday, March 31, Chief Roger Corcoran with Central Police Department issued Mark Anthony Spell, (Aka: Tony Spell), Pastor of Life Tabernacle Church in Central, a Misdemeanor Summons for six counts of violating the governor’s executive order (LA R.S. 29:724E) following his decision to host multiple large gatherings.
“Over the last two weeks I have worked with the Sheriff, State Police the State Fire Marshal, Reverend Tony Perkins and others to address this matter outside of legal action. Mr. Spell made his intentions to continue to violate the law clear,” he said in a statement. “Instead of showing the strength and resilience of our community during this difficult time, Mr. Spell has chosen to embarrass us for his own self-promotion.
“Mr. Spell will have his day in court where he will be held responsible for his reckless and irresponsible decisions that endangered the health of his congregation and our community.
“This is not an issue over religious liberty, and it’s not about politics. We are facing a public health crisis and expect our community’s leaders to set a positive example and follow the law.”
East Baton Rouge District Attorney Hillar Moore says one count was issued for each time Spell allegedly held a gathering at his church that exceeded the limit set by the governor.
Spell has continually disobeyed orders by Governor John Bel Edwards that large groups should not gather during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. He has held multiple church services with hundreds in attendance.
According to the Washington Examiner, one service that was broken up by authorities had over 300 in attendance. Other services attracted as many as 1,000.
They also report that Spell “faces a $500 fine and up to six months in prison.” Six months in prison sounds egregious to me, especially for doing something that is a right protected by our Constitution.


Syrian Media: Israeli War Planes Attack Airbase In Homs


Syrian media says Israeli war planes attack near Homs
 TOI STAFF and AP



Syrian air defenses in the central province of Homs opened fire Tuesday night on missiles launched from what state media claimed were Israeli warplanes.
Syrian State TV said the warplanes fired the missiles while flying in Lebanese airspace. The outlet said the warplanes targeted a Syrian army position without saying where exactly. It said some of the missiles had been shot down, though Syrian media has been known to make such claims falsely.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), an opposition war monitor, said Israeli warplanes fired eight missiles at al-Shayrat air base in Homs province. It said explosions were heard and believed to have been caused by anti-aircraft defenses while intercepting these strikes, but gave no further details.

There was no immediate comment from Israel.


If the target was al-Shayrat base it would be the second time this month that the Israel Defense Forces has reportedly struck the site which is said to be used by Iran as a forward base for bringing weapons into the country.
On March 5, according to Syrian opposition sources, a series of Israeli airstrikes targeted four Hezbollah-linked sites in central and southern Syria.
SOHR said the Israeli attack targeted two military airports near the city of Homs in western-central Syria — al-Shayrat and al-Dabaa — as well as two locations in the area of Quneitra, across from Israel’s Golan Heights.


Syria often reports violations of its airspace, which it frequently attributes to the Israeli Air Force. Tel Aviv occasionally admits to carrying out some of these air raids, claiming that it targets Iranian military forces allegedly stationed in the country, despite both Tehran and Damascus denying their presence.
Syrian air defences have intercepted Israeli missiles flying through the airspace above the city of Homs, Syria’s SANA news agency reported. The agency added that none of the missiles succeeded in reaching their targets as a result.
Damascus has not officially commented on SANA's report.
Prior to the attack, Lebanon’s Sham FM reported that Israeli jets were spotted flying low above the country's Kesrouan province, which lies on the way between the territory of Israel and the Syrian city of Homs. Alleged witnesses claim that the jets fired missiles while travelling through Lebanese airspace.


Lockdowns Now Triggering Civil Unrest And Violent Crime


It’s Only a Matter of Time Until COVID-19 Lockdowns Lead to Civil Unrest and Violent Crime



The United States of America is basically closed for business, leaving citizens jobless, broke, and without options. We’re facing restrictions on movement the likes of which our nation has never seen. The stores that are open have never fully restocked after the “panic buying” of previous weeks, leading to shelves barren of things like meat, flour, toilet paper, and rice.


It’s only a matter of time before these issues combine to become the flashpoint that leads to an explosion of civil unrest and violent crime.


Unemployment skyrocketed, with 3.3 million claims last week, and the Fed estimates that number to climb to a whopping 47 million due to the virus. Many of these jobs may not come back after the Covid-19 virus has run its course through the nation – businesses small and large are going to be defaulting on their April rent payments, and many simply won’t be able to catch up later.

So far, a lot of people in the area where I’m staying seem to be treating this break of business like a surprise staycation. It’s nice to see families out walking together, playing games, and spending time with the people they love.
But this happiness may be shortlived. Despite generous government-mandated disaster pay, unemployment, and stimulus checks, the money may not arrive in time for former employees, self-employed people, and gig workers to pay their personal bills. And when the money does arrive, for many folks it isn’t going to be the same amount they were earning before the shutdowns. Most people don’t have emergency funds, so things will be dire in short order.
Of course, this affects landlord, mortgage companies, utility companies, retail businesses…the list could go on and on.

A lot of people are blaming “hoarders” and preppers for the shortages seen in stores. Of course, it’s nonsense to blame preppers because we’ve been buying our things over a course of years. And honestly, if it was only “panic buyers” causing problems, wouldn’t the stores be replenished by now? After all, people have hardly been able to shop for two weeks in many states due to social distancing measures.
In reality, there are major issues with the supply chain, a problem many folks aren’t seeing because they’re not at the store. Distribution systems are breaking down.
A source at a Walmart Superstore recently confided that the trucks were only delivering a fraction of the items needed to restock shelves. Imports aren’t arriving in California ports, at least not anywhere close to the degree they were before.
And because more people are eating at home than ever before, the demand on grocery stores has increased dramatically. This also comes at a time after farmers have been driven out of business by the trade war. (source) We have actual shortages here, and it isn’t just due to “panic buying.” That only exposed the dangers of the Just In Time delivery philosophy used by retailers.
The third worrisome factor is extreme restrictions on movement. Never in my lifetime have I witnessed such a thing in the United States as we’re seeing now.
Texas and Florida have checkpoints where they’re testing travelers for health problems, escorting them to quarantine, or turning them away. Rhode Island police went so far as to go door-to-door with the National Guard, searching for “New Yorkers” who had fled the virus in their home state.
Most states have closed non-essential businesses and schools for the foreseeable future. Local authorities are beginning to crack down on groups of people and innocent Americans risk being questioned when they leave their homes to walk the dog or go to the store. Last week, thousands of Americans considered essential workers were given “travel papers” to show the authorities if they’re stopped when they are going to work. Travel papers. In the United States of America.

If you can’t satisfy the requirements laid out by your state or local government, you could face fines and even misdemeanor charges for breaking stay-at-home orders.


Some places, like Cincinnati, are limiting in-person police responses to crimes “to reduce unnecessary contact between officers and the public to reduce the spread of COVID-19.”
During the coronavirus outbreak and beginning Tuesday morning, Cincinnati police officers will no longer respond in person to the following reports: criminal damaging, dog bites, lost property, lost or stolen license plates, phone harassment, property damage or found property.
Police will no longer respond to assault reports, unless a suspect is still present or the victim requires medical attention, breaking and entering reports unless a suspect is still present, menacing reports “unless suspect is expected or threatens to return or is part of the elements of domestic violence” or theft reports “where there is no possibility of immediate apprehension.” (source)
How long before officers just stop coming in to work and instead, stay home to take care of their families? And, can you blame them if they do?
Italy has begun to see chaos. People are running out of food, money, and patience.
Videos are appearing on social media of people struggling to cope with the effects of the lockdown. In Palermo, Sicily, police have been forced to head to supermarkets after reports of people stealing food to feed themselves, and groups have appeared in recent days looking to organise raids on supermarkets.
A video has been widely shared around Italy showing a father beside his young daughter, who is eating a solitary slice of bread, telling the Italian primer minister Giuseppe Conte “We’ve already been inside for 15 to 20 days and we are at our limit. Just like my daughter, other children in a few days won’t be able to eat this slice of bread. Rest assured you will regret this, because we are going to have a revolution”. (source)
It isn’t just an Italian problem. As soon as restrictions were partially lifted in China, citizens began to riot, beating police with their own shields and overturning police cars.
And if you think that is far-fetched, then why are retailers across the country boarding up their windows? Zero Hedge reports:
In Beverly Hills, the Pottery Barn and West Elm stores near Rodeo Drive were spotted with boards across the windows according to TMZ
…Meanwhile, stores in New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, Paris, Vancouver and elsewhere were similarly boarded up. (source)



Sweden: Will Let CV Run Its Course Without Dramatic Measures


Sweden Decides to Let Coronavirus to Run Its Course in Country Without Destroying Its Economy or Future






Sweden is taking a different approach in battling the coronavirus pandemic.
The country remains open for business and life goes on as usual with few restrictions.
The political leaders are placing responsibility on the individual.


Sweden has taken a slightly different approach to coronavirus than the rest of the world, allowing life to go on as ‘normal’ with a few exceptions.

Unlike neighboring Denmark – which has restricted meetings to 10 people or less, Swedes are still going out to nightclubs, hanging out with friends, and even ‘enjoying ice creams beneath a giant Thor statue in Mariatorget square,’ according to the BBC.
No one is alone in this crisis, but each person has a heavy responsibility.”


'Television Is Not Science' - The Reality Of COVID-19 vs Television Ratings


How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear




I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and National Health Service consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science — fields which, all too often, are characterized by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 — so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

At the time of writing, the UK’s 422 deaths and 8,077 known cases give an apparent death rate of 5 percent. This is often cited as a cause for concern, contrasted with the mortality rate of seasonal flu, which is estimated at about 0.1 percent. But we ought to look very carefully at the data. Are these figures really comparable?
Most of the UK testing has been in hospitals, where there is a high concentration of patients susceptible to the effects of any infection. As anyone who has worked with sick people will know, any testing regime that is based only in hospitals will over-estimate the virulence of an infection. Also, we’re only dealing with those COVID-19 cases that have made people sick enough or worried enough to get tested. There will be many more unaware that they have the virus, with either no symptoms, or mild ones.
That’s why, when Britain had 590 diagnosed cases, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the real figure was probably between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, 10 to 20 times higher. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus is likely to be 10 to 20 times lower, say 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. That puts the COVID-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu.
But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded. If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Now look at what has happened since the emergence of COVID-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include COVID-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for COVID-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.
In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for COVID-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the COVID-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between COVID-19 causing death, and COVID-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making COVID-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of COVID-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting COVID-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death.

Let us also consider the COVID-19 graphs, showing an exponential rise in cases — and deaths. They can look alarming. But if we tracked flu or other seasonal viruses in the same way, we would also see an exponential increase. We would also see some countries behind others, and striking fatality rates. The United States Centers for Disease Control, for example, publishes weekly estimates of flu cases. The latest figures show that since September, flu has infected 38 million Americans, hospitalized 390,000 and killed 23,000. This does not cause public alarm because flu is familiar.

Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organization for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 percent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 percent. As population testing becomes more widespread elsewhere in the world, we will find a greater and greater proportion of cases where infections have already occurred and caused only mild effects. In fact, as time goes on, this will become generally truer too, because most infections tend to decrease in virulence as an epidemic progresses.

One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.


It certainly seems reasonable, now, that a degree of social distancing should be maintained for a while, especially for the elderly and the immune-suppressed. But when drastic measures are introduced, they should be based on clear evidence. In the case of Covid-19, the evidence is not clear. The UK’s lockdown has been informed by modeling of what might happen. More needs to be known about these models. Do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions, changing virulence, the effects of death certification and other factors? Tweak any of these assumptions and the outcome (and predicted death toll) can change radically.

Much of the response to COVID-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before. The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science.

The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?

Governments everywhere say they are responding to the science. The policies in the UK are not the government’s fault. They are trying to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given. But governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science. We have decided on policies of extraordinary magnitude without concrete evidence of excess harm already occurring, and without proper scrutiny of the science used to justify them.