ANALYSIS: Israel and the Growing Chaos in Syria
Indicators suggest major Israeli military action against Iran-led forces in Syria is just a matter of time.
This analysis is about the rapidly deteriorating situation in Syria, where the ever-increasing chaos has now also increased the likelihood of conflict between the Israeli army and the militias controlled by Iran, as you will see.
In the night from Saturday to Sunday, four Israeli F-16 warplanes carried out a new attack on a target in Syria.
The sound of the planes’ roaring engines was clearly audible in northeastern Israel, and an hour later the first reports of the new attack appeared on the media forum News Now, which keeps track of all news reports published daily in the world.
Oddly enough, the Israel Air Force (IAF) action was initially not reported by the Israeli media, as is usual.
That changed when it became known that the Israeli army was holding an unannounced surprise exercise in the far north of Israel.
The exercise was dubbed “Warm Winter 2,” and 13,000 soldiers, including 5,000 reservists, took part in the drill.
The three-day exercise, which included massive participation by the IAF, came after Israel on Saturday warned the Lebanese government that it was mulling an attack on Beirut International Airport because Iranian civilian aircraft have started transporting sophisticated weapons directly to Lebanon.
Iran is apparently looking for alternative routes to supply weapons to Hezbollah after the IAF repeatedly blocked the supply lines through Syria.
It also became clear on Sunday that the threat of Israeli intervention in Syria has become more real.
First, it became clear that the strike by the four IAF F-16 fighters was directed against a radar station in Tel Qalib near the Al-Suwayda region.
The radar was part of anti-aircraft batteries manned by Hezbollah terrorists and members of Iranian backed-militias who were disguised as Syrian army soldiers.
Then there was a second indication of the possibility of Israeli intervention in southwest Syria.
Also on Sunday, Hezbollah began moving heavy weapons and troops it had stationed in the area around Damascus and from the area around the city of Halab (Aleppo).
The troops and weapons were transferred to other areas in southwest Syria, probably closer to the border with Israel.
Israeli media then reported that Hezbollah “fears” an Israeli attack, but this claim does not seem to fit with the situation on the ground.
Hezbollah has long been preparing for war with Israel and has succeeded in modernizing a part of its missile arsenal with help from Iran.
The Lebanese terror organization has also transferred its elite Radwan unit to the border with Israel in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, has repeatedly warned against Hezbollah’s activities in southern Lebanon. The international peacekeeping force says it is intimidated by Hezbollah and is struggling to carry out its tasks due to the presence of the terrorist group in its mandate area.
Under UN Security Council Resolution 1702, Hezbollah is forbidden to take up positions below the Litani River in southern Lebanon, but clearly doesn’t abide by the resolution.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also visited Damascus two weeks ago and held talks with Assad.
Such unusual visits to Assad by the Hezbollah leadership in the past have proved to be a clear indication of imminent action against Israel.
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