Escalation In Ukraine Inevitable: Then What?

Rickards: Putin Doesn’t Bluff

James Rickards

 We could be entering a very dangerous period.

First off, the situation on the ground in Ukraine is best understood as a competition between the narrative and reality.

The narrative consists of what you hear from mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, and official sources in the U.K., France, Germany and both EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels.

The narrative says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, AFU, have beaten back Russian forces and reoccupied Kherson, which lies strategically on the Dnipro River, Kyiv’s main access to the Black Sea.

Based on these advances, the narrative says that Russia is in retreat, Russian troops are demoralized, Putin is in jeopardy of being replaced and complete victory for Ukraine is just a matter of time.

The narrative is then used as a basis for increased financial aid from the United States (over $60 billion and growing) and increased weapons shipments from NATO members.

But as I’ve explained recently, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is almost completely at odds with the Western narrative.

In the meantime, Russia is preparing to launch a massive counteroffensive.

It’s completed its 300,000-man mobilization, with over 180,000 of those troops now deployed behind Russian lines in combat formations. The remaining 120,000 troops will arrive soon. This brings total Russian strength up to about 30 divisions.

Once again, Col. Macgregor:

The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities…The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened nine months ago on Feb. 24, 2022.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian strength has been greatly diminished due to high casualty rates and being stretched thin.

If successful, the upcoming counteroffensive would give Russia control of the entire coast from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It would also give Russia control of the Dnipro River, which separates the western part of Ukraine from the eastern part and connects Kyiv to the Black Sea.

Ukraine would be left as a rump state between Kyiv and Lviv. Almost all the industrial, technological and natural resource capacity of former Ukraine would be under Russian control.

Whether any of this succeeds remains to be seen. Still, it is definitely coming, and the situation will grow more violent and chaotic.

The question then becomes, would the U.S. stand by and watch Russia defeat Ukraine militarily? Will it become more directly involved in ways that could risk actual conflict with Russia?

After all, the U.S. is essentially fighting a proxy war against Russia. Ukraine is merely a means to an end as far as the U.S. goes. The U.S. has committed significant resources to defeat Russia, and a Russian victory would further undermine U.S. credibility in the world.

The chances of escalation are therefore significant.

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