Monday, January 17, 2011

Lebanon: Indictments Today?

There are several articles today from the Middle East which speculate that indictments will be issued - indictments which reveal Hezbollah's role in the murders of former prime minister Rafik Hariri . If thats the case, we need to be paying close attention, as this could set off a LOT of turmoil in the region:

Amid LEbanon unrest, UN tribunal expected to blame Hezbollah for Hariri murder

The international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is expected to file indictments on Monday against those it believes are responsible for the murder.

Lead prosecutor Daniel Bellemare will bring the indictments before Judge Daniel Fransen for a preliminary review. Fransen was appointed to the post by the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

The tribunal is expected to argue that Hezbollah agents, including some of the more senior figures in the Shi'ite Muslim organization, were involved in the 2005 assassination.

Fransen will likely review the documents over a period of six to 10 weeks and then decide on the legal steps to be taken.

So what does this mean, exactly?

The indictments are considered to be a historic event for Lebanon, considering the serious accusations expected to be directed against the country's most powerful group and militia. The tribunal's conclusions are expected to deal a severe blow to the group which, since 1992, has worked to present itself as a patriotic Lebanese organization.

The indictments will be presented at the same time that a new prime minister is appointed in Lebanon. Hariri's supporters maintain that Lebanese President Michel Suleiman will assign him the task of forming a new government, since he has a majority in parliament.

At this time it is also unclear how Hezbollah will respond to the indictments which are expected to point directly to Mustafa Badr al-Din, son-in-law of the former Hezbollah strongman Imad Mughniyeh, who likely also had a role in the Hariri assassination.

Also see:

Hariri tribunal results expected; Nasrallah lashes out

It is unclear as to whether or not these indictments will be made public; the articles did not specify this aspect. Perhaps it is assumed that they will. Either way, today could prove to be very interesting as these indictments are issued. We'll be watching closely.


Anonymous said...

Just heats barak resigned from the labor party. Is this a big deal? I'd like to hear your thoughts.

Anonymous said...

heard, not heats. haha, sorry.

Anonymous said...

"Execution of the plans that call for driving out Jews from parts of Judea and Samaria would involve evicting at least 128,000 Jews - 16 times the number evicted in the 2005 Gaza 'Disengagement Plan.'"

Has a "conditioning" process begun.

Scott said...

As far as Barak - as best as I can gather, its more logistical than anything - and weakens the liberal contingency. They will still be aligned with Netanyahu, just under a different name...Thats my take anyway.

Expected Imminently said...

Mine too.