Professor Sergey Karaganov is informally known in influential foreign policy circles as the “Russian Kissinger” – with the extra bonus of not having to carry a “war criminal” tag from Vietnam and Cambodia to Chile and beyond.
Karaganov is the dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He’s also the honorary chairman of Russia’s Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
In December 2018, I had the pleasure of being received at Karaganov’s office in Moscow for a one-on-one conversation essentially about Greater Eurasia – the Russian path for Eurasia integration.
Now Karaganov has expanded his main insights for an Atlanticist made in Italy vehicle usually more distinguished for its maps than its predictable “analyses” straight from a NATO press release.
Even noting, correctly, that the EU is a “profoundly inefficient institution” on a slow path towards dissolution – and that’s a massive understatement – Karaganov observes that Russia-EU relations are on their way to a relative normalization.
This is something that has been actively discussed in Brussels corridors for months now. Not exactly the agenda envisaged by the US Deep State – or the Trump administration, for that matter. The degree of exasperation with Team Trump’s antics is unprecedented.
Still, as Karaganov recognizes: “Western democracies don’t know how to exist without an enemy.” Enter NATO’s routine secretary-general Stoltenberg’s platitudes on the Russian “threat.”
Even as Russia’s trade with Asia is now equivalent to trade with the EU, a new “threat” emerged in Europe: China.
An Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China was just invented last week as a new demonization platform, congregating representatives from Japan, Canada, Australia, Germany, the UK, Norway and Sweden as well as members of the European Parliament.
China “as led by the Chinese Communist Party,” is to be faced as a “threat” to “Western values” – the same old triad of democracy, human rights and neoliberalism. The paranoia embodied in the dual Russia-China “threat” is nothing but a graphic illustration of the prime Grand Chessboard clash: NATO vs Eurasia integration.
A great Asian power
Karaganov breaks down the crucial Russia-China strategic partnership to an easily absorbed formula: As much as Beijing finds strong support on Russia’s strategic power as a counterpunch to the US, Moscow can count on China’s economic might.
He recalls the crucial fact that when Western pressure on Russia was at its peak after Maidan and the Crimea referendum, “Beijing offered Moscow virtually unlimited credit, but Russia decided to brave the situation on its own.”
One of the subsequent benefits is that Russia-China abandoned their competition in Central Asia – something I saw for myself in my travels late last year.
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