Egon von Greyerz:
If you want to understand the future, don’t spend your life preparing and constantly revising an Excel sheet with masses of economic data. Collective human behaviour is extremely predictable, but not by spreadsheet analysis, rather by studying history.
There is nothing new under the sun. So why is there so much time and money wasted around the world to make economic forecasts that are no better than a random job by a few chimps? Instead, give some lateral thinkers a few history books and let them study the rise and decline of the major empires in history. That will tell them more about long term economic forecasts than any spreadsheet. After a 50 year decline of the US economy and the dollar, we still hear about the V-shaped recovery being imminent. On what planet do these people live who believe that a world on the cusp of an economic and social collapse is going to see a miraculous recovery out of the blue?
This is the problem with a system which is totally fake and dependent on constant flow of stimulus, even though it has zero value. Most people are fooled and believe it is real.
We are now in the final stages of the end game. The end of the end could be extended affairs or they could be extremely quick. Most declines of major cycles are drawn out and this one has lasted half a century. During that time the dollar is down 50% against the DM/Euro and 78% vs the Swiss franc. And US debt has gone up 65x since 1971, from $400B to $26T. A collapsing currency and surging debts are how all empires end…
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