Fragile Iran 'Pause' Shattered As US Base In Jordan Comes Under Attack, Oil Soars

Fragile Iran 'Pause' Shattered As US Base In Jordan Comes Under Attack, Oil Soars

 TYLER DURDEN

Iranian state media in the overnight hours (local) are reporting fresh apparent Iranian missile attacks in Jordan. A "US base in Jordan was possibly targeted" after reports of explosions there, Fars and IRIB report. Tehran officials have insisted they have not requested US talks following the prior nearly two straight weeks of fighting, though a 'pause' took effect last Friday when President Trump ordered a halt to US airstrikes. The day was filled with headline hype of a potential 'resurrected' MoU deal. Once again these 'deal is close' headlines prove misleading and premature. CENTCOM is confirming on the heels of the Iranian media reporting:

• Senior American official: Iran launched missiles toward an American base in Jordan (Axios)
• CENTCOM: IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted

Adding to the uncertainty and jitters of already sensitive global oil, Iraqi militants on Tuesday fired projectiles on Saudi Arabia for a second day, also amid the ongoing missile threat from Yemeni Houthis. According to the Associated Press:

Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that it shot down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq for a second day, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have forced a Saudi oil tanker to turn around as part of their self-styled blockade of the kingdom.

The attacks underscored lingering tensions despite a period of calm between the United States and Iran, neither of which has announced attacks for days following weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi Defense Ministry said in a statement that air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that had attempted to target petroleum facilities in the nation’s eastern region. It said the attacks were “once again launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-affiliated terrorist militias.”

Oil climbing on the headlines of the rare pro-Tehran aggression during a 'pause':

WTI OIL JUMPS 5% AS US INTERCEPTS IRANIAN ATTACK ON ITS TROOPS

Iran has reaffirmed that if Oman does not agree to its terms for the Strait of Hormuz, the the vital oil transit waterway will remain closed, per Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister. This also as things are again heating up in the Red Sea region, with the Houthis late Tuesday announcing they've once again targeted a Saudi oil tanker for violating the blockade. Reuters reports:

Yemen’s Houthis claim to have fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, accusing the vessel of violating what they describe as their maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and ignoring warning calls.

The Iran-aligned group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, claims the vessel was forced to turn back.

According to separate reporting, China is holding direct negotiations with Yemen's Houthis to ensure safe passage for its ships through the southern Red Sea.

Iran says it hasn't sought US talks in past 16-17 days, reports Irib News

And a US CENTCOM update on its latest figures: it says that as of Tuesday the US military has redirected 18 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded another two to "ensure full compliance of the US blockade against Iran." The latest from Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at the White House:

Channel 12 on a senior Israeli official: Netanyahu confirmed to Trump that additional strikes on rehabilitated Iranian nuclear facilities are unavoidable

More vessels reportedly turning away from planned routes after Houthi threats:

Here we go again... despite no evident change in war posturing on either side, and despite shipping traffic still largely at a complete standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, Fox News is out with claims that the failed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) could be 'resurrected'... bringing us back to the 'deal is close' constant headlines of earlier this summer (though of course the sides were never in reality close - and simply returned to a wider bombing campaign)...

"Mediators of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East believe the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal that would resurrect the failed memorandum of understanding, according to The Times of Israel," Fox writes, based on the earlier Israeli media article. Negotiators from Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar have been haggling over an Oman-proposed Strait of Hormuz management plan. It will involve fee-collection and is backed by the Gulf states, supposedly. The timing of all of this interesting given Trump is currently hosting Netanyahu at the White House. More from Fox:

 Iran and Oman — both of which are situated on the Strait of Hormuz — have reportedly signed off on the proposal advanced by the mediators.

The two sources said the White House was waiting to make a decision until after President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.

Meanwhile...

JMIC: DATA INDICATES ZERO TANKERS IN EITHER DIRECTION OF HORMUZ

Still, the return to deal 'optimism' has pushed oil prices down further - which is perhaps the entire point of US officials anonymously hyping that a deal is 'close' once again.

Why Did Iran Strike Jordan?

Ukraine-Iran Conflict Nexus Would Overstretch US Military and Economic Capacity

Ukraine-Iran Conflict Nexus Would Overstretch US Military and Economic Capacity

Sputnik

Volodymyr Zelensky’s attempt to merge the Ukrainian and Iranian conflicts through a Caspian Sea strike came with impeccable timing – just ahead of his US visit, former Pentagon senior security policy analyst Michael Maloof tells Sputnik.

"Zelensky grabbed that as an opportunity for his very limited PR purpose of showing Washington and Europe that he’s a team player," Maloof says.

There are also “definite Israeli fingerprints all over this operation”: Zelensky “was put up to it” by the CIA and Mossad, according to the pundit.

But “if anything, these two conflicts are showing the limitations of US power projection" – the US is overextended, lacking the money and resources not only for military hardware but also for keeping energy markets in balance, Maloof notes.

"If Zelensky even attempts — or is even partially successful — in merging these two conflicts, that really stretches, overstretches US resources to the point where the US will not be able to manage or assist on both fronts. Not only in terms of sales of weapons to Europeans to then sell them on to Ukrainians, but also directly in providing weapons to US forces who are directly battling Iranian forces."

Ukraine’s Attack on Iranian Ship in Caspian Sea is Act of Aggression - Russian MFA

Live Updates: Earthquake in Japan caused buildings to collapse as dozens reportedly injured

Live Updates: Earthquake in Japan caused buildings to collapse as dozens reportedly injured

NBC News

What we know

• Multiple people are believed to have been killed after an explosion at a mall following today’s earthquake, local media reported, citing police.
• With a magnitude of 6.8 and depth of 10 kilometers, or just more than 6 miles, the quake's epicenter was in Kumamoto prefecture, on the southwestern end of the country. 
• Aerial footage showed a derailed cargo train, collapsed towers at an industrial plant and a small building on fire.
• Japan sits on the “Ring of Fire,” where several tectonic plates converge and tremors take place almost constantly, making it one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world.

Dozens reported injured, including at a nursing home, according to NHK

About 80 people hurt during the earthquake were being treated at the Yatsushiro Northern Regional Medical Center in Hikawa, a town in the Kumamoto prefecture, as of Tuesday night, according to NHK. 

The outlet also reported that around 10 people were also hurt at a nursing home in the same town.

A staff member at Hayao-en Special Nursing Home for the Elderly told NHK that she was at her desk when the building began to shake violently. 

“I clung to my desk, but the shaking was so strong I couldn’t keep my balance,” the person, who was not identified, said, according to NHK. “Residents in wheelchairs fell over and a staff member fell on me, cutting my arm and causing bleeding. About 10 people were injured, but there are no serious injuries.”

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Netanyahu Arrives In Washington As The Iranian Regime Says ‘No Path Remains Other Than Jihad’

Netanyahu Arrives In Washington As The Iranian Regime Says ‘No Path Remains Other Than Jihad’

Erick Stakelbeck

The Bibi is back. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Monday ahead of a crucial White House meeting with President Trump. Both men will also attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham, who was a great friend and supporter of Israel.

It’s the eighth meeting between the two leaders since President Trump returned to office in January 2025, and the stakes could not be higher. After nearly two weeks of massive strikes against Iran, the US has paused military operations yet again in an attempt to negotiate with Iran’s regime. The President told Axios on Monday, “We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don’t work out, we will go back to very strong military action… Either it goes fast or not at all.”

Folks, we have been here many times with Iran’s regime since the ceasefire went into effect back in April, and each time the regime has broken agreements and attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is who they are, and it’s what they do.

You’re never going to get any sort of credible, long-lasting deal with jihadist fanatics who want to usher in the Islamic version of the end times. I believe both Trump and Bibi realize this, and there will no doubt be some serious Iran strategy discussed during Tuesday’s meeting, along with discussion on the way forward in Gaza, Lebanon, and a potential Abraham Accords agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday: “What will it take [to end this war]? It will take for Iran to understand, either for this regime to fall or for Iran to realize that the cost of wreaking economic chaos on the world, murdering thousands of its own citizens, and shooting at everyone—literally at everyone, at Saudi Arabia, at Bahrain, at Qatar, at Kuwait, at the UAE, at Israel, at Jordan, every single one. This is what this regime is doing when they don’t have nuclear weapons. Imagine what they would do if they had nuclear weapons. I think when this regime is either toppled or it’s sufficiently weakened that it knows it has to end its nuclear program and has to change its course. That’s really what President Trump is trying to achieve. And I fully back his efforts to do so. If he can do so without returning to intense military fighting, that’s fine. Why not? But one way or the other, they have to end their nuclear program. And with a deal or without a deal, that has to come to an end.”

And that, as they say, is the bottom line.

Yet there are reports that Iran has moved advanced centrifuges to a highly fortified underground nuclear site called Pickaxe Mountain. There are no signs that the regime is suddenly “seeing the light.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei—who has not been seen in public since February—posted this weekend that “no path remains other than jihad and resistance.”

Iran is also vowing revenge against Ukraine after the Ukrainians reportedly struck an Iranian ship over the weekend in the Caspian Sea that was delivering weapons to, you guessed it, Russia.

Sam Altman Announces That the Singularity Has Arrived

Sam Altman Announces That the Singularity Has Arrived

Frank Landymore

The “singularity” is here — according to Sam Altman, who we’d wager has an ulterior motive behind promoting this claim.

The OpenAI CEO harbingered this sea-changing paradigm shift on a podcast over the weekend.

“We are now, like, in the singularity,” Altman said on the latest episode of “Relentless,” as spotted by Business Insider.

Definitions vary, but the singularity is generally defined as the moment that the capabilities of thinking machines might start to accelerate at a pace beyond humankind’s control, possibly leading to the creation of a powerful superintelligence.

Whether that’s actually happening right now is dubious. But Altman has a lot tied up in hyping the idea, and he’s been doing it for a long time. In a blog post titled “The Gentle Singularity” published almost exactly a year ago, he claimed humankind is “past the event horizon; the takeoff has started,” saying we were close to building the much-vaunted superintelligence.

“Now we’re actually in the moment that we used to talk about at the lunch table in a very not-serious way,” Altman said on the podcast. “I’ve been waiting for this my whole life, and I think it’s going to be incredible, hugely positive, awesome for the world.”

Altman’s comments come days after OpenAI claimed that several of its AI models, including GPT-5.6 Sol and, mysteriously, an “even more capable pre-release model,” broke out of their research environment, gained access to the internet, and hacked their way into a database to find the answers for cybersecurity tests.

Hugging Face, the open source AI platform whose database the AIs raided, confirmed it had  been hit with an intrusion “run by an autonomous agent framework executing many thousands of individual actions.”

Ostensibly, this was an urgent warning shot of how powerful AI systems have become. It was widely hailed as OpenAI’s “Mythos moment,” a reference to how its competitor Anthropic made headlines several months ago, when its Mythos model apparently broke out of containment in similar fashion. 

That comparison isn’t necessarily a compliment: Anthropic was heavily criticized for using the incident as a form of fear-based marketing, and some have speculated that OpenAI is treating the event like a similar publicity stunt.

In any case, the incidents do feed into Altman’s claims that we’re living in a moment when advancements in AI may soon spiral beyond human control. 

If their models are as powerful as their creators say they are, they’re capable of making mincemeat out of our feeble human cybersecurity measures. Anthropic has been beating this drum, too: last month, it called for a global “pause” on AI development, claiming that the tech was on a path to achieving recursive self-improvement, or the ability to constantly improve themselves on their own.

Of course, Altman says what he’s doing isn’t fearmongering. 

Taking a thinly veiled snipe at Anthropic: “I also think some of the alternative visions painted by other companies are quite terrifying,” he said on the podcast, per BI. “I’m going to make sure that gets pushed against and is not what happens.”

TRUMP WARNS IRAN: “Very Powerful Military Action” If Talks Fail

TRUMP WARNS IRAN: “Very Powerful Military Action” If Talks Fail

YWN World Headquarters

President Trump said the United States is engaged in “very deep talks” with Iran, but warned that Washington will return to powerful military action if the diplomatic effort fails.

In an interview with N12, Trump said he decided to suspend U.S. strikes on Friday after countries mediating between Washington and Tehran, along with other Middle Eastern governments, urged him to give negotiations another chance.

“Everyone involved in the contacts with Iran asked me, ‘Don’t shoot,’” Trump said, adding that he believes the Iranians want to reach an agreement.

Asked how much time he was prepared to give the diplomatic process, Trump replied: “Not much time. Either it moves quickly, or it will not happen at all.”

The current negotiations are focused on reaching an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks toward a broader nuclear deal. The contacts are being conducted primarily between Iran and Oman, with Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also actively involved.

Trump said there was “nothing to gain and nothing to lose” by allowing the talks to continue, noting that oil prices had fallen and stock markets had risen since the strikes were paused.

6.8 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Japan - Collapsed Buildings, Fires, Reports Of 'Lots of Deaths'

6.8 magnitude earthquake hits Japan, collapsing buildings and sparking fires

Renee Straker

The damage from an earthquake that hit southwest Japan is becoming clearer. The 6.8 magnitude quake collapsed buildings and sparked fires on Tuesday afternoon. It struck near Kumamoto on the island of Kyushu, and a tsunami advisory was temporarily issued.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said the advisory covered the nearby Ariake and Yatsushiro Seas on the western coasts of Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Fukuoka and Saga prefectures about 900 kilometers (560 miles) southwest of Tokyo. The advisories were lifted within two hours.

The U.S. Geological Survey initially said the earthquake had a magnitude of 7.1, later revising it to 6.8.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in a message posted on X, urged residents to avoid the coastline. She said her government has set up a task force to gather information, assess possible damage and prepare for rescue operations if needed.

Takaichi later told reporters that there have been reports of a number of injuries and damages to roads, bridges and buildings, as well as blackouts and fire. Takaichi warned people cooking to be careful with fire and with shards of broken glass. There were also local reports of people being trapped in collapsed buildings.

Video and photos shared on social media showed people taking cover as buildings shook during the earthquake. There were also several strong aftershocks, with one registering a magnitude of 5.6, according to the USGS.

The Japan Times reported that more than 48,000 homes had lost power.

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Powerful earthquake in southern Japan leaves people trapped in damaged mall, with reports of "a lot of deaths"

CBS

A major earthquake collapsed buildings and sparked fires in Japan's southwest, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Tuesday, with public broadcaster NHK saying at least 50 people were taken to hospitals and local emergency services saying many were left trapped inside a damaged shopping mall. 

A local police source told CBS News' Japanese partner network TBS there were "a lot of deaths" in the damaged mall in the city of Kashima, but that it would "take time to confirm the exact number." 

Video aired by NHK showed several blazes, damaged bridges, a derailed cargo train and cracked roads after the tremor at the far southern end of Japan's main Kyushu island. The broadcaster reported at least 12 collapsed houses.

The quake at 4:27 p.m. (2:27 a.m. Eastern) had a magnitude of 7.1, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, but reached the highest possible level of seven on Japan's Shindo scale of shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey measured the quake — one of hundreds that strike Japan every year — at 6.8. The vast majority cause little damage.

"We are still assessing the extent of injuries and property damage, but I have been informed that there have already been several injuries," Takaichi said. "Power outages and fires are happening in some areas, and roads and bridges have been damaged and buildings collapsed."

In "Kashima town, a shopping complex's second floor collapsed, leaving many people trapped inside," the fire department said in a statement. 

Police said earlier they had received reports of what sounded like an explosion at the Aeon Mall, but they did not publicly confirm the TBS report of multiple fatalities at the damaged retail outlet in Kashima.

About 45,000 households and facilities have no power in the Kumamoto region, according to local utility Kyushu Electric Power.

The firm added that three nuclear reactors operating in the region at the time were functioning normally.

 A local NHK staffer wearing a helmet reported live on air that the shaking was continuing around half an hour after the quake, with the newsroom rocking so violently that it was difficult to remain standing.

"Shaking is continuing as I speak. Including myself, there may be some people who feel their hearts racing," the staffer said.

"When the quake struck, the shaking was so big that I could not stand up. Please be aware of possibility that shaking might continue after this."

Rumors Of War:

Ukraine Intent on WWIII

Martin Armstrong

This attack on a cargo ship in the Caspian Sea from Russia to Iran has the green light from the US. This is dangerously blurring the line between these two conflicts and is bringing us closer to World War III. The next misstep will be to involve China. Neither the Iran-US war nor the Ukraine-Russian War.

The solution to the Ukraine War was no different than that of Yugoslavia. It should have been divided according to the ethnicity of each region. The people in the Donbas who have lived there for hundreds of years are ethnically Russian. The EU and Zelensky are violating international human rights trying to conquer that region which outlawed speaking Russian and their religion. What if Ilhan Abdullahi Omar became governor of Minnesota and outlawed Christianity? Would that be a violation of human rights?

Ukrainians are filled with such hatred of Russians all over their false understanding of history, and their own agenda of ethnic genocide instituted by Bandera all to create a country they never had, all based on the promises of Adolf Hitler. Because of this inherent hatred of Russians, there is no long-term solution. Both Russia and Ukraine understand that this war will ONLY end with the complete destruction of their opponent.

As I warned when Zelensky assumed the presidency of Ukraine, he was hand-picked to start World War III. He was a Neo-Nazis before becoming president pretending to be Christian marrying a Christian girl and his children were baptized. Only after becoming president did he claim to be Jewish to hide the fact that he was indeed a Neo-Nazis. My sources in Kiev maintained that the election was rigged and he was never elected president. They also insist this is why he has suspended all elections as long as Ukraine is at war securing a Neo-Nazi dictatorship preventing peace.

Ukraine wants to enter NATO to draw in all of Europe and the United States to utterly conclude their goal of ethnic cleansing of the Russian people. That became obvious when in 2014, the first act of the Ukrainians was to kill anyone who spoke Russian on the streets of Odessa, which led to the entire separation movement of the Donbas.

Catherine II, the Great of Russia, ordered the founding and construction of the city of Odessa, where in 2014, the Neo-Nazi Ukrainians were openly killing Russians on the streets, chased them into the Trade Unions House, and burned them alive. That began this separatist movement, and it was the interim government installed by Victoria Nuland et al, who attacked the Donbas and started the civil war on the instructions of the Neocons. I have heard that I am on Zelensky’s death list. I believe he killed one of my sources in Ukraine, Gonzalo Lira, who was the first to expose that Zelensky was a coke-head.

On July 25, 2026, Ukraine conducted a strike on ships in the Caspian Sea, and both Ukrainian and Iranian officials have confirmed the attack. However, the two countries give starkly different accounts of the target and the nature of the vessels involved. Zelensky claimed that the strike successfully targeted a Russian warship and vessels used to transport military cargo between Iran and Russia. Ukrainian officials identified the ships as legitimate military targets, as they were allegedly being used to supply weapons to Russian forces, violating international sanctions.

Iran’s officials strongly condemned the attack, describing it as an act of aggression on an “Iranian commercial vessel.” They stated the ship was carrying steel and was sailing from Russia to Iran, with the attack reportedly killing one sailor and injuring several others . Iran has denied Ukraine’s claims that the vessel was carrying military equipment. 

More importantly, Iranian officials claimed the strike was on a commercial ship carrying steel that was sailing FROMRussia’s Astrakhan Port TO Iran’s Anzali Port. They stated that the attack “killed one sailor and injured another” (later reports from Iran updated the injury count to three). Iran condemned the attack as a violation of the UN Charter and an act of aggression, reserving the right to defend its national interests.

The Caspian Sea has become a significant logistics route for Russia and Iran as they deepen their military cooperation, particularly for transporting weapons and military supplies. Russia has also been accused by Ukraine of providing satellite imagery to Iran for use in attacks in the Gulf region. What does that have to do with Ukrainian defense? This event highlights the expanding scope of the conflict and the growing overlap between regional confrontations. Zelensky appears to be carrying out war now against Iran as well.

Ukraine’s strike has prompted speculation since the Caspian Sea is more than 600 miles from the front line in Russia’s war, Ukraine has developed its long-range drones with targeting info most likely from the United States, which is highly unlikely to have taken place without the green light from Washington.

This move is highly dangerous for the US to have Ukraine enter the war with Iran all to pressure Iran seriously introducing the risk of merging these two wars. Neither the US-Iran War nor the Ukraine-Russian War are winnable. Iran has threatened retaliation expanding the war. The Neocons advising Trump are dead wrong. There is even talk of sending boots on the ground to attack Iran’s nuclear facility.

Iran’s war is becoming increasingly intertwined with both the Saudi-Houthi confrontation as well as now the Russia-Ukraine war. This is developing into World War III that our computer has been warning becomes possible in 2027.

With each passing week, we are witnessing the unfolding of a global war that is becoming increasingly complex with a  multidimensional risk profile.

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The Global Threat Of Technocracy, The Trilateral Commission, And Totalitarian Treachery

The Global Threat Of Technocracy, The Trilateral Commission, And Totalitarian Treachery

Charles Burris

Some of the pioneering concepts of the ideas discussed in a previous LRC posted interview were laid out by Spencer MacCallum, and his grandfather, Spencer Heath. Read the brief Wikipedia overviews below:

• Spencer MacCallum
• Zbigniew Brzezinski
• Trilateral Commission

Researcher Patrick Wood (along with Antony Sutton) exposed the adoption of the Technocracy model principles and concept by Zbigniew Brzezinski and David Rockefeller in creating the Trilateral Commission and the idea of the New International Economic Order of the UN, subsequently by the World Economic Forum,

The UN Agenda 2030, adopted in 2015, is a globalist plan for peace and prosperity by 2030, centered on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that tackle poverty, inequality, climate change, and environmental degradation while promoting economic growth, social inclusion, and planetary health, aiming to leave no one behind through universal partnerships. It serves as the world’s roadmap for sustainable development, integrating economic, social, and environmental dimensions for all countries.

For well over a millennium, the common people of all lands have struggled for basic rights of freedom, economic security and wellbeing for their families and hope for a brighter future for their children.

There is no war but the class war.

Today the primal existential enemy is the class of effete, out-of-touch, credentialled members of the elite professional managerial class, of the court intellectuals, opinion leaders and editorial directors of the mainstream regime media, bureaucratic functionaries and staff of the administrative state, the federal judiciary, members of Congress, and those arrogant and belligerent persons who comprise the top echelon of the military industrial complex and the intelligence apparat of the deep state.

Recall the two-part hour-long PBS expose’ Bill Moyers Journal: The World of David Rockefeller, which aired in 1980. Rockefeller was the chairman of Chase Manhattan, the Council on Foreign Relations, and co-founder and chairman of the Trilateral Commission,

For more than a century, ideological extremists, at either end of the political spectrum, have seized upon well-publicized incidents, such as my encounter with Castro, to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal, working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as ‘internationalists,’ and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure – one world, if you will. If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.

— David Rockefeller, Memoirs, 2002, p. 405

“Made Man” Bill Moyers was the consummate insider, twelve years as a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation, former director of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Bilderberg group. In his long suppressed 1980 PBS two-part interview, The World of David Rockefeller, Moyers observed concerning the Machiavellian centenarian:

The unelected if indisputable chairman of the American Establishment …one of the most powerful, influential and richest men in America …[he] sits at the hub of a vast network of financiers, industrialists and politicians whose reach encircles the globe.

David Rockefeller is the most conspicuous representative today of the ruling class, a multinational fraternity of men who shape the global economy and manage the flow of its capital. Rockefeller was born to it, and he has made the most of it. But what some critics see as a vast international conspiracy, he considers a circumstance of life and just another day’s work.

Read full story here…

Japan Is the First Domino in the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Japan Is the First Domino in the Sovereign Debt Crisis

 Martin Armstrong 

Japan recorded a 1.01 trillion yen ($6.2 billion) trade deficit during the first half of 2026, according to preliminary government data. This does not mean that Japan will collapse tomorrow, but it is another crack in the foundation of a debt structure that can no longer withstand rising interest rates, a collapsing currency, and imported inflation.

Japan’s exports increased 13.7% during the first six months of the year to 60.66 trillion yen. Imports rose 10.7% to around 61.9 trillion yen. Yet Japan still imported more than it exported despite a yen so weak that Japanese products should be extremely competitive abroad.

The June figures reveal exports rose 19.3% year-over-year, marking the tenth consecutive monthly increase. Imports, however, surged 25.4% to a record 11.3 trillion yen. That left Japan with a 406.9 billion yen deficit for June, more than three times the 120 billion yen shortfall economists had expected. Japan had recorded a 122 billion yen surplus during June 2025.

Japan depends heavily on imported energy. The conflict with Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised the cost of oil while forcing Japan to seek supplies from more distant sources. Japan’s oil import volume actually declined 13.7% in June, but the value of those imports increased 59.3%. Japan bought less oil and paid far more for it.

That is the consequence of a weak currency colliding with an external energy shock. The yen has fallen beyond 163 to the dollar, its weakest level since 1986. It stood near 140 a year earlier. Every barrel of oil, shipment of natural gas, imported food product, and foreign industrial component becomes more expensive when priced in yen.

Japan accumulated the largest sovereign debt burden in the industrialized world while interest rates were held artificially near zero. Government debt exceeds 200% of GDP by virtually every major international estimate, while broader measurements place the burden above 230%. Politicians convinced themselves that the debt did not matter because Japanese institutions held most of it and the Bank of Japan could always purchase whatever the private market rejected.

The Bank of Japan held approximately 485.4 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds as of March 2026, representing 47.9% of outstanding JGBs under the government’s calculation. This is not a free market. The central bank became the market because the government could not have financed this mountain of debt at normal interest rates. That arrangement worked only while inflation remained subdued and the yen retained public confidence. Both conditions are now breaking down.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% in June, the highest level in 31 years. Under ordinary circumstances, raising rates would help support the currency and contain inflation. Japan is not operating under ordinary circumstances. Every increase in rates gradually raises the government’s cost of refinancing debt that was accumulated under zero-rate policies.

Japan’s fiscal 2026 budget totals a record 122.3 trillion yen. Debt-service expenditures, including interest and redemptions, have jumped 10.8% to 31.3 trillion yen. That means more than one-quarter of general government spending is already being consumed by past borrowing.

The Finance Ministry estimates that debt-service costs could reach 40.3 trillion yen by fiscal 2029, representing roughly 30% of total government expenditures. Annual bond issuance is projected to rise 28% from its 2026 level to around 38 trillion yen by that time. The government will be issuing additional debt primarily because servicing the existing debt is becoming more expensive.

That is the sovereign debt spiral. New bonds must be issued to pay the interest and redeem the old bonds. As rates rise, the government requires still more borrowing. As borrowing increases, investors demand higher yields to compensate for fiscal and currency risk. The process feeds upon itself.

The Bank of Japan is trapped. If it raises rates aggressively to defend the yen, it increases government debt-service costs and inflicts losses on banks, insurers, pension funds, and other institutions holding government bonds. If it keeps rates too low, capital continues to move away from the yen, the currency declines, and imported inflation accelerates. If it resumes massive bond purchases, it confirms that the debt cannot be financed naturally and further undermines confidence in the currency.

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