How the dark ICC war crimes day came, and what it means - analysis

How the dark ICC war crimes day came, and what it means - analysis

YONAH JEREMY BOB

From 2009 until 2021, Israel successfully prevented the International Criminal Court (ICC) from opening a full war crimes probe against it, holding it at bay with a preliminary review of jurisdictional issues.

From June 2021 until October 2023, Israel held ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan at bay, who barely talked about Israel and the Palestinians for the first two-and-a-half years of his term, and, absent the current war, many believe Khan would have given Jerusalem a pass on the 2014 Gaza conflict, perhaps even on the settlement enterprise.

In less than a month, everything changed.

From the end of October, and increasingly so through November and December, Khan issued statements warning Israel about war crimes. He tried to visit Gaza through the Rafah crossing and ended up holding a press conference on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing.

He followed this with a visit to Israel and the West Bank in an unofficial capacity to meet Israeli victims of October 7 and the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah – still without direct access to Gaza.

Khan issued warnings to Israel, warnings that implied that he would advance with arrest warrants against Israeli officials should Jerusalem push forward with Rafah. Last month, Israel received messages in April that the arrest warrants might be on their way.

The impact of the Khan's decision on Israel

Something happened to tip Khan over the edge. Either it was Rafah or the multiple hard blows the US served Israel in recent weeks, including explicit statements that portions of the IDF violated international law in recent years. Whatever it was, it has left Israel in a disaster of mammoth proportions.

This will impact how the IDF fights at a macro level, how individual soldiers fight, and could eventually impact recruitment for combat units; it will negatively impact Israel diplomatically, and economically, and will be a stain on Israel’s name in the democratic and civilized world of public opinion.

Even if the warrants later get dropped, this damage will not be fully undone.

That said, for close observers, the truth is it actually could have been a lot worse, and the truth is all in the details.

The requested arrest warrants are out for three senior Hamas officials – perhaps critics of Israel who have defended Hamas as resistance fighters will think again.

Additionally, the ICC did not issue arrest warrants against war ministers Benny Gantz or Gadi Eisenkot – this is no accident.

It would be terrible for any Israeli official to be tagged with the label of alleged war crimes; it is even worse if that person is the prime minister.

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