Tehran has threatened the US in Syria, and its drone raid is a sign to Damascus and Russia that Iran is increasingly running Syrian policy.
The Iranian regime was heavily involved in two symbolic attacks in the first two weeks of February.
The Iranian regime was heavily involved in two symbolic attacks in the first two weeks of February.
First, pro-regime forces attacked US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria on February 7. Just over two days later, Iranian forces in Syria launched a drone at Israel, carefully threading its way over the border with Jordan before entering Israel.
These two actions reveal how Iran is controlling the escalating tempo in Syria.
It wants to test US and Israel responses. It also wants to control the playing field. Although Israel and the US responded to the threats with massive force, it’s unclear if Tehran got the message.
“Either the US will leave the eastern Euphrates in Syria or we will force them to leave,” Ali Akbar Velayati, the senior foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said on January 31 in Mashhad, Iran. The full details of Iran’s involvement in the February 7 attack on the SDF near the village of Khusham in the Euphrates valley is unclear. However, given Velayati’s boasts, it appears to have been planned in coordination with pro-Iranian militias, with a nod from Tehran.
So what is Iran’s overall game in Syria in light of these two provocative and unprecedented acts? The decision to attack US forces and send a drone into Israel marks a major escalation. Iran is attempting to test its enemies on both sides of Syria. In both cases it knows that US and Israeli retaliation will likely strike Syrian targets. For Iran then, the Syrian regime pays the price for its behavior.
By using Syrian territory and setting down roots, Iran’s actions could threaten the Assad regime. In this game, Iran is the winner, even if it loses some soldiers or militia members. It gets to engage its enemies from abroad, while at home it boasts of being the most powerful country in the region.
It can also boast now of having struck at the all-powerful Americans and causing an Israeli F-16 to be downed for the first time since 1982. In the Iranian revolutionary context, that is poking at the “big and little Satan.” And it is using Syrian territory to do so, and to some extent, using the cover of Russian support of the regime to continue its destabilizing policies. Iran’s regime often points out that it was “invited” to Syria to support the regime, unlike the US or Israel, which it portrays as invading sovereign territory.
The question that leaves is: to what degree is the Syrian regime happy with Iran’s actions that cost it soldiers and pose a risk? For decades, the Assad regime kept a cold peace with Israel on the Golan. Now, Iran’s tentacles may risk all that.
A senior Israeli minister told a Saudi-linked news outlet that Israel would “teach Iran a lesson it will never forget,” if the country launches an attack, and that Syrians could end up paying the price as well.
The strongly worded threat from intelligence minister Israel Katz, published late Sunday, came a day after cross-border violence flared in northern Israel and southern Syria following weeks of warnings from Jerusalem that it would not tolerate what it said were Iranian plans to establish a foothold on Israel’s northern border for eventual use in attacks against the Jewish state.
“If Iran continues to threaten and carry out offensive operations against Israel from Syria, Israel will teach Iran a lesson that it will never forget,” Katz told the London-based Arabic-language outlet Elaph.
The site, run by Saudi publisher Othman Al Omeir, has become a go-to news outlet for Israeli officials seeking to speak to the Arab world, and has run interviews with several high-ranking figures, including IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Many analysts regarded Saturday’s violence as the first open confrontation between Israel and Iran after decades of battling through proxy groups and secret operations under the radar.
After shooting down an Iranian drone that infiltrated its airspace, Israel launched a widespread retaliatory offensive on Saturday in Syria. The IDF said it hit four Iranian positions and eight Syrian sites, causing significant damage.
Israel also said it destroyed the Syrian military’s main command and control bunker in its most devastating assault there in decades. A number of anti-aircraft batteries were also targeted after an Israeli F-16 crashed, apparently after being shot down.
The Syrians fired an unprecedented number of anti-aircraft missiles at the Israeli aircraft. One of the Israeli planes, an F-16i flying over Northern Israel, was struck by a missile. It tried to reach the Israeli air base in the Galilee, but the crew realized they would not make it and ejected.
The plane crashed into an empty field. The pilot was seriously injured, seemingly from the missile attack on the plane, and the navigator was only slightly injured. It was the first Israeli fighter aircraft that has been shot down since 1982.
Israel responded with a much larger strike in Syria, attacking 12 targets including 4 Iranian targets, and at least four Syrian missile emplacements destroying all of the sites that fired on the Israeli planes. According to Israeli sources, it was the largest and most successful attack on the missile system in Syria since the Lebanon War of 1982.
Israelis are now asking themselves whether we have been living in a period of false peace? Have things fundamentally changed? The answer seems to be yes.
The major change is the fact that the Iranians directly sent a drone into Israel. It is not clear if the drone was on an attack mission, or merely an intelligence mission — but the nature of the mission is not really relevant. The Iranians have taken a strategic decision to confront Israel directly, and that constitutes a change.
Israel has made it clear that it will not allow the Iranians to establish advanced bases in Syria and the Iranians are determined to establish those bases. Additional confrontations can be expected.
The downing of an Israeli F-16i came as a surprise. While the Israeli Air Force never believed that its planes were untouchable, the fact that the plane was hit, while over Israel, clearly came as a surprise. Clearly some of the built-in advance defensive systems of the F-16 failed to work.
In reality, one should not be shocked, as no systems work 100 percent of the time. Still, the Syrians are celebrating the downing of the first Israeli planes in decades.
It should be noted that according to Israeli sources, the Iranian drone was one with an advanced semi-stealth design, based on the technology of the American RQ-170 drone, captured by the Iranians in 2011. The fact that this drone has been recovered mostly intact, should provide important intelligence about the Iranian abilities.
An additional lesson learned today was the complete absence of the United States. Not since the 1950s has America been such an irrelevant actor in events in this part of the Middle East.
The scorecard for those actively involved in the events over the skies of Israel and Syria on Saturday looks something like this: Israel lost an F-16 fighter jet and an aura of complete invincibility over Syria skies.
Iran lost a drone, the drone’s command and control center, and some of its military assets in Syria, the details of which are sure to emerge in the coming days.
Iran lost a drone, the drone’s command and control center, and some of its military assets in Syria, the details of which are sure to emerge in the coming days.
When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu goes to Russia periodically to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is clear that he is not going only to express opposition to Iran’s entrenchment in Syria. The Russians are all too familiar with Israel’s position on this matter. Rather, he is also telling the Russian president what to expect if the Iranian entrenchment continues, letting him know how Israel will react.
And he does this for two reasons. The first is not to surprise the Russians. One reason the de-confliction mechanism set up when the Russians first became militarily engaged in Syria has worked, is that neither Israel nor Russia surprises the other. Russia knows where Israel’s forces are and Israel knows where the Russians are.
And he does this for two reasons. The first is not to surprise the Russians. One reason the de-confliction mechanism set up when the Russians first became militarily engaged in Syria has worked, is that neither Israel nor Russia surprises the other. Russia knows where Israel’s forces are and Israel knows where the Russians are.
The other reason Israel wants the Russians to know exactly what it will do if the Iranians move to set up permanent military camp in Syria, is the hope that this knowledge will nudge Moscow into convincing the Iranians to stand back.
The decision by the Iran-led “Shiite Axis” in the region to send an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) into Israeli territory was a dangerous miscalculation by Tehran and its puppets in Syria and Lebanon.
Following strategic victories over the Islamic State and Turkey-backed rebels inside Syria, an overly confident Iran apparently decided to test regional boundaries and its own capabilities by sending the UAV over the border into the Jewish state.
Iran’s drone fleet is an important part of its war arsenal against Israel. Hezbollah has previously threatened to send explosives-laden drones to target Israel’s nuclear plant and civilian infrastructure. Only last week, Iran announced the opening of a drone manufacturing facility meant to mass produce UAVs that can carry smart munitions to attack various targets.
It also must be recalled that Iran’s dispatching of the drone yesterday followed weeks of escalating rhetoric in which Hezbollah repeatedly threatened to attack Israeli offshore gas platforms, IDF troops operating along the northern border and dispatch fighters to storm the Israeli border.
In reacting as it did, Israel sent Iran, Syria and Hezbollah a clear message that they will suffer enormously following any future provocation. The Shiite Axis would do well to check its inflated hubris and think twice before messing with Israel again.
Israel issued stark warnings on Sunday over Iran’s presence in neighbouring Syria after a confrontation threatened to open a new and unpredictable period in the country’s seven-year civil war.
“We inflicted on Saturday a heavy blow to Iranian and Syrian forces,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of Sunday’s cabinet meeting.
“We made clear to everyone that our rules of engagement will not change in any way. We will continue to harm anyone who tries to harm us. This was our policy and this will remain our policy.”
Other Israeli ministers spoke of refusing to accept Iran entrenching itself militarily in Syria, as Netanyahu has said repeatedly. Tehran denies it is doing so.
Syria has become more emboldened to try to stop Israeli strikes inside the country, while Israel wants to maintain its ability to operate there when it sees fit, said Ofer Zalzberg of the International Crisis Group think tank.
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