In the aftermath of Robert Mueller's indictment against 13 Russian "operatives" for meddling with the US presidential election, President Trump has been under fire for lashing out at everyone... except Russia. So, in response, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is weighing citing the deaths of more than 200 Russian fighters - or rather mercenaries - in Syria, who were killed following US strikes on February 7, as an example of Trump's tough stance toward Russia.
Recall that last week, "more than 200 mercenaries, mostly Russians fighting on behalf of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, died in a failed attack on a base and refinery held by U.S. and U.S.-backed forces in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region" In terms of total body count, the U.S. official put the death toll at about 100, with 200 to 300 injured; while Russia admitted that Russians were killed, it said the number was five and denied that the men killed were officially sanctioned Russian troops.
It is this attack that Trump hopes to use as proof of his administration's determination to show a "hard line" stance toward Putin.
On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders made an oblique reference to “an incident” as she argued that President Donald Trump has been tougher on Russia than his predecessor Barack Obama. And, according to Bloomberg, she was alluding to the Syria battle - an episode which as we suggested last week threatened to further deteriorate relations with Moscow, as it would put the onus on Putin to respond to what Trump will deem an official Russian provocation.
“He has done a number of things to put pressure on Russia and to be tough on Russia. Just last week, there was an incident that will be reported in the coming days, and another way that this president was tough on Russia,” Sanders said in a briefing for reporters.
The Bloomberg source adds that "Trump himself would like to publicly make the case that the battle shows his resolve to confront Moscow."
The official recognition of Russian deaths would be direct escalation in the diplomatic crossfire: the U.S. has not previously publicly acknowledged that Russians were among the fighters killed in the Feb. 7 battle.
It goes without saying that Sanders’ characterization of the event as evidence that the president has been “tougher on Russian in the first year than Obama was in eight years combined” would further antagonize the Kremlin.
As reported previously, in the February 7 Syria battle, Russian mercenaries and allied units fighting on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad attacked a base held by U.S.-backed forces, mainly Kurds, in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region. According to the Pentagon, after 20 to 30 artillery and tank rounds landed near the Kurds and U.S. soldiers acting as advisers, the U.S. coalition responded with artillery and airstrikes. The result was over 200 Russian mercenaries killed.
U.S. forces used a deconfliction line with the Russian military to inquire whether the attacking force was theirs. White said that U.S. officials “were in regular communication with Russian counterparts before, during and after the attack.”
What is most notable, however, is that both the Kremlin and the Pentagon have downplayed the incident. Russia’s military said it had nothing to do with the attack and the U.S. accepted the claim. While denying that official Russian troops were present, the Russian Foreign Ministry has acknowledged five Russian deaths in the incident.
Regardless, it was the deadliest clash between citizens of the two countries since the Cold War.
Further complicating matters, the Russian assault on the base in Syria may have been a rogue operation, conducted by the Wagner Group, the Russian equivalent of the US Xi, or Blackwater, a firm owned by a Kremlin-connected businessman named Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The risk is that by elevating the status of Russian mercenaries to state-backed fighters - which would be the only reason why the US action would be indicative of a tough stance toward the Kremlin - Russia will interpret what until now was deemed largely an accident, albeit the deadliest encounter between the two countries in decades, as an overt act meant to punish Russia by killing its troops - whether legitimate soldiers or mercs - and Putin would have no choice but to respond in kind.
The potential escalation takes place two days after Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, warned the Trump administration on Feb. 19 not to “play with fire” in Syria by supporting the autonomy-seeking Kurds, who have helped the U.S. largely eradicate the Islamic State militant group’s presence in the country.
With US relations with Russia once again deteriorating by the day, the Navy has deployed the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney to the Black Sea, where it will join the destroyer USS Ross, in a move that military officials told CNN is intended to "desensitize Russia" to the presence of US military forces in the Black Sea, Russia's geographic equivalent of the Gulf of Mexico.
Officials told CNN that given the heightened tensions and increased military activity in the region "it is important to increase the frequency of US activity in the area and desensitize Russia to the presence of US military forces there", helping to establish rules for how the two countries should safely operate in proximity to each other, as they did in the Cold War.
"In the Cold War we had a dance we did and everybody knew their roles in the dance: You fly your bomber here, I'll fly my bomber there. You put a ship here, I'll put a ship there," another US defense official in Europe told CNN.
"I don't think we've got to that level yet, and so we're still trying to figure out what that dance looks like in the year 2018 versus what it was back in the Cold War, and I think there are some growing pains, obviously," the official added.
The naval deployment comes as NATO ground forces pile up in central and eastern Europe, allegedly in response for Russia's continued militarization of Crimea. Nevertheless, U.S. and NATO officials have insisted that they are not playing tit-for-tat with the Russians.
On Sunday Russia announced its own naval deployments to the area, with the Russian Ministry of Defense issuing a statement saying that a Russian frigate, the Admiral Essen, and two patrol ships had entered the Black Sea for a series of exercises.
A US defense official based in Europe told CNN that the Russians "are very sensitive to our precision strike capability" as well as US ballistic missile defense assets such as the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, which is deployed on both the Ross and Carney.
Unverified photos and video footage has emerged on Twitter, showing two new Russian Su-57 stealth fighters, also known as the PAK FA and T-50, landing at Khemimim air base, near Latakia, in northwestern Syria.
The two stealth combat aircraft were reportedly part of a larger package of assets deployed to the Russian airbase in Syria.
Subsequent footage analysis confirm that the videos were indeed taken in Syria as the jets made a landing at Russia's master air base located south of Latakia:
In one of the video clips, which first emerged online on Feb. 21, 2018, an Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jet, which the Russians have already deployed to Syria, is also seen flying nearby. As The Drive reports, additional unconfirmed reports said that the Su-57s were part a larger group of Russian aircraft arriving in the country, including four additional Su-35s, four Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft, and an A-50U Mainstay airborne early warning aircraft, all types the Russians have previously deployed to the country.
Still, this would be a major deployment for Russia, coming after Putin claimed total victory over terrorists in the country during a December 2017 visit where he also announced his country would begin drawing down its military presence in Syria.
The deployment also comes after a steadily increasing number of aggressive interactions between Russia's tactical aircraft and U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters over eastern Syria. If the Kremlin has sent the Su-57s to Syria it could further complicate those situations since American pilots have no actual experience, beyond intelligence assessments and possibly simulations, with how the Russian aircraft appears on their sensors and at what ranges, what the jet's actual combat capabilities are, and what threat they might pose. At the same time, of course, it could give the United States an excellent opportunity to gather new information about the fighters, especially depending on what sensors they activate or if they fly in a full low-observable configuration during missions.
1 comment:
OH, this is going to turn out well...for sure!!!
Nothing to be concerned with here.
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