Escalation On Israel's Northern Front: Israel Must Prepare For War, Security Cabinet Mulls Action Against Iran

Escalation on the northern front: Israel must prepare for war

Unless a big change occurs in the near future, it is almost inevitable that a military campaign will take place on Israel's northern border.

The situation in Israel's northern arena is continuously escalating. The incident that took place on Saturday is another step in this process. In my opinion, the way Israel handled the incident proves that the IDF is unquestionably capable of responding quickly, based on accurate intelligence. The downing of the Israeli jet needs to be thoroughly investigated and I'm sure this will be carried out. Nonetheless, the Israeli public needs to understand that sometimes when there is fighting, casualties occur.

This escalating situation came to be following an Iranian strategy to take advantage of the campaign in Syria. Iran infiltrated Syria further and brought in Shi'ite militias – thousands of terrorists whom they wish to turn into a fighting force against the State of Israel. In addition, they plan to install Iranian air and navy military forces alongside Hezbollah troops. In short, their plan is to surround the State of Israel with proxy forces that will carry out terrorist activities against Israel, all the way to Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Israel has made it absolutely clear that it will not allow Iran and its cohorts to control land that touches Israel's border, and rightly so. The major powers that can stop this process are the Russians and the Americans, However, the diplomatic efforts that have been made so far with the Russians and Americans have not borne any fruit. I personally have met with Russian officials three times over the last 18 months as a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. At the most recent meeting, we made it clear to them exactly where our red lines lie, and warned them that if the process of Iranization doesn’t stop, the result will be an escalation of violence that will lead to an all-out war on Israel's northern front. This would not be in the best interests of Israel, Russia or the US.

In the meantime, the Russians are nodding their heads in agreement, saying they understand the problem, and that they also don't want any Iranian forces in Syria. But they also don't plan on using any significant amount of force to put a stop to this process. The Americans, to our great disappointment, are doing nothing about this issue except for offering lip service.

Unless a big change occurs in the near future, it is almost inevitable that a military campaign will take place on Israel's northern border. The Israeli government must continue making tenacious diplomatic efforts to convince the Russians and Americans to intervene and prevent a war from breaking out.

At the same time, the State of Israel must prepare for battle. The IDF is doing a great job with preparations, but the civilian populations – especially Israelis living in the north – are nowhere near ready. The government called for all homes in northern Israel to be equipped with security rooms a mere three weeks ago.

Security Cabinet mulls action against Iran

The 12-member security cabinet met Sunday to discuss the volatile situation in the North, with some of the ministers already having advocated taking military action – not only against Iranian proxies for attacks on Israel, but against Iran itself.

The ministers heard briefings from the security establishment, but no operative decisions were announced even as Israeli officials made clear throughout the day that Jerusalem was interested in de-escalating the situation.

Nevertheless, Education Minister Naftali Bennett, who is a member of the security cabinet, gave a speech at the annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv last week in which he referred to Iran as an “octopus” and said it was time for Israel to stop dealing with the tentacles of the octopus – Hamas and Hezbollah – but instead with the octopus itself.

“Look at this absurdity,” he said. “While the Iranian ayatollahs send [Quds Force commander] Qassem Suleimani to build militia after militia; while they feed their messengers [proxies] with billions of dollars, train them and hurt our children and citizens; while they do this, they sit at home, safe and secure.

Let me say this: Rouhani will fight Israel until the last drop of Lebanese and Gazan blood.”

Bennett said Israel’s strategy must be to “mark, first and foremost” the Quds Forces and Iran as “a target for continuous, multi-front attacks.

The Quds Forces is the extraterritorial division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Bennett said already a week ago, before Iran sent a drone to penetrate Israel’s airspace, that we must make clear to Iran that its “era of immunity” is over. “A rocket from Lebanon will be treated like an Iranian rocket. We will not waste our resources and energy fighting in Lebanese towns while you [Iran’s leaders] recline in your chair and watch.”

Israel delivered a harsh blow to Iranian and Syrian forces on Saturday and has shown that, from its point of view, the rules of the game have not changed, he said. These rules are that “we will continue to harm anyone who attempts to harm us,” he said, adding that this was Israel’s policy in the past and remains its policy now.

Netanyahu also praised the country for the unity it showed Saturday following the incursion of the Iranian drone and the developments that followed.

“Yesterday we proved again that in the moments where we are tested, we know how to unite, repel our enemies and protect our country,” he said.

Sima Shine, a senior research fellow at INSS focusing on Iran, noted that the Iranian press was not playing up Saturday’s events, and that the coverage of it presented the events as a confrontation between Israel and Syria, not between Israel and Iran.

Shine, who served as the deputy director-general in the Strategic Affairs Ministry from 2009 to 2015 responsible for the Iranian file, said in a conference call organized by Media Central that from a political perspective, Saturday’s events took place at the worst possible time for the Iranian government.

First of all, she said, Tehran is still dealing with demonstrations almost every night somewhere around the country, where the rallying cry is: “Invest in Iran, not in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.” What happened Saturday, she said, merely shines the spotlight on the fact that the government continues to squander its treasure on military adventurism abroad, rather than supplying the needs of its citizenry at home.

“The street is not quiet in Iran,” Shine said.

Also in terms of Iran’s relations with the world, the events took place at a bad time, because it shows clearly that Iran is operating in a third country, “in a way that is destabilizing the region and could escalate into a war.”

With the Trump administration now engaged with the Europeans in talks about “fixing” the Iranian nuclear deal and dealing with Iran’s ballistic-missile program, Shine said, and with the Iranians trying to fend this off by improving relations with the Europeans and encouraging European investment, Saturday’s developments and the focus it places on Iran’s aggressive behavior in the region came at a particularly inopportune moment.

One conclusion she drew from this is that “there is no dialogue between the operational and political channels inside Iran.” She said it was likely that a senior officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps thought this was an opportune time to send a drone into Israel, without first clearing it with the government or considering all the political ramifications.