If Iran uses its Iraqi Shia Militias, Afghans, and Pakistanis, as well as its own forces in attacks on Israel, there is likely to be war between Israel and Iran by 2019. See How Iran Fuels Syria War, Iraqis: twenty thousand Shia from ten groups;
Non-Iranian Militia Mercenaries: Afghan, fifteen thousand to twenty thousand; Pakistan, five thousand to ten thousand; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), eight thousand to ten thousand; Iranian Regular Army, five thousand to six thousand, all estimates as of 2016.
If Tehran uses its militias, and other forces drafted to do Iran’s deeds, as well as its IRGC to launch attacks on Israel, there may be war between Israel and Iran by 2019.
Regarding 2018, direct conflict between Israel and Iran is not only on the horizon, but happening now: interception of an Iranian drone over Israel, downing of an Israeli F-16, and retaliatory strikes against Syrian and Iranian targets. These converging events are opening scenes of a wider war—if Tehran continues trying to fortify its presence in Syria after the defeat of Islamic State.
Growing tensions between Israel and Iran, show few signs of warmth and may heat up further between 2018 and 2019. But will the countries go to war? And what would this mean for regional peace and security?
The Israeli army’s February 10 announcement that it launched a “large-scale attack” inside Syria on Saturday to target aerial-defense batteries and sites it saidwere linked to Iran, after one of its aircraft crashed under Syria antiaircraft fire, is a further reminder of the Islamic Republic’s malign regional activities.
There are reports from Israeli and Arab sources about resumption of Israel’s war with Syria. The added wrinkle is in the post-nuclear deal era with the major powers, a resurgent Iran is a new player in the Israeli-Syrian lurch toward war.Indeed, a “Shadow War,” between Israel and Iran has been going on for years, bringing us closer to today's events and what is to come in 2019.
Think about the interception of an Iranian drone over Israel, downing of an Israeli F-16, and retaliatory strikes against Syrian and Iranian targets. These converging events are opening scenes of a wider war that is starting, if Tehran continues trying to fortify its presence in Syria, after “defeating” the Islamic State.
First, Iran launched an attack drone into Israel, which Israelis tracked and shot down.
Second, the Israelis sent jets into Syria to hit the Iranian command center that had sent the drone, at the Tiyas Airbase in Syria.
Third, forces backing Bashar al-Assad fired “dozens” of antiaircraft missiles, including into Israeli territory, which forced Israeli communities to go into lockdown and the pilots of one F-16 to abandon the jet.
Fourth, the Israelis sent eight jets into Syria to target a dozen Syrian and Iranian military facilities Syria to target a dozen Syrian and Iranian military facilities.
Fifth, Assad’s forces fired off another fifteen to twenty anti-aircraft missiles, again forcing Israeli communities to go into lockdown.
Finally, accepting an expansion of Tehran’s military presence in Syria will sooner or later bring about a much wider conflict among Israelis, Iranians, and the so-called Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Shia militias. It is an umbrella organization under which other militias fall. Indeed, retired Ambassador Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute, holds that, “several of [their] . . . leaders have provocatively visited the Israeli border recently.”
Moreover, there is the fight along the Israel-Syrian border, with direct participation of Iranian units, not just the PMF.
First, the State Department: As Damascus and Tehran threaten Jerusalem, State indicates to Israel it stands alone. Why? Secretary Tillerson’s Middle East tour included Amman, Ankara, Cairo, Kuwait City and Beirut, but not Jerusalem. After Tehran’s incursion via drones, Tillerson should go to Jerusalem.
Second, the Pentagon asserted that it “did not participate in this military operation...Israel is our closest security partner in the region and we fully support Israel’s inherent right to defend itself against threats to its territory and its people.”
Not only is Israel at risk from Iran. It’s ballistic-missile programs give it the potential to hold targets at risk across the region, and Tehran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Tehran’s desire to deter the United States might drive it to field an ICBM, which like that of Pyongyang’s might target the U.S. homeland per the February 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
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