I had not considered the implication of the Kursk operation as crossing a “red line” until I heard Scott Ritter discussing the matter with Nima. The role of the United States and other NATO allies in planning and supplying Ukraine with intelligence, weapons and some troops (in the form of “mercenaries”), is a casus belli. Pure and simple.
Since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022, the NATO countries have been continuously poking the bear and acting more provocatively towards Russia as the defeat of Ukraine looms on the horizon.
Besides providing Ukraine with a stream of ISR (i.e., Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) data used to conduct attacks on Russian troops and civilians, NATO has sent HIMARS, 155 artillery, drones, tanks, armored personnel carriers and F-16 combat aircraft. Russia has tolerated these proxy attacks, content to destroy the weapons systems without resorting to launching counter attacks on the NATO providers.
Russian patience may have reached its limit. The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, complete with troops on the ground, including foreign “mercenaries”, marks a dangerous escalation by the United States and NATO. I liken it to the attempt in Godfather II to murder Michael Corleone in his Lake Tahoe compound. It is one thing to take a shot at the Godfather on a public street. It is a whole different matter to bring it to his home and family.
While it is true that Ukraine has been killing Russian civilians for more than two years with Western supplied HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles, the latest operation in Kursk represents something more dangerous and, from the Russian perspective, unforgivable. The failure of the West to comprehend the Russian paranoia about Western invaders, is likely to spur Russia to change the tactics and tempo of the war.
Many military and civilian leaders in the West labor under the illusion that Russia’s failure since the start of the SMO to crush Ukraine in a short period of time is because the Russian military is weak and led by incompetents.
The West is confusing patience and prudence on the part of Russia with ineptitude. While it may strike you as strange, the Russians have limited their military responses to avoid inflicting unnecessary civilian casualties and damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, up till now.
As a military operation, the Kursk offensive by Ukraine is a disaster. Beyond bleeding Ukraine of men and equipment it cannot afford to lose, the attack has hardened Russian resolve to end this war through force rather than negotiations. I believe there is zero chance of any kind of negotiated end to the war other than an unconditional surrender by Kiev and, by extension, NATO. The Russian Bear is fully awake and royally pissed off. I learned as a youngster, never tangle with an angry bear.
No comments:
Post a Comment