Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Sunday told Lebanese people they could “take a breath,” saying that after a salvo of rockets on Sunday, the Iran-backed militant group was done with retaliation against Israel for the July killing of a senior leader in Beirut.
Now, all eyes are on Iran, which had said it too would inflict a “painful response” on Israel after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Palestinian militant group Hamas, in Tehran hours after the Hezbollah commander’s death.
Hezbollah’s strike, which followed what Israel called a pre-emptive attack on Sunday, prompted congratulatory statements from Hamas and Iran-backed Iraqi militants while Houthi rebels in Yemen called for more attacks. Israel said no major damage occurred. Casualties and damage in Lebanon were also limited, Hezbollah said.
The messages from Iran have been less clear.
On Sunday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, didn’t address the operation directly but said “war has many forms,” adding: “It doesn’t always mean holding a gun. It means thinking correctly, speaking correctly, identifying correctly, aiming accurately.”
The speaker of Iran’s parliament said Israel suffered a defeat at the hands of Hezbollah that was similar to the 2006 war between Lebanon and Israel. “They cannot cover up this defeat,” he said. Its foreign minister said that there would be a “precise and calculated” response to Israel but that “unlike the Zionist regime, Iran isn’t seeking to escalate tensions, although it doesn’t fear them.”
One question is whether Iran will use Sunday’s strike by Hezbollah—which has proclaimed it a success—as cover to avoid further escalation as Tehran looks for a response that would deter Israel from further attacks while also avoiding triggering a regional war.
The degree to which Hezbollah’s attack will influence Iran’s own plans will depend on how much Tehran sees itself a part of Hezbollah’s operation. “It is unclear at the moment if Iran considers this part of their own retaliation,” an Israeli security official said.
Some Iranian allies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, have pushed for a harder line.
The Houthis’ defense minister, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Al-Atifi, said Sunday that he wanted to “reassure everyone that the response of the Axis of Jihad and Resistance to the crimes of the Zionist enemy is coming and inevitable.”
While both Israel and Hezbollah have signaled that they want to de-escalate and no attack appeared to be imminent, Pentagon officials believe that the threat to Israel from Iran still exists, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Monday.
“We continue to assess that there is a threat of attack, and we again remain well postured to be able to support Israel’s defense as well as protect our forces should they be attacked,” Ryder said.
Officials in Washington say they had no plans to change the bolstered U.S. military presence in the region.
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