Ron Ben Yishai
Early intelligence indications from the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) about Hezbollah's extensive preparations for a strike on Israel, including the center of the country, prevented potentially severe damage and a possibility of significant casualties during the terror group’s attack on Sunday.
The warning, sounded after information from Israeli intelligence agencies, enabled the IDF to carry out a preemptive strike on thousands of rocket launchers of various types in Lebanon which were intended to target strategic military sites in central Israel, including the Gush Dan region. Following this, the IDF intercepted drones that were en route from Lebanon to southern Israel, intended to strike targets in central Israel.
There’s yet been no confirmation of reports saying Hezbollah intended to target the runways at Ben Gurion Airport, but foreign reports suggest this was one of the terror group’s targets, along with a few other IDF bases in the central region.
In any case, the IDF's preemptive strike disrupted Hezbollah's plans to launch a combined rocket and drone attack on the holy Shia day of Arbaeen, which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein in the Battle of Karbala.
This event in the Shia world is comparable to that of Tisha B'Av in Judaism, and Hezbollah likely aimed to carry out its attack on this day to achieve surprise, assuming Israel wouldn’t expect an attack on a holy Shia day that would disrupt the holiday for most of Lebanon's Shia population.
Hezbollah needed to reposition its missile and rocket launchers in a way that advanced them to southern Lebanon to shorten Israel's warning time during such an attack and in order to strike targets in the central part of the country with heavier rockets than those typically stationed in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah was preparing for a combined attack of rockets and strike drones, and the IDF's preemptive strike not only destroyed these assets but also disrupted the attack’s timeline. A coordinated attack of rockets and drones requires precise synchronization between the slower-moving drones and the faster ballistic rockets.
Hezbollah's targets
Overall, it appears that Hezbollah intended to operate primarily in the north to avoid sparking a regional war that might have erupted if it had launched a widespread attack in the central region. However, the terror organization attempted to maintain the equation set by its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, saying that an attack on Beirut – where Israel recently eliminated Fuad Shukr, effectively Hezbollah's chief of staff – would lead to a response in Tel Aviv.
Yet, according to reports, the number of targets chosen in the central region was limited, and included only military targets, reflecting Hezbollah's clear intention, likely influenced by Iranian demands, to avoid a full-scale war.
Another interesting fact is that Hezbollah opened fire from southern Lebanon alone, including the area between the Litani River and the Awali River, with the clear intention, likely again following Iranian demands, that Israel in its response would avoid striking the Beirut and Baalbek regions, where Hezbollah's heavy missiles such as the Fateh-110 and Zelzal are located.
The Iranians appear to want Hezbollah to avoid risking these heavy and precise missile systems, which would be necessary if Israel were to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
It seems that after extensive discussions and disagreements, Tehran and Hezbollah decided to act separately, each according to its capabilities and strategic calculations. The Iranians are particularly concerned about the presence of large U.S. naval and air task forces in the region, and as a result are recalculating their course of action to avoid confrontation with such forces.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah decided on a retaliatory strike based on thousands of planned launches rather than a massive, high-quality strike on the central region. Only a few targets were designated in central Israel, primarily to uphold the Beirut equals Tel Aviv dogma.
What comes next?
The current escalation’s status remains unclear. Hezbollah claimed the morning's launches were just the first phase of its attack and that it struck 11 targets in the north with approximately 320 launches.
The damage in the north wasn’t severe, and in this initial stage, according to the terrorist organization, no Israelis were killed by Hezbollah fire. Some injuries were reported due to interception debris that fell within Israeli territory and into the sea.
The next steps will be determined by the Security Cabinet, considering the ongoing negotiations for a hostage deal are currently Israel's top priority. Another crucial factor is the unequivocal American demand that Israel avoid any action that could ignite a regional war. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration doesn’t want to get involved in a conflict that might require strikes on Iran and lead to a prolonged war so close to presidential elections in the U.S.
These two considerations are critical. To alleviate American concerns, Washington was notified well in advance that Israel intended to carry out a preemptive strike to thwart Hezbollah's attack. Consequently, the White House’s statements were in line with this, mainly expressing support for Israel and its right to defend itself.
Negotiations for a hostage deal will continue, but Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar likely still hopes for a regional war that would relieve him from the military pressure the IDF is currently exerting in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing for the possibility that Hezbollah will attempt to compensate for its failure with another day or two of fighting. The dilemma facing officials is how to prevent a situation where Israel enters another tense and fearful period of awaiting an attack, which Hezbollah might view as the second or third phase of its "revenge strike."
One option is for Israel to tell Lebanon that any further attempt to launch a retaliatory strike against it will automatically trigger a full-scale war by Israel against Lebanon. Of course, such a declaration would need to be coordinated with the U.S. and, most importantly, the government must be prepared to back up such diplomatic declarations with actions.
In any case, Israel mustn’t allow Hezbollah to keep it in a state of readiness and uncertainty as it has in recent weeks and in the slightly longer term: The situation in which the north is subjected to a war of attrition and continuous attacks must be brought to an end.
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