Friday, March 6, 2020

Erdogan vs Europe And The Migrant Crisis


Erdogan's Attempts to Blackmail Europe are Doomed to Fail





If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes he can bully European leaders by provoking a fresh migrant crisis in southern Europe, then he would be well-advised to think again.

Ankara's announcement that it is once again opening the floodgates to allow millions of refugees from Syria's brutal civil war to travel to south-eastern Europe in search of refuge has been taken to persuade European leaders to back Turkey's increasingly desperate situation in Syria.

Having launched an ill-considered military offensive against the Assad regime in northern Syria, Mr Erdogan now finds himself facing the consequences of his action, with regime forces, backed by Russia and Iran, waging a highly effective campaign against the Turks, which has so far resulted in the deaths of scores of Turkish troops.


In addition, Turkey's decision to deploy thousands of troops to Idlib province in northern Syria has resulted in a fresh wave of refugees fleeing across the border into southern Turkey, where Turkish officials are already struggling to cope with the estimated four million Syrian refugees that have already sought sanctuary in the sprawling refugee camps.


If the current crisis facing Turkey is entirely of Mr Erdogan's own making, that has not prevented the Turkish president from trying to deflect attention away from his own mishandling of the conflict by seeking to provoke a new migrant crisis in Europe.

Mr Erdogan used this tactic to great effect five years ago when, in response to Turkey's decision to allow more than a million Syrian refugees to travel to Europe, he succeeded in persuading the European Union to pledge six billion euros to Ankara in return for allowing the refugees to remain on Syrian soil.

Yet, to judge by the initial response from European leaders to Mr Erdogan's latest attempt to blackmail them, it seems that, this time around, the Turkish leader's ploy is unlikely to deliver the desired result.


Mr Erdogan is also about to discover that there has been a hardening of attitudes among European leaders about dealing with unwanted migrants since the Turkish leader last used his blackmail tactics five years ago.

At a meeting of EU ambassadors this week to discuss the migrant crisis, officials expressed their outrage at Ankara's behaviour.

Nor can Mr Erdogan expect any support from Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to the last migrant crisis by opening Germany's doors to an estimated one million refugees, a decision that seriously undermined her political popularity.


These days, senior politicians in Mrs Merkel's centre-right Christian Democrats take a more hard-nosed approach to the migrant issue, with one senior party member warning the migrants this week, "There is no point coming to Germany. We cannot take you in."

Europe might have fallen for Mr Erdogan's bully-boy tactics in the past. But all the evidence from the latest migrant crisis suggests they are not about to do so again.






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