Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Next Phase In Fallout: Retail Closings


47,000 Stores Shutter Across The US As Virtually All Retailers Stop Paying Rent





Even before the coronavirus pandemic ground the US economy to a halt, the US brick and mortar retail sector was facing an apocalypse of epic proportions with dozens of retailers filing for bankruptcy in recent years as Amazon stole everyone's market share...

Since June 2015, retail chains have accumulated more than $45 billion in aggregate chapter 11 liabilities in connection with over 80 bankruptcy filings:
... resulting in tens of thousands of stores across the nation shuttering.
So what has taken place in the retail sector in just the past few weeks is straight out of the the 9th circle of hell.
With cash flows dwindling, and their survival in question every day, the total collapse in revenue has meant that firms such as (recently reorganized) Mattress Firm and Subway are among some of the major U.S. retail and restaurant chains telling landlords they will withhold or slash rent in the coming months after closing stores to slow the coronavirus, Bloomberg reports citing sources.
Aware that one way (out of bankruptcy) or another (in bankruptcy), they will end up renegtiating their leases, retail chains are proactively calling for rent reductions through lease amendments and other measures starting in April.
Virtually every other US retailer has also told their landlords the same, and if not, they will soon.
These moves, as Bloomberg notes, mark the next phase in virus fallout: what happens to billions in rent owed for businesses that have been closed? The stakes are high. Retail has a slew of big chains in turnaround mode. And if they do withhold payments, there would be a ripple effect. Landlords can’t afford to stop collecting rent for long, with many property owners sitting on loads of debt.
Worse, if landlords refuse to budge, it's unclear how this mutually assured destruction will conclude in anyone's favor. The fiscal stimulus packages being considered don’t directly address rents. But the Federal Reserve’s actions may give banks the leeway to defer mortgage payments, allowing property owners to delay rent. Some retailers may also declare a “force majeure,” a contract clause that covers highly unusual events, although whether or not landlords or banks accept this is a different question.
“The court system is just going to get flooded with a million of these disputes between tenants and landlords,” said Vince Tibone, an analyst at Green Street Advisors. “If the government doesn’t step in in any form or fashion, it could get ugly. They need to respond quickly.”

In short: this will be the biggest in court mess ever, and whether it involves in court bankruptcy or not, will not matter one bit, as there is simply no money.



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