Collisions for global security, 2011
Momentum is building for two collisions of international interests in 2011. One involves the nature of the coalition operation in Libya, which carries with it implications about the role of the West in global security in general. The other is the status of a Palestinian state, and the jockeying of various regional actors to assume the lead role in brokering the fate of Israel.
Yet this is military force we’re talking about here, wielded by one group of sovereign nations against another. Treating the action as if it doesn’t merit the conventional signs of deliberation and bona fides is inherently destabilizing.
The collision that is coming is thus due to two factors: the West’s inability to achieve a resolution in Libya through the methods it has confined itself to, and its irresponsible, even unethical attitude toward the underpinnings of international security.
Aspiring leadership rivals are plentiful. They are scrambling now, but what we can expect to see from them are more alternative initiatives for handling Libya (some are already in the works) – along with, soon enough, a host of other regional security issues.
There may be a dramatic moment when Russia exercises a veto at the UN over a proposal from the NATO-led coalition. But even if there’s not, the West will have lost standing if the threat of a veto limits what it can do in Libya. It will lose standing if the exertions of a non-US, non-European actor, undertaken in an unrelated initiative, are what obtain a settlement in Libya. And it will lose standing with every day that the situation in Libya remains unresolved.
Nothing is certain at the moment, including how the various actors will line up. The “BRICS” group, for example – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – condemned the Libya intervention at its 14 April meeting. Can the BRICS retain their cohesion if Russia or South Africa (or both) presses for a particular resolution in Libya?
The bottom line?
Russia, Greece, and the African Union are all willing to back a settlement that leaves Qaddafi in a power position of some kind, with final conditions to be negotiated and multinational peacekeepers in Libya. (The latter factor would be a boon to Russia and/or some members of the African Union.)
The US and Western Europe have backed themselves into the opposite corner.
The longer we dither, however, the more coherent the alternative proposition will become.
Russia holds veto power over any UN endorsement of a ramp-up in NATO-led operations. Turkey will almost certainly try to play both sides. Coalition partners like Italy and Qatar – neither of which is a fan of major military action – may begin to waver.
Only one thing would have the hope of restoring the global power relationships that are being thrown up for grabs, and that is the US taking leadership to secure a resolution in Libya. Even now it’s not too late in terms of the conditions at hand. It is highly improbable, however.
Also in the news today, we see a long-awaited alliance between Hamas and Fatah, an alliance which will most likely have ramifications in the Middle East:
Hamas and Fatah?
Egyptian officials claim delegations from Fatah and Hamas have hammered out an agreement to form an interim Palestinian Authority unity government and fix a date for elections, Reuters reports.
The announcement comes as Abbas lobbies for the unilateral declaration of a PA state by the United Nations in September.
Many security officials have warned that allowing Hamas to return to prominence in the PA would lead to a Hamas takeover in Judea and Samaria, similar to that carried out in Gaza in 2007
The Fatah-Hamas Agreement
It has just been announced that Fatah and Hamas, the two bitter rivals in the Palestinian nationalist movement, have signed a unity accord to end their decade’s long divide. Their preliminary agreement, according to The New York Times, provides for their creation of a transnational unity government for both the West Bank and Gaza, to be followed by new elections after one year.
So, its all about forming a "unified" government so the world will more easily support a unity government in the West bank and Gaza. Interesting.
Prime Minister Netanyahu isn't so positive:
Immediately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a firm statement about the meaning of this agreement:
“The Palestinian Authority has to choose between peace with Israel and peace with Hamas,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a televised address on Wednesday. “Peace with both of them is impossible because Hamas aspires to destroy the state of Israel and says so openly.”
the PA decided that rather than go along any more with the current U.S. administration’s lofty plans, it had better cut a deal with Hamas than find that Hamas would take over the West Bank on its own, assuring the arrest, imprisonment or elimination of Fatah leaders, or the total collapse of any Fatah role in a forthcoming Palestinian state or territory.
Egypt is also involved in this scenario:
It also appears that helping broker the agreement between Fatah and Hamas was none other than representatives of the new post-Mubarak Egyptian government, a government that already has made some noises about wanting to abrogate the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt.
Moussa Abu Marzzouq, a Hamas negotiator, told the press that previously deadlocked talks had taken place because of help from the Egyptian mediators, who showed “exemplary performance.”
If there had to be further evidence of how dangerous the ousting of Mubarak was for the maintenance of Middle Eastern peace, this is it. As the NYT story put it, “the Egyptian revolution has reshuffled regional diplomacy.” Mubarak, despite his many faults, was considered hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood. Now that this is no longer the case, and that Hamas is a brother organization and offshoot of the MB, this problem no longer existed.
Exactly as predicted. Now we see what is being discussed for "security":
They also agreed on the issue of control of the security services. This is particularly dangerous, since the United States had been working with Fatah to help build these services in the West Bank, in the hope that Fatah could broaden its base and control and be able to stand up against Hamas. Now, this very service, which has received U.S. aid, is likely to fall under Hamas control.
This new development makes it even more than likely that with Assad in power in Syria, and Hamas in both Gaza and now the West Bank, that a new Middle East war is likely to break out.
One hopes that finally, even the witless Obama administration will see that appeasing the Palestinians and the Arab street is a hopeless task, and that putting a “peace process” in first place as Administration policy for the region is the worst possible policy to pursue.
Analysis: Syria unrest could destabilize Lebanon
The unrest sweeping Syria may whip up sectarian divisions that could spill across the border and threaten to destabilise Lebanon, a small neighbour where Damascus has both strong allies and enemies.
The upheaval in Syria, where a rights group said on Tuesday 400 people have been killed by security forces, has sectarian undercurrents because of Syrian President Bashar Assad's minority Alawite rule in a mainly Sunni Muslim country.
Alawite loyalists occupy pivotal positions in the Syrian military and Assad family insiders run the crucial security bodies, tying senior officers closely to Assad's own fate.
"If there is sectarian tension between Alawites and Sunnis in Syria this will definitely spill over to Lebanon," said a Lebanese analyst, alluding to past fighting between Alawites and Sunnis in northern Lebanon.
"Collisions" is one way to see these situations. I call them tipping points. But whatever you call them, they are being noticed by reporters around the world, and it confirms one common thought among prophecy watchers: Time is about up. The lid cannot be kept on this powder keg for much longer, its bound to erupt. Sooner or later, one of these "collisions", or "tipping points" will be reached and when that happens, the powder keg blows. And when that happens....Well, you know the rest of that story.
Dear Scott >>>>
I can FINALLY SEE why Hamas has been
so quiet recently......in terms of
rockets and missiles being fired
at the Jews.
It all makes sense, the games they
are playing.....with Egypt.
Stephen in Hawaii >>>>>
Yes -In fact, we seem to be seeing a Hamas-fatah-Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood alliance forming in the south. This is definitely an interesting alignment right now...
I was wondering if you could help me out with this scott, who are the gentiles and who are the jews?
Luke 21:24 and they (Israelites) will fall by the edge of the sword and be led captive into all the nations; and Jerusalem will be trampled on by the nations, until the appointed times of the nations are fulfilled.
I'm assuming it started with the romans, and will be fulfilled with the end of the revived roman empire EU rule.
Revelation 2:9 "I know your tribulation and poverty—but you are rich—and the blasphemy by those who say they themselves are Jews, and yet they are not but are a synagogue of Satan."
I figure the most high says this because the "jews" that inhabit the land now, follow the talmud
Revelation 3:9 "Look! I will give those from the synagogue of Satan who say they are Jews, and yet they are not but are lying—look! I will make them come and do obeisance before your feet and make them know I have loved you."
I'm guessing God said that because of this....
Revelation 12:9 "So down the great dragon was hurled, the original serpent, the one called Devil and Satan, who is misleading the entire inhabited earth; he was hurled down to the earth, and his angels were hurled down with him."
Have we been mislead on who true Israel is? Your scripture expertece would be greatly appreciated, Thanks scott in advance
Brad - sorry it took me a while to get back to this.
I'm not 100% sure what you are asking...Are you asking about the separation between "the Church" and the "Nation of Israel"? In the sense of dispensations?
Or, are you asking about the differences in judgment/belief for the Church and the Nation of Israel?
Or are you asking if the Jews in Israel are not the true Biblical Jews according to certain racists sects of so-called "Christianity" like "British Israelism"??
See the "Theory of Khazar ancestry of Ashkenazi Jews" -here- on Wikipedia, about 3/4s of the way down the page.
If so, I would have to answer it this way: The prophecy of Ezekiel 36, especially beginning at vs 8; "...But ye, O mountains of Israel, ye shall shoot forth your branches, and yield your fruit to my people of Israel; for they are soon to come..." has certainly been fulfilled as Israel is now the most productive land in the world, even surpassing America, as the "Blessing" we [temporarily] held to provoke Israel to jealousy, has been removed from US and is passing back to [who else?..] true Israel!
See Matthew 21:43 Therefore say I unto you, The kingdom of God shall be taken from you, and given to a nation [Well,...other than Israel, that could only mean a Gentile nation...] bringing forth the fruits thereof...
Romans 10:19 But I say, Did not Israel know? First Moses saith, I will provoke you to jealousy by them that are no people [ie. a Gentile nation], and by a foolish nation I will anger you.
So, are the people in Israel true Jews, true Israel?? It certainly seems that the prophecy of Ezekiel 37 is now also fulfilled and the people have their flesh on, but not the Holy Spirit of Life.
Who else would be foolish enough to stubbornly claim to be Jews and be hated of all nations, persecuted, threatened with extinction, and more, especially knowing just the OT prophecies of what's still to come?!?
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