Ron Ben-Yishai
The two assassinations that took place Tuesday night and hours later on Wednesday morning, one in Beirut and the other in Tehran, are a direct challenge to Iran and its proxy strategy. In essence, Israel is forcing the Iranian leadership, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) to decide whether they want a full-scale direct war with Israel or if they’d rather gradually de-escalate the situation.
If Israel indeed stands behind Ismail Haniyeh's assassination, Israel's security officials and intelligence community including Mossad, Military Intelligence Directorate and the Israeli Air Force, can claim a brilliant military and intelligence achievement in both cases.
However, that's not the main point. The main point is Israel telling Iran and its proxies that if they don't stop, it won’t hesitate to head into a full-scale war not only with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, but also with Tehran itself.
This means that we in Israel also need to prepare ourselves for a major war. In such a scenario, the home front will become the main front and will be subject to missile attacks of all kinds, along with kamikaze drones which will be launched not only from Lebanon and Yemen, but mainly from Iran.
We’re also likely to face an Iranian attempt to deploy armed Shia fighters from Iran, Iraq and Syria into the conflict, and perhaps even Houthis from Yemen who will be transferred to Syria or join Hezbollah in Lebanon in attempts to carry out raids on the northern border.
Before deciding to act in Beirut and possibly in Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Mossad Director David Barnea and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar knew very well that this was the penultimate step in the descent into a regional war.
Therefore, the Iranians are also in a state of uncertainty and are currently facing a difficult dilemma. On the other hand, it seems that Israel has clarified to Tehran’s leadership through these operations that it’s ready for a major war, both logistically and morally, although it doesn’t want one. Now it’s the Iranians’ turn to decide.
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