Russia’s Anti-Satellite Nuke Could Leave Lower Orbit Unusable, Test Vehicle May Already Be Deployed

Russia’s Anti-Satellite Nuke Could Leave Lower Orbit Unusable, Test Vehicle May Already Be Deployed

JOSEPH TREVITHICK, OLIVER PARKEN

A senior U.S. government official has indicated that Russia already has some kind of clandestine testbed in space as part of its development of a nuclear-armed on-orbit anti-satellite weapon.

 This comes just days after another official warned Congress that this "indiscriminate" weapon, details about which first emerged publicly earlier this year, could be capable of rendering low Earth orbit completely unusable for a prolonged period of time.

Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, discussed Russia’s nuclear anti-satellite weapon developments in new detail today in a fireside chat that the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C., hosted.

"The United States is extremely concerned that Russia may be considering the incorporation of nuclear weapons into its counterspace programs based on information we deem credible," Stewart said. "The United States has been aware of Russia's pursuit of this sort of capability dating back years, but only recently have we been able to make a more precise assessment of their progress."

Stewart stressed at multiple times during the conversation that the U.S. government has not assessed that Russia has "deployed" this capability in any way, and that American officials are actively trying to discourage that from happening.

However, the Assistant Secretary of State did indicate that something is in space now as part of the development of this new nuclear anti-satellite weapon.

"Russia has publicly claimed that their satellite is for scientific purposes," Stewart said "However, the orbit is in a region not used by any other spacecraft. That in itself was somewhat unusual. And the orbit is a region of higher radiation than normal, lower earth orbits, but not high enough of a radiation environment to allow accelerated testing of electronics as Russia has described the purpose to be."

Stewart did not name the satellite in question or elaborate on its claimed purpose. Putting some kind of testbed in orbit before deploying an actual space-based weapon system, especially one involving a nuclear weapon system, would make good sense. This would be even more prudent if the orbit passes through areas where there is increased radiation risks, the Van Allen belts, something we will come back to later.

"We aren't talking about a weapon that can be used to attack humans or cause structural damage on Earth," according to Stewart. "Instead… our analysts assess that detonation [of a nuclear device] in a particular placement in orbit of a magnitude and location would render lower Earth orbit unusable for a certain amount of time." Low Earth Orbit (LEO) refers to a band of space that measures roughly 100 miles to 1,200 miles above the earth, and which is highly congested. Many capabilities that are highly important to society exist in this orbital realm.

In talking about the projected anti-satellite weapon’s capabilities, Stewart also referenced remarks from Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb earlier this week. Plumb discussed this same topic at a hearing before members of the House Armed Services Committee on May 1. There, he answered questions on a written statement to Congress regarding the Department of Defense's 2025 Fiscal Year budget request.

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