Rumors Of War: Israel vs Iran/Hezbollah Battle Looms

Iran is strategic threat, battle with Hezbollah more likely - analysis

UDI SHAHAM 

Iran’s investment in its nuclear plan is a strategic threat to Israel — which, in return, is constantly operating in different ways to sabotage the program and delay Tehran's production of a bomb.

At the end of 2020, Iran found itself at an unprecedented low point, the result of a hostile US administration, heavy sanctions, floods, earthquakes and of course the novel coronavirus  - just some of the challenges it had to overcome recently.

Experts believe that the sharp drop in Iran’s GDP is equal in its severity to the era of the Iran-Iraq war.

However, as an old proud nation, Iran did not let a bad year affect its long-term goals — to develop a nuclear bomb and strengthen its dominance throughout the region.

On the bomb development aspect, it is assumed that if Iran would make a decision today to start building a nuclear weapon — it would take around two years.

On the regional aspect, Iran is looking to spread its hegemony across what is often referred to in the IDF as the "Shi’ite Crescent", which spans from Iran to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, and nurtures its relations with the Sunni Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip

In the mechanism of this entrenchment, Iran established cultural and religious ties; it sends money and ammunition and supports local regimes.

 Israel's eyes are first and foremost on Lebanon where Hezbollah - the prime Iranian proxy - continues to grow in strength.

In the latter, Iran tries to carry out attacks against Israel in the Golan Heights. An example of that could be seen in November and in August when the IDF revealed IEDs that were put near the Syrian border by the 840 unit — an Iranian elite unit that usually operates outside of Iran against Western targets, and receives orders from the Quds brigade.

HOWEVER, LEBANON is considered the most fragile front that Israel has.

The idea of “the war between the wars” became a permanent status, and both Israel and Hezbollah are now learning how to operate within it.

For Hezbollah, there is still an “open account” with Israel, which killed one of its operatives in Syria in August 2019.

Throughout the year Hezbollah continued with its rearmemant and received more advanced ammunition and weapons from Iran — which includes even precision guided munitions.

 Hezbollah is determined to fulfill its goal and settle the account with Israel. This could be seen through a limited confrontation along the border, which might escalate into a day, or several days of intensive combat.