Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Black Monday...Part Two


Black Monday... Part Two




At its lows today, this was the market's biggest down day since 1987 (by the close the biggest since Oct 2018)!

In a reflection of the total loss of faith policymakers among BTFDers, @Sentimentrader notes that:
This is the only day in the history of S&P 500 futures that they gapped down more than -5% and didn't close above the open.

Did the 11-year-long, almost unstoppable bull run that started on March 9, 2009, just end on March 9, 2020?







Here’s another stat for the record books. Total U.S. Trading volume, on a 10-day moving average basis, is now higher than during the meltdown in 2008. Volume is another whopper today, over 17 billion shares.


Thanks to the market perceiving President Trump's response as remaining one of "denial" of the scale of the problem, and concerns that any fiscal stimulus will be underwhelming, things were already anxious as markets opened Sunday night. But the situation was worsened considerably as both Russia and Saudi Arabia stood poised to flood the market with cheap crude (supply) in an all-out price war just as the coronavirus is spurring the first contraction in demand since 2009.


“The situation we are witnessing today seems to have no equal in oil market history,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“A combination of a massive supply overhang and a significant demand shock at the same time.”

Oil futures fell by about one-third in New York and London on Monday, the biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991, before pulling back to a 20% decline.


US markets were a bloodbath from Sunday night future open (ETFs showed things were uglier than the 5% limit down in futs) and stocks were unable to show any real resilience...


Extreme Fear has reached its extreme-est level...

Chinese stocks - somewhat uncharacteristically - tumbled overnight... finally...

European stock markets just suffered their worst decline since Lehman... Oct 2008...
Europe is now down over 22.5% - a bear market - from highs just 3 weeks ago...







European banks crashed to their lowest since March 2009... but judging by EU bank credit, there's more to come...


And European credit is crashing...


Today's crash in Treasury yields was the biggest since Nov 2008







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