Monday, February 6, 2023

Looking Beyond The Distractions

Hedge Fund CIO: "China's Helium Balloon Is A Distraction: The Real Risks Are Off The Radar"
TYLER DURDEN


Clicks, conspiracies, coverups. 

And presumably some Americans felt safer knowing a nation that landed a rover on the dark side of the moon and tested encrypted satellite communications using quantum entanglement technology, is no longer floating a helium balloon overhead.

It reminded us that what we fear need not make much sense. 

The real risks, of course, are most often off the radar.

One such risk is that the nation with the world’s most important economy and mightiest military is becoming increasingly difficult to responsibly govern. 

China’s helium balloon illustrated this disturbing fact for all those tuned in to its faint signal.

But the much larger object floating overhead is the Federal Reserve’s unfathomably bloated balance sheet, which is both impossible to photograph and even more difficult to explain to the nation’s distracted citizenry.

“We’ve raised rates four and a half percentage points, and we’re talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive,” said Chairman Powell, at the press conference. “Why do we think that’s probably necessary? We think because inflation is still running very hot,” he added. But the yield curve remained steeply inverted, dismissing Powell’s guidance, as the bond market fears sustained rate hikes when combined with the ongoing quantitative tightening campaign will precipitate a hard landing.



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