It seems Putin Has Been Drawn Into a War that He Doesn’t Want to Fight.
The Rand Corporation is the Military/Security Complex’s Think Tank. The comments by its members confirm my reporting that Putin’s “No-war War” has destroyed the credibility of Russia’s military. Are Russian nationalists so politically weak that the pro-West Atlanticist Integrationists can prevent a Russian victory? https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/02/one-year-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html
Putin’s failure to use the necessary force to subdue Ukraine has increased the confidence of US policymakers and will lead to more provocations of Russia. In effect, the neoconservatives have dismissed Putin as a capable opponent. There is danger in this conclusion.
China faces a similar situation. China won’t go to war because 100 US soldiers are sent to Taiwan. When next 1,000 arrive, that’s not enough to fight over either. The failure of Chinese reaction, other than angry words, will encourage more US intervention until nuclear weapons are deployed in Taiwan.