Friday, February 24, 2023

What are we pursuing in Ukraine? Degrading Russian military forces? Maybe making connected people rich?

Ukraine’s Friends May Doom It – And Us

The DC establishment people obsessed with Ukraine to the exclusion of all else, who portray themselves as its bestest buddies, are likely to do what they have done on pretty much every other foreign policy question in the last three decades – lead us (and, not incidentally Ukraine) into disaster. One day, if this keeps up, their pathetic flag emojis flying on their Twitter usernames, will be gone – replaced by The Next Thing – and Ukraine will be a wasteland. Hell, we may be a wasteland too. 

These same foreign policy geniuses who gave us Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya now tell us they are going to destroy the armies of the nation with the most nukes in the world and prosecute its leader, but nah, there’s no chance there’ll be a nuclear war. Let’s just say that with their track record, you should consider investing in lead shielding for your bunker.

The fact is that Iraq was not the worst foreign policy debacle of the last three decades. Not turning post-USSR Russia into an ally – or at least a not-enemy – was. Now, in large part because Democrat politicians found it in their interests to do so (RUSSIA! RUSSIA! RUSSIA!), Russia is our enemy and it is sidling up to our even scarier enemy, Red China. Great job, everyone. Just spectacular. Letting you people run our foreign policy is like letting the Lincoln Project run a daycare center.

Now we have to deal with a major conventional war in Ukraine. And we have two problems – the gross incompetence of the establishment, led by senile Joe Biden, and the dwindling domestic political support in the US for this endless stalemate that will only be a stalemate until the Russians rebuild their forces and go on the offensive.

Instead of a strategy, we have blind action, or inaction as the case may be. We have options, but the options seem untethered to any actual goal.

Option One was to butt out and let them decide their own dispute themselves – or to push Ukraine to settle.

Option Two is to go whole hog – give them anything and everything that kills Russians with the goal of driving them all or most of the way out. You hear people talking about M1 Abrams tanks and F16s, but that’s not everything. Those are merely the most visible components of a total force that is modeled on our force. A full commitment means rebuilding the Ukrainian army into a real western army – and I know from experience they are not that. That means comms, logistics, intelligence, and such, not just guns and bombs. You think we have spent a lot so far? We are talking hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars and a lot of time. 
 We’d just bankrupt ourselves, and drain our own war stocks, doing it.

Then there’s Option Three, the current plan, which is the worst of all possible worlds. We give the UKRs enough stuff to create a bloody stalemate but not to break it.

It becomes a meat grinder of the Ukrainians firing our shells and the Russians firing back and the lines barely moving. This is no sweeping mechanized battle like our forces train for. This is proto-World War One stuff.

And it will go on until the Russian build their combat power up enough to retake the offensive.

If the midwits running our foreign policy into the ground knew any history, they would be very scared. The Russians got clobbered by Napoleon right until they drove him out of Moscow in defeat. Hitler was doing fine right until the Russians threw him out of the country and took his capital

The Ukrainians, with just enough stuff not to lose for the moment, will face defeat. And everyone will be surprised that one day, suddenly, the entire front is collapsing and Ukrainian forces are in retreat.

And this may come sooner rather than later because the establishment is killing the chance to avoid this outcome through the application of its trademark stupidity and arrogance

And then we see what is going on here at home, with the border wide open, the economy collapsing, and crime rising, and we see that our concerns are being ignored. We see us being ignored. Biden could not make it to Ohio for the chemical chaos, but he could wing his way across the sea to take some selfies with a local potentate. The message the Ukraine-crazy establishment is sending is clear. Ukrainians are more important than regular Americans. Illegal aliens are more are more important than regular Americans. Criminals are more important than regular Americans. Everyone is more important than regular Americans.

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