The typical incubation period for the new coronavirus is five days, according to public health scientists who say the current COVID-19 quarantine period of two weeks is “reasonable.”
An accurate estimate of the incubation period for a new virus makes it easier for experts to predict the dynamics of the outbreak and to implement effective control measures.
As of Monday 9 March, the disease has infected 109,000 people and killed 3,800.
Italy has banned all non-essential movement in Lombardy and 14 other provinces and ordered the closure of schools, gyms, museums and nightclubs across the country for a week.
An analysis of data on infections from COVID-19 by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health revealed a median incubation period of 5.1 days.
It compares to a mean illness-incubation period of about three days for the human coronaviruses that cause common colds.
“Based on our analysis of publicly available data, the current recommendation of 14 days for active monitoring or quarantine is reasonable, although with that period some cases would be missed over the long-term,” said study senior author Justin Lessler, an associate professor in the Bloomberg School’s Department of Epidemiology.
The analysis suggests that about 97.5 percent of people who develop symptoms of COVID-19 will do so within 11.5 days of exposure. The researchers estimated that for every 10,000 individuals quarantined for 14 days, only about 101 would develop symptoms after being released from quarantine.
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