Saturday, March 14, 2020

Facts, Realty And Numbers


Coronavirus Hysteria Worse Than the Disease



Sure, Coronavirus or COVID-19 as it is also called, is disturbing and scary. But when you consider how many people are likely to die, and who is likely to die, compared to the statistics in mortality for so many other conditions and diseases, this is mass craziness in terms of fear.

Coronavirus has caused a fear contagion. The fact that it is a “pandemic,” only means that it exists around the world. This is a health care crisis that has now precipitated an economic crisis because of lack of perspective. 


As of March 12, 2020, there have been only 37 people to die from Coronavirus in the United States. As of March 10, 2020, only 32 people had died from Coronavirus. Of those 32 people, about 24 of them died in a nursing home in Washington State. That means in those two days, only five more people had died from Coronavirus. Is this enough of a reason to bring economic activity to halt? I don’t think so. Normal Americans are able to cope with these types of risks and displacements. Unfortunately we have become a diminished people, no longer able to face reality and difficulties. It’s a kind of national cowardice. Let me say this clearly: life is inherently dangerous, and none of us are going to get out alive.


Let’s talk about other causes of preventable death and see how much significantly greater they are than Coronavirus is likely ever to be. The following are the most recent figures that I pulled from reputable internet sources, such as the Centers for Disease Control.
  • People killed in car accidents each year in the United States: 35,000.
  • People killed by influenza last year in the United States: 35,000. The year before that 61,000 people died from the flu.
  • Number of people that die of heart disease in the United States each year: 650,000.
  • Number of people that die of cancer each year: 610,000.
  • Number of people that die from smoking each year: 485,000.
  • Number of people that die from alcohol-related deaths each year: 88,000.
  • Number of people killed by accidents and unintentional injuries each year in the United States: 170,000.

In 1918, 575,000 people in the United States died from influenza. We have been here before, and obviously we don’t want these types of deaths to happen again, but it seems extreme to think that this virus which does not appear to be all that lethal to healthy people will cause this type of catastrophe.










Rahm Emanuel once famously said, “Never let a crisis go to waste.”  He meant that when a crisis arises, big government progressives like him must do what they can to increase government intrusion into our lives.  In short, when it comes to the coronavirus, while the presence of the virus on our planet is true, it is a reality that the virus makes people sick, and it can kill some people who have compromised or lower immune systems, it is also providing just the crisis the left had been hoping for to shove government down our throats just a little bit more.


The fact that the disease has spread around the world is true.  The hysteria, however, is manufactured.  The virus is being intentionally misrepresented as something we would see in science fiction dystopia movies, with the intent to create panic, and use the crisis as a political weapon against the Trump administration.  The progressive left intends for the coronavirus to be Trump’s Katrina, a convenient opportunity during an election year.

I live in Riverside County, and in my county store shelves are looking more bare than usual, and thanks to a recommendation by Governor Gavin Newsom, large gatherings are being cancelled.  Countrywide, the NBA, MLS, and NHL have all cancelled the remainder of their seasons, and the NCAA has cancelled March Madness.  Disneyland is closed, as are other places that generally attract crowds.  Schools are cancelling classes, and are in many cases moving everything online.  All of this in the name of stopping the spread of the disease.

In other countries, like Italy, the whole nation is shutting down.  And, you know, I kind of get it.  The dead have piled up to the tune of 1,016, with 15,113 cases of the coronavirus in that country.

That all said, this is not the Black Death that wiped out Europe during the Dark Ages, or a global scourge of death like in Stephen King’s ‘The Stand’, or the massive list of zombie apocalypse movies we have seen in theaters.  I agree we should be concerned regarding any viral threat, but we must not live in fear, or overstate the realities for the sake of political expediency.

The world population is a bit more than seven and a half billion people, with about 125,000 cases of the coronavirus that have been reported.  Yes, it is likely the number is actually higher, but let’s go with what we know.  We are talking something like a millionth of a percent of the population testing positive for corona virus. Only 0.00000305 percent of the U.S. population has tested positive with the coronavirus.  Worldwide, roughly 1 out of every 15 million people have been infected, and in the U.S., 1 in every 3 million have been infected.  And, truth be told, a massive majority of those reported cases have already recovered.  80% of the people’s symptoms are mild, and of the over 4,000 deaths worldwide, nearly all of them were people who were older, or had some kind of condition that lowered their ability to fight off the disease.


Meanwhile, in recent history, we lose a little more than 10,000 people per year to the flu.  18,000 people have died from the Swine Flu, and when it first appeared in April of 2009, it took the Obama administration ten months to take action because they didn’t consider it that large of a threat.  HIV/AIDS has killed 36 million since its emergence in 1981.

The coronavirus, based on those numbers, is not nearly the killer they are making it out to be.  In truth, it is actually a minor irritant.

Also, we are being told the coronavirus is spread from person to person, can remain airborne for about three hours, and you could be up to six feet from an infected person and catch it.  A distance beyond six feet from an infected person will likely keep you safe.

So why are we seeing all of the panic?  Why are we scrambling as if we are living in the world of Resident Evil?  Don’t get me wrong, I’m concerned, but I am not going to be hysterical about all of this, and I am disappointed that as citizens we are literally allowing the government to take advantage of this situation to dictate our lives even more so than usual, and blame a Trump administration that has not only been pro-active, but was criticized as being overcautious February 2 when the President shut down travel from China to the United States, and his decision to declare a public health emergency on January 31.  Back then, none of the Democrats supported the President’s actions, by the way.





Panic & The Pandemic: Is There A Better Approach?


Cliff Mass 


Our society is now transitioning into panic about the coronavirus.
Universities and schools are being shuttered, sports activities and public gatherings are being cancelled, individuals are hoarding toilet paper and supplies, travel is being severely constrained, the stock market has crashed, and business activity is nose-diving.  Major businesses are forcing their employees to work at home.
This blog will try to summarize the coronavirus threat, suggest that some of the panic-driven actions may not be well-founded, and that there may be a far better, more effective approach to deal with the virus.

If one steps back and looks at the actual numbers, particularly against other threats we face, the situation is far less apocalyptic than some are suggesting.   As of today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes 1215 cases and 36 deaths in the U.S. since January 1.  This is a very, very small percentage of the U.S.  population of 331 million.   The number of U.S. cases no longer appears to be going up rapidly, as noted by the latest CDC graphic (see below).  Note the drop after the peak in early March.




In China, where the problem started, the number of cases is rapidly declining (see below).







According to Washington State's Department of Health, the state has had 457 coronavirus cases and 31 deaths.  Most (23) of the death's in Washington have been limited to one nursing facility in Kirkland with a large number of elderly, chronically ill patients.  In fact, according to the NY Times, this facility would typically lose 5 patients a month.
This facility also represents about 50 of the coronavirus cases in Washington, since several first responders and staff were sickened (with no fatalities) due to exposure at this site.    In many ways, the Kirkland facility represented an unfortunate random event--the random exposure of a group of extremely vulnerable patients.    If this random exposure had not happened, Washington State would probably not be getting headlines as a center for this virus outbreak.


There are undoubtedly many, many cases of coronavirus infection in the younger, healthier members of society, many of which are not aware of their infection.  But without testing, we don't really know other than by indirect statistical approaches.  Thus, the "death rates" are clearly far too high, and highly deceptive.


It is important to note that the coronavirus numbers are extraordinarily smaller than those of the flu.
Below is a flu graphic I got from CDC and added the coronavirus cases (see the gray dot).  In fact, the gray dot should be much smaller.   For example, we had 36 coronavirus deaths nationally so far compared to 61,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018.  45 million cases that year compared to 1200 coronavirus cases so far this year.  In WA state, 75 have died of flu through the end of February and several years have brought 200- 300 deaths from influenza.





 Coronavirus is also not in the same league as auto accidents, which kill 1.25 millions a year (3287 deaths a day), with 25-50 million injured or disabled for the worldwide statistics, while about 38,000 die in the U.S. each year from auto wrecks.


Are our political leaders shutting down society for the flu or stopping auto travel because of deaths on the roadway? The answer is no.  So why are they willing to close down society to deal with the coronavirus, which has represented only a small smaller risk to the general population?  Life is full of risks that must be considered, mitigated, and dealt with.  But society must continue to function.

As the virus began to spread in China, the U.S. needed to develop a coherent plan for understanding and dealing with the crisis.  This did not happen.   President Trump probably made the right call about cutting off travel to China, but the lack of coherent planning beyond that is apparent.  The lack of testing is a major failure of his administration and others.




3 comments:

James said...

Hi Scott
The coronavirus.....what can you say in my opinion, it's a farce
panic, overreaction, economic threats you name it. Here in Adelaide, South Australia
13 Cases 7 already sent home our city is around 1 Million greater metropolitan area so 1
in 77000 Citizens this is media frenzy but....it will be interesting to see the worlds response i believe God moves in mysterious ways ways an opportunity for mankind to set aside economies, greed, and to care for one another maybe this is a something so divine that we are just coming to terms with it all, Maybe its time for nations to lock down and care for their people for the first time since WW2.Its very obvious the way greed has taken hold of our Governments, and our people of the world mobile phones,Netflix,Stan,Streaming Movies all the codes of sport which earn millions for so few possibly about to be shut down.Maybe its time to realise.....that a Father, Mother and family doing it tough mean more for the first time in a long time. I am watching this whole situation play out with great interest... My personal believe it's a cross road for mankind perhaps to set aside all.
Best wishes to you.
May the lord be with you
James

Scott said...

James,
Very interesting points. It is funny how it seems to have awakened people out of their "normalcy bias" and I have to wonder how many people are now, for the first time, taking a look at prophecy too. We know God doesn't want anyone to perish...I have to wonder if this is a last wake-up call before the gathering up....

James said...

Hi Scott
Thanks for your thoughts i agree many people i know are now starting to question. One that sticks in my mind the most is a fellow friend not really that convinced on faith started to read about the dead sea scrolls
and discuss with me that surly these writings just did not appear out of nowhere..what drives a person to write such things....mmmmm. so i do agree interesting days ahead
James