On The Brink:

Is it just me, or does the entire world appear to be just on the brink of imploding? Whether it is the financial situation in the EU and the U.S., North Korea, China, Syria, Egypt, nuclear threats, cyber-wars, new bird flu threats, aka 'pestilence', Iran, etc. - this planet seems to be standing on a ledge waiting for one small push...Today's news underscores that idea:

U.S. Raises Nuclear Alert To DEFCON 3. China Mobilizes, Masses Troops On North Korea Border

Friday, April 12, the US raised its nuclear alert status to DEFCON 3, Condition Yellow (out of 5 levels), stating “There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States at this time, however the situation is considered fluid and can change rapidly.” Many believe that North Korea will launch their test missile on or about April 15. Japan has instructed its armed forces to shoot down any North Korean missile that heads toward its territory.

Contrary to comments from the White House Thursday, the Pentagon reported that “North Korea probably has nuclear weapons that can be mounted on ballistic missiles.” This is a very significant admission by the United States and a dangerous change to the Korean situation.

China has mobilized its military and is massing near the border with North Korea. This step was taken after North Korea placed a mid-range Musudan missile ready to launch on its east coast and its “dedication of more facilities at the Yongbon complex to nuclear weapons work.”

According to some sources in Washington, the Chinese military mobilization is not directed at deterring Pyongyang but as support for North Korea’s steps.

Late Thursday, Representative Doug Lamborn, a Colorado Republican, made a disquieting disclosure. He quoted an excerpt from a Defense Intelligence Agency report expressing “moderate confidence” in the finding that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles whose “reliability will be low.”
This disclosure raised a furor in the United States, bringing forth a White House response. The director of national intelligence, James Clapper, released a statement saying that the assessment did not represent a consensus of the nation’s intelligence community [16 agencies in all] and that “North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.”

Pentagon press secretary George Little backed him up by saying: “It would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in the passage.”

US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Seoul Friday. After meeting South Korean leaders, he travels next to Beijing and Tokyo.

Analysis: What Is The World Learning From How The U.S. Is Handling N. Korean Crisis?

• North Korea really is threatening a preemptive nuclear strike on the U.S. 
• A very dangerous moment – two untested leaders facing off against each other on the Korean Peninsula.
• Kim Jung Un, the dictator in Pyongyang, has only been on the job about 18 months. Is he really in control, or are others making military decisions? Could he/they miscalculate?
• Park Geun-hye is the newly elected President of South Korea. First woman elected in the country’s history. Only been on the job two months. Daughter of the authoritarian leader of South Korea from the 1960s. Campaigned on making peace with the North. Does she know what she’s doing? Does she have what it takes in a crisis like this?
• Then there is President Obama who has not faced a crisis this serious – akin in some ways to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
• The President is right to be sending military assets to the Korean Peninsula, including B-52s, Stealth fighters, warships, missile defense systems, and so forth – presumably sending a message that we are ready for war. But is he?
• The President made a serious mistake to cancel our test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile – we need to pursue a police of peace through strength, yet canceling a test like that is a sign of weakness, not strength.
• The rest of the world is watching — what are they learning about how President Obama handles crises?
• What is Iran learning? — They are working hand-in-glove with North Korea on nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles. They may actually be using Pyongyang as a research & development lab to perfect miniaturized nuclear warheads that Iran could use against Israel.
• What is Israel learning? — That the U.S. isn’t really serious about stopping a rogue power from getting The Bomb.
• The crisis in North Korea makes it more likely Netanyahu will launch a preemptive military strike against Iran, possibly this year.

N Korea Capable Of Striking Neighboring Nations

I predict that if this escalation does not rapidly cool down, the U.S. will be forced to unleash a military strike on North Korea's missile assets. I am not the only one concerned about this possibility.

This YouTube video claims to show a stream of vehicles fleeing the North and crossing the DMZ into South Korea, escorted by a military vehicle. Their rationale? Possibly to escape an imminent U.S. military strike on North Korea.

Interestingly, this is one of the few times when I actually agree with the Pentagon that a pre-emptive strike is morally justified against North Korea. If the U.S. attacks North Korea's military leadership (but not civilians), it will be an act of national self-defense against an irrational aggressor who had directly and persistently threatened to nuke U.S. cities.

China Carries Out Artillery Drills Near N. Korean Border

China recently moved an Army corps close to the North Korean border and staged a live-fire exercise with tanks and self-propelled guns. 

Experts believe Beijing is taking no chances in case a North Korean provocation leads to an emergency. 

The official Global Times on Monday reported that an armored brigade from a Shenyang mechanized infantry unit carried out live-fire maneuvers near the border on April 1.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun quoted a source in Dandong as saying the Chinese military has also stepped up vehicle patrols along the North Korean border.

Iraq, Afghanistan And The Fall Of The Middle East

Two countries that serve as a fulcrum for such a conflict are Iraq and Afghanistan. Both are now key to the great power struggle for the Middle East between the United States and Iran. Both hold important geopolitical positions in the region. Iraq is the gateway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, while Afghanistan has for centuries held a position as a buffer between the Indian Subcontinent and such powers as Russia and Iran.

In both countries, the United States is on defense, while Iran is on offense.

 Iraq has effectively become a de facto ally of Iran. During the Iraq War, Teheran supplied large quantities of weapons to Shia insurgents, especially Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, itself defeated thanks to the U.S. surge. However, Sadr has since turned to politics, and his party is now the largest in Iraq’s parliament. This, combined with Maliki’s style of leadership and foreign policy, has seen a considerable increase in Iran’s influence over the past couple of years.

Given the increasingly close cooperation between Teheran and Baghdad in intelligence and security, Iranian forces could launch an attack from Iraq into the Arabian Peninsula, using insurgent and terrorist attacks (made simpler by the large Shia populations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, concentrated in the oil-rich coastal regions) as a prelude to a conventional invasion. The warning time available to U.S. planners would be greatly reduced, as would the ability to react effectively. Since this would be probably taken in concert with Iranian moves elsewhere (i.e. the Strait of Hormuz and by proxy against Israel), the danger of Teheran successfully waging war is considerably increased.

Whatever the course of events, the above scenarios would cause enormous destabilization in the Middle East. Add such wild cards as the unfinished “Arab Spring,” use of WMD by states as Iran and Syria and an Iranian-sponsored guerrilla and terror offensive against Israel, and the consequences only become more disastrous. At worst, the position of the United States in the Middle East–an area of vital concern to the West–might collapse, with results that, for the world as a whole, would be a catastrophe.

West Has 'Hard Evidence' Chemical Weapons Used In Syria

Diplomats say the West has firm proof that chemical weapons have been deployed at least once over the course of the civil war that has been ravaging Syria for two years.

“In one case, we have hard evidence,” one diplomat was quoted by AFP as saying Thursday. And “there are several examples where we are quite sure that shells with chemicals have been used in a very sporadic way.”

 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the Syrian government to accept an expanded UN inquiry into alleged chemical weapons use, saying he had concluded that an alleged attack in Homs in December warranted investigation.

Syria on Monday rejected the expanded investigation, which it had originally sought to look into alleged use of chemical weapons by rebels in March on the village of Khan al-Assal. The rebels blamed regime forces for that attack.

Britain and France asked the UN to investigate allegations of chemical weapons use in Khan al-Assal and another village, Ataybah, on March 19, as well as Homs on December 23.

US President Barack Obama said in 2012 that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government would cross a “red line” and prompt direct action from the United States.

The US, Israel, and Jordan are particularly concerned about the fate of Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons, which is believed to be divided among several storage sites throughout the country.

In addition to the possibility that Assad may use the weapons as a desperate measure to stay in power, there are fears that some of the weapons may find their way into the hands of terror groups in Syria or Lebanon.

U.S. Ships 140,000 Teargas Canisters To Egypt's Pro-Muslim Brotherhood Regime

The sources said the ship, SS Jamestown, contained five containers with 140,000 teargas canisters produced by Combined Systems International, based in Jamestown, Pa.

“The shipping documents stipulate that only the Egyptian government may use the canisters, and that they are forbidden to re-export the shipment or sell it to third parties,” a shipping document published by the Egyptian daily Al Masri Al Yom.

The shipment arrived amid a crackdown by the Islamist regime of
President Mohammed Morsi against the secular and pro-democratic opposition. Egypt receives $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military assistance.

The Interior Ministry ordered the teargas for $2.5 million and
delivered by an Egyptian Air Force air transport. A ministry spokesman, Hani
Abdul Latif, said the teargas would help security forces protect government
and critical facilities.

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