SIKESTON, Mo. -
Competing analysis articles appeared Monday inThe New York Times and last week in the German daily Die Welt outlining vastly different conclusions about Israel’s military capability to knock out Iran’s nuclear weapons program.While The New York Times report cast doubt on Israel’s success chances, Hans Rühle, who directed the planning department of the German Defense Ministry between 1982-1988, expressed confidence that Israel’s air force could decimate Iran’s principal nuclear installations.
In a sharp contrast to the Times analysis, Hans Rühle, a leading German security expert, asserted last week in a lengthy article in the Die Welt that a comprehensive Israel-based bombing campaign could significantly set back, perhaps a decade or more, Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
In the article titled “How Israel can destroy Iran’s nuclear program” Rühle analyzed the number of Israeli fighter jets and bombs necessary to obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Citing experts, Rühle writes that an extensive bombing campaign is within Israel’s capability to decimate Iran’s ability to continue to make progress on developing nuclear weapons.
...officials in Israel and the US have been increasingly at odds on how to dealwith Iran, which both - along with other Western nations and Gulf Arab states - say is seeking nuclear weapons.
Israeli officials are said to favor a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities saying the window for decisive action is closing as Iran "enters the immunity zone."
The Obama administration insists sanctions are having the desired effect and need more time.
However, senior Israeli officials in private conversations have expressed the belief that the White House desperately wants to avoid a spike in oil prices a strike might cause as the presidential elections looms on its political horizon.
While Western capitals are primarily concerned with the economic impact a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities may have, officials in Jerusalem are primarily concerned with the potential impact of not attacking.
Iranian officials have repeatedly called for the Jewish state's destruction and have referred to Israel as a "one bomb state."
In Jerusalem, an Iranian nuclear weapon is an existential risk leaders have said they don't believe Israel can afford.
Following failed efforts to argue and persuade, the Americans seem to be taking a new approach – trying to undermine Israel’s confidence in its military capabilities.
A report in The New York Times on Monday was aimed at doing just that – showing Israel how difficult a strike would be and explaining that if possible regional fallout is not enough of a deterrent against attacking Iran, a military failure should be.
Despite its confident saber-rattling, Israel's concern is growing that the country is vulnerable to a devastating counterstrike if it attacks Iran's nuclear program."The whole of Israel (is vulnerable to) tens of thousands of missiles and rockets from neighboring countries. So of course we need to understand the change of paradigm," he continued. "If there is a war, and I hope there isn't a war, they are not just going to hit Israeli soldiers. The main aim is at civilian populations."
The truth is, no one knows for sure just how far advanced Iran’s nuclear weapons program is. There are sound reasons for doubting Washington’s official estimates that Iran does not yet have the bomb or the ability to make a nuclear strike on the United States.Privately, the Obama administration may recognize that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is already irreversible but may not want to acknowledge publicly what would amount to a colossal national security failure. In June 2010, the White House National Security staff began quietly circulating to state emergency planners a manual titled “Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation.” It encourages first responders in major cities to prepare for a terrorist nuclear attack. An estimated 200,000 Americans could die from a small nuclear weapon detonated in a major city.
Western powers have for years made grand pronouncements regarding their commitment to Israel's security in the face of the Iranian nuclear threat. But now that Iran is drawing so close to being able to field a nuclear weapon, America and Europe appear to be backing off and leaving Israel to the wolves.With the situation clearly reaching a critical junction, talk of the possible need to launch a preemptive strike has reached fever pitch in Israel. The consternation of Israelis has been further exacerbated by recent calls from within Iran's religious leadership to attack and destroy Israel no later than 2014.In a document published by Iran's Alef news agency, the chief strategist of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Alireza Forghani, argued that "in the name of Allah, Iran must attack Israel by 2014. All our troubles are due to Israel!"And it is precisely at this moment that the US, Britain and other European powers are showing themselves most apathetic and incapable of facing down the Iranian threat.
Iran would take preemptive action against its enemies if it felt its national interests were endangered, the deputy head of the Islamic Republic's armed forces was quoted by a semi-official news agency as saying on Tuesday.
"Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran's national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions," Mohammad Hejazi told Fars news agency.
Interesting that the person who posted a comment about the earthquake in the second link says, "Woke up to my china cabinet rattling and a moan like noise I could hear." Are "moan like noises" typical with earthquakes? Any Californians in our little family here?
I skimmed the last article you posted, Scott - "Are We in the Midst of WWIII?" It says Glenn met with several world leaders and they may very well start a Global Tea Party. I had to chuckle... Really, Glenn? Yet another "Global" group? Perhaps it will be led by 10 kings and out of it will come the AC!!! ;)
Time for my second cup of coffee...
Scott, what do you think about the temple mount report, Muslims reporting that Israel is going to make them share the temple mount like they do the patriarchs tomb at Hebron
Do you have a link to that report Jill ?
I have been following the Temple Mount reports for a while and the various Temple mount groups have seen making items and developing plans for this for quite a while.
I was shocked to hear about the stoning of tourist there the other day, did you also here about the rebuilding of the access bridge to make it big enough for Israeli riot jeeps etc ?
This may not be what you are asking, but I believe during the Tribulation, the Temple will be built beside the DOTR. This is based on scriptures in Ezekiel and the fact that the "outer court" won't be part of this Temple and where (I believe) the Holy of Holies actually stood, which is in line with the East Gate. Asher Kaufman has done some amazing work here./
FWIW - when the muslims built the DOTR - it was obviously put where it was in order to have built over the original Temple site, but I (and many others) believe that they got it wrong. The only other outcropping of rock is under the cupola on what is now an empty spot (where the future temple will presumably go) - lining up directly with the entrance to the HOH. Its really a fascinating study and If I have time I'll find a couple of links
Alice, yes, a groaning noise is typical of earthquakes. I grew up in California.
Scott, what does DOTR stand for?
DOTR: Dome of the Rock (its ok, I make up my own abbreviations :)
Yes, indeed, UP again....
up another 16, at a new high...
AS LONG AS this continues, that is,
the BULLING, I have to assume that
the END is a ways off...
yet, one must wonder, why would
Israel WAIT 2 YEARS until 2014 to
see if Iran will nuke them ??
That's a joke.
IF I WERE Netanyahu, I would attack
them in the next 48 hours, really.
in 2 years, Iran may have 20 or more nukes, easy....maybe 30.
PLEASE READ THIS SCOTT >>>
ANOTHER REALLY GOOD ONE
In response to the groaning sound during earthquakes....
I've never heard it. The only sounds I have experienced
are the sounds of rattling and shaking, BUT these are
overpowered by the movement of everything. It gives
one nausea and vertigo. Btw... I'm a native Californian.
here is the link at the temple institute.org, it was on the arutz 7 site this AM then it was taken down right after I wrote that entry. they think it is propaganda devised by the muslims to get the muslim anger peaked and then they will continue to threaten tourists. not sure but it really caught my eye this morning...... M-A-R-A-N-A-T-H-A!
I can attest to very loud rattling noises during an earthquake.
I was on a military reservation with 4 naval nuclear reactors going when a 7.2 hit in Idaho. Lots of rattling...loud rattling...and it stayed that way til my knees stopped banging each other.
Thats a pretty sobering article isn't it? I have also wondered if they have had it for a while....I think one way or the other, we're going to know soon
I saw that article. You might find this interesting:
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