Analysis: IDF worried border protests just beginning
On Sunday, it was 1,000 Syrians who marched on the border with Israel. Next week, it could be 10,000 Palestinians from the Gaza Strip who will march toward the Negev, or Palestinian refugees in Jordan who march toward the Jordan Valley.The successful infiltration on Sunday by a group of just under 100 Syrians into the Druse village of Majdal Shams on the Golan is being viewed by the IDF as just the beginning.
As demonstrations like these gain momentum ahead of the planned declaration of statehood by the Palestinians in September, this type of protest could become a common occurrence along Israel’s various borders.
On Sunday, the IDF dealt with four simultaneous fronts – Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. While all expectations were for extreme violence in the West Bank – units that were training on the Golan Heights were transferred as reinforcements to the West Bank last week.
There is also concern in the IDF that global Jihad groups which operate in Syria will take advantage of the lawlessness on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights – made clear by the demonstrators’ ability to cross into Israel without being stopped by the Syrian military – to attack Israel. Some of these groups are believed to have an arsenal of short-range Katyusha rockets that could be used to fire into Israel.
Defense Minister: Border infiltrations are just the beginning
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Sunday that Israel Defense Forces soldiers succeeded in defending Israel's sovereignty when Palestinian refugee demonstrators breached the border with Syria and attempted to cross the border with Lebanon.
Barak cautioned, however, that Israel will in the future have to deal with similar and perhaps more complex incidents.
Nasrallah lauds 'Nakba Day' protesters
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah extolled the rights of Palestinians to return to their land in Israel and said he believes it will happen soon, the Lebanese Naharnet reported.
"We must praise the courage and faith of all those who protested yesterday on the Lebanese and Syrian borders with occupied Palestine as well as within Palestine, those who stood with bared chests and heads high before the tyranny of the enemy army," the website quotes him as saying.
Nasrallah said the Palestinians living in Syria and Lebanon would not settle for "an alternate homeland" and that they would "dedicate all blood, souls, and physical sacrifice" to return to their lands.
"Palestinian" Nakba Riots: Pawns and Politics
The most media interest has come from the waves of “Palestinian refugees” – people born in the last 30 years inside Lebanon and Syria, whom those nations, like Jordan, have declined to accept as citizens – who “protested” the Nakba by storming the fence along Israel’s northern border.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) showed up to control the surge toward the border from southern Lebanon, but Syrian authorities made no attempt to intercept the demonstrators heading for the fence from their territory, and appear instead to have enabled their activities.
Brigadier General Yoav Mordechai of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) indicated Israeli authorities had expected the Syrians to prevent demonstrators on their side from getting out of hand. The Israeli expectation, based on prior experience, was that the Syrians would not even allow most of the protesters to get near the border. But many of them were permitted to walk to the border area where the fence was breached on the morning of 15 May – some all the way from the outskirts of Damascus, a distance of up to 40 miles. Others were shuttled to the border in buses, an obvious indication of complicity by the Syrian regime.
Analysis: The writing was on the wall
For years, I have been hearing of plans by Palestinian refugees in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria to march en masse toward the Israeli border, under the watchful, headline-making eye of the international media – especially the Arab media. Israel would never dare shoot the marchers, it was reasoned, especially if they walked unarmed and showed no violence.
I wrote and spoke about these plans in Israeli media outlets.
Recently, a few things changed in the Arab milieu, and we saw the consequences on Sunday.
And below, we see what is newly developing in and around Israel, and we now may be seeing a new form of "protest":
First and foremost is the development of a “Yes, we can” sentiment – the belief that unarmed masses can overcome and defeat dictators. The “exposed body” protest is the new nonconventional weapon of frustrated, unemployed young people, a weapon against which the regime is expected to be helpless. Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis and Syrians use and have used this weapon against their rulers; now the Palestinians have adopted it for use against Israel..
The second development is Facebook and Twitter, means by which a public can organize despite the regime’s efforts to stifle it, and where leaders can mobilize a rebellion without the danger of revealing their real names
This next item, #3 is key and worth remembering:
The third change is the involvement of the Syrian and Lebanese regimes in events, since bus upon bus of disgruntled Palestinians could not have reached the border with Israel on Sunday without those governments’ knowledge and consent. The regimes’ cooperation stems from their effort to export their internal problems to Israel, and turn TV cameras away from what happens in Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip to Israel and its actions against the Arabs.
In fact, this (above) could be the key to unlocking what we may expect in the near future. This couples with #4:
The fourth fresh element is the link between Syria, Lebanon and Gaza – the Iranian link. These three arenas are all under the influence of the ayatollahs, and there is no better date on which to blame Israel for the mess in the Middle East than May 15, the notorious “Nakba.”
And this:
But we must not overlook the Israeli factor, which has an important role: In past years, Arab players have seen and heard that Israel concedes whenever it is subject to external pressure. The Likud, which historically was strongly opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state, is today willing to accept one. A unified Jerusalem, an Israeli consensus for years, is today on the verge of division. Even the return of refugees – once considered anathema across the political spectrum – is contemplated, at least to a limited extent, by some politicians on the left.
And when Israel’s enemies see it compromising its core “principles” under external pressure, and realize its “red lines” are at most pale pink, hope rises that further pressure will be rewarded with further concessions; strong pressure from the refugees, for instance, will bring war-weary Israelis to give up on that point, too.
Sunday’s events are not the last word. The dynamic in the Middle East is one of escalation and enhancement. Every person killed today is the martyr of tomorrow’s funeral, the funeral itself becoming a violent protest and its victims, in turn, the next day’s martyrs. Israel must thus be resolute on the one hand, but restrained and measured on the other, since a rising death toll will only exacerbate the situation.
Israel is in an impossible situation as shown above.
The bottom line on these recent developments is the fact that we can now expect more of the same in terms of the violence and protests seen this weekend. At least until September, when the UN is expected to take a general assembly vote for a "PA State" - and quite possibly a Security Council vote as well. At that point, "all bets are off" as they say.
The next few months are going to be very interesting for a prophecy watcher - that much is a guarantee.
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