Iran is in a panic because its “masterpiece,” Hezbollah, has collapsed. If Hassan Nasrallah had not been killed, high-ranking Iranian officials believe he would have had to be removed from office. The Sunnis are gaining strength and are opposing the Shiite axis. Iran is under pressure because the Syrian region is in danger.
Russia and the USA are regaining their dominance in the region, which indicates a possible reversal of previous developments. At the same time, an extremely dramatic development can be observed in Syria: even in the worst days of the civil war, the situation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was not as precarious as it is todayThe rebels are drawing strength from the defeat of the Shiite axis in Lebanon at the hands of Israel, and are conquering more and more areas in Syria. They have even taken control of the important city of Hama, where they are freeing prisoners. The Syrian army is collapsing.
Assad is desperately seeking support from Iran, but Iran is holding back – both out of fear of escalation and because of Israel’s intervention: Israel has already intercepted Iranian planes that were trying to reach Syria twice, most recently yesterday. Russia is also refusing to give Assad much-needed help.
Given the growing pressure, the question arises: Could Assad turn away from the Shiite axis? What concrete steps would be necessary for Israel, Russia, and the US to persuade him to make such a U-turn?
The impact of Israel’s successes against Hezbollah and Iran is immense. The latest developments in the Syrian civil war, in particular the rapid advance of the rebels, are presenting Israel with a number of complex strategic dilemmas. On the one hand, the deterioration of the situation in its northern neighbor poses significant security risks; on the other hand, it opens up unique opportunities to influence the regional balance of power.
Israel faces three main threats:
- Sophisticated weapons in enemy hands: The possibility of missiles, rocket systems, or even chemical weapons falling into the hands of jihadist forces poses an imminent threat to Israel’s security. The al-Safira area southeast of Aleppo, a center for the production of missiles and non-conventional weapons systems with Iranian support, is in the rebels’ sights. According to foreign reports, Israel is operating militarily in the area to prevent the possible use of such weapons against itself.
- Iranian presence in Syria: The Assad regime’s growing weakness increases its dependence on Iranian support and Shiite militias, including the Revolutionary Guard-backed Fatemiyoun Brigade. These fighters could establish themselves on Israel’s northern border and use Syria as a base for missile attacks or ground offensives.
- Collapse of the Assad regime: A complete collapse of the Assad regime could turn Syria into a failed state like Yemen or Libya, with Sunni and Shiite jihadist forces fighting each other. This scenario would pose an immediate threat to communities in the Golan Heights and Galilee, forcing Israel to provide physical protection and launch preemptive strikes.
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