Has Israel repeated the mistake of 2006 with its ceasefire?

Has Israel repeated the mistake of 2006 with its ceasefire?

Mitchell Bard

The 2006 Israel-Lebanon war mirrored the current war in Gaza in terms of the US and international reaction to the civilian casualties and displacement of large numbers of people. Like President Joe Biden, President George W. Bush initially opposed a ceasefire. “He believes that the Israelis have a right to protect themselves,” Bush spokesman Tony Snow said, “and also that we think it’s important that in doing that they try to limit as much as possible so-called collateral damage, not only to facilities but also to human lives.” Snow added, “The president is not going to make military decisions for Israel.”

A month later, however, the president changed his tune. He was angered by what he saw as Israeli indifference to the death toll and international opinion. As today, he feared that the war could escalate and alienate America’s Arab allies. Another concern was that Hezbollah would gain influence because Israel could not achieve a decisive military victory.

The new ceasefire agreement calls for the deployment of 10,000 Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to the southern border, in addition to the UNIFIL force that has consistently failed to be “robust” over the past 18 years.

“An international force requires international commitment,” Bush said and promised to assist “with logistic support, command and control, communications and intelligence.”

The world watched from 2006 until the day the ceasefire was signed and did nothing. The official acknowledged that UNIFIL failed in its mission to enforce the ceasefire and yet UNIFIL will be expected to enforce the new agreement. In both a nod to political reality and an unwillingness to literally put skin in the game, no U.S. combat troops will participate.

Biden said “this deal supports Lebanon’s sovereignty and so it heralds the new start for Lebanon” that “can put Lebanon on a path toward a future that’s worthy of a significant past.”

Is there any reason to believe the outcome will differ from when Bush said the same thing?

The new ceasefire agreement reiterates Resolution 1701’s requirement for the “disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon” but does not require the LAF to take any action against Hezbollah troops deployed north of the Litani River. It only requires the prevention of future smuggling of weapons into Lebanon. Only Hezbollah installations south of the river are mentioned for dismantling.

So why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agree to the ceasefire?

Israel asserts while the US denies that the Biden administration threatened to block further weapons deliveries and would not veto another UN ceasefire resolution. Just a week earlier, Netanyahu had boasted of repeatedly defying Biden; however, this time, he acknowledged that Israel needed its weapons resupplied. After agreeing to the ceasefire, Netanyahu said the issue was resolved, and the administration subsequently announced a $680 million arms sale to replenish precision weapons depleted during the war.

There should have never been any doubt that the war in Lebanon would end on Biden’s terms. As I wrote last November, presidents, and not prime ministers, end Israeli wars. Netanyahu capitulated but, predictably, claimed victory even though Hezbollah was not destroyed (a tiny fraction of its forces was killed), it continues to exert influence over the country, and Iran can quickly rebuild it.

Israel does derive short-term benefits: saving the lives of soldiers, the acceleration of US weapons deliveries, the opportunity to focus on Iran and finish off Hamas, and getting a desperately needed respite for reservists. It is not clear, however, that the ceasefire achieved the war’s objective of allowing the residents of the north to return to their homes, given that Hezbollah was firing more than 100 rockets a day before the ceasefire and could do so again at any time.

Israel has a better claim to victory in the south. The IDF has killed most Hamas terrorists, and the survivors are no longer firing rockets. As in the north, however, the American president will determine the outcome. President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants the war to end before he is inaugurated. There will be a heavy price, but Netanyahu will likely comply to avoid Trump’s wrath.

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