On Friday, Putin met with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan to discuss the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and the probability of a regional war. The carefully choreographed meeting was intended to show that Russia regards Iran as both a friend and ally who can depend on Russia’s support if hostilities break out. Hours earlier, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued an ominous warning that an Israeli strike on Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities would constitute a “serious provocation.”
Speaking at a news conference in Laos, Lavrov emphasized that—according to the International Atomic Energy Agency—Iran has remained compliant with current regulations and has not diverted any nuclear material to banned weapons programs. (Israel’s spurious claims on this matter are pure propaganda.)
If any plans or threats to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities are realized, it would indeed be a very serious provocation.
Between Lavrov’s comments and Putin’s meeting, there’s little doubt that Moscow supports Iran in its clash with Israel although it is not possible to know whether Russia will actively intervene if war breaks out. (We should also remember that Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Tehran just two days before Iran launched its ballistic missile attack on Israel. This suggests that Iran got the green light from Moscow to take action that corresponds with Putin’s idea of a “proportionate response.”)
The point we’re making, is that Russia is following developments very closely and has moved military assets to within range of the prospective battlespace. It is logical to assume that Russia will engage Iran’s enemies if that is what the situation requires. Military analyst Will Schryver summed it up like this:
Keep in mind, Russia and Iran have significantly strengthened their military ties over the last few years to the point they are openly committed to each other’s security. Here’s Schryver again:
Russia, China, and Iran have now formed a de facto military and economic alliance — what they prefer to call a “partnership”. In the case of Russia and China, a comprehensive full-spectrum partnership has emerged: military, economic, and monetary….
Russia, China, and Iran conduct regular joint exercises in the Arabian Sea. Those exercises have increased in both scope and frequency in recent years.
Both Russia and China are investing vast sums of capital in Iran, much of it in the energy sector and in ambitious transportation projects aiming to construct fast and efficient trade corridors linking China, Iran, and Russia as primary nodes of Eurasian commerce…Arms and technology transfers between the three countries have reached unprecedented levels….
It is increasingly evident that Russia, China, and Iran recognize that an attack against any one of them would constitute an existential threat to them all. The strategic interests of all three countries are now inextricably intertwined. Most importantly, they are united in a single overriding strategic objective: to dismantle the dominion of the long-reigning Anglo-American empire….In a putative war between the United States and Iran, both Russia and China would actively support Iran… Iran would simply be supplemented with arms and other logistical necessities from both its partners — and quite possibly taken under their nuclear umbrella in an explicit act of deterrence.
Schryver’s view is shared by a great many analysts who (naturally) are banned from sharing their opinions in the major media. But that doesn’t change the underlying fact that Russia and Iran are strategic allies that will intervene militarily if they find themselves in peril.
Russia’s president has authorized the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran. This follows a Tehran visit by the secretary of the Russian Security Council, preceded by a trip to St. Petersburg by the Iranian national security advisor…. Putin …. reportedly describing it as “expedient” and to be signed “at the highest level.“…
According to Iranian media, Putin hailed the “strategic” relations between Tehran and Moscow, which he said had grown stronger in recent years…. Relations between Moscow and Tehran have deepened considerably since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.
Cooperation between the two countries has become particularly pronounced in the military domain. Iran has supplied drones to Russia, which have reportedly been deployed against Ukraine. Additionally, Iran is believed to be supporting Russia’s efforts to localize drone production….
“Relations with Iran are a priority for us,” Putin told Pezeshkian...
Reports also emerged in August about alleged Russian arms shipments being delivered to Iran. The New York Times cited Iranian officials at the time as saying that Russia had begun to transfer advanced radar and air defense equipment to Tehran following a request made to the Kremlin. Persian Fire, Dr Digby James Wren, Substack
In other words, Putin anticipated the crisis that is unfolding today and began vigorously shoring up Iran’s defenses. Now, they are ready to go. Check it out:
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in the Middle East and… set tasks that could only be discussed face to face. …. We will monitor the development of events; the army is combat ready, (and) the initiative is on our side… Victory will be ours, maybe not quickly, but we will definitely win. ⁃ Andrey Gurulev, Russian Lieutenant General @DD_Geopolitics
What we should expect now, is an Israeli attack on Iran’s vital infrastructure amplified by a decapitation operation aimed at its political and military leaders. The attack will have to exceed what US advisors have suggested in order to increase the chances of an exaggerated retaliation from Iran that will prompt Washington’s entry into the war. (which is Israel’s main objective) Iran’s response will be shaped in part by Russia who will emphasize a ‘proportionate response’. Putin will give Israel and the United States every opportunity to ‘lower the temperature’ and deescalate, but if they decide to intensify their attacks, we should expect the worst-case scenario.
There’s no way the United States comes out of a war with Iran unscathed. These are momentous times in which the cornerstone upon which the old order rests, is disintegrating before our eyes.
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