Whatifalthist, a young commentator is one of the best geopolitics commentators out there today. He has publicly said he thinks this election cycle will result in a US Civil War, most likely this year… But very likely in the fallout years, same way the election of Abraham Lincoln in Nov 1860 took until April of 1861 for Fort Sumter to be fired upon.
I’m not as aggressive as Whatifalthist, I think there’s a lot of scenarios where a major regional war in the Middle-East occurs, or WW3 begins with Russia (we’ve gotten very close to Nuke launches during the war with Ukraine) as factions in the deep state push for an October surprise if they think Trump might win.
Likewise I think there’s numerous ways where a crisis could happen that results in a minor war or last minute corrupt compromise that lets America limp on to 2028? Maybe 2032?
So a lot of crazy stuff can happen between even a great war or a Trump assassination and civil war… or We could go zero to civil war in 6 months like in 1860-61… it wouldn’t be the states doing it, but if something suddenly motivated 0.01% of armed Americans to each kill 1 government/or rival political group’s official or burn down 1 government or rival political group’s building in a six month period… That alone would cause a breakdown in government authority across the country and probably a massive streisand effect whereby partisan actors are pressured to condemn and demand insane policies or police responses as a result, and then the “pre-mature” rebellion against tyranny or “tyranny” creates the unambiguous Tyranny that justifies the rebellion and allows the early rebels to start recruiting and conscripting to their movement.
Repeat that on both sides with enough rounds fired and bombs detonated, and you have northern Ireland or South Vietnam… but in a country with more guns than people.
However I want to emphasize: a US civil war is virtually inevitable in the next 10 years… no matter what is done at the federal level or who gains the reigns… The US government’s budgetary situation, the insane and death spiraling levels of dependence on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans benefits, Welfare, Public housing, and food stamps, and the declining US Geopolitical situation and its impact on the world dollar demand (look up “petrodollar”) ensures that the inevitable budget crisis will immediately be felt either in hyper-inflation, hyper-taxation (Read: property confiscation. why do you think they’re pushing “unrealized capital gains”? they’re preparing to take your retirement fund and house in a budget crisis), and cut spending resulting in loss of service, rioting, and collapse.
BUT that is not what this piece is about… A Second US civil war would be an event bigger than world war 2. Civil Conflicts would almost immediately spill over into Europe, Canada, the Cartels would get involved from Mexico, the Migrant madness would take on a newer more insane dimension (as one or the other faction tries, and probably fails to employ the dregs of the third world against their rivals) any impact on global supply chains would probably cause mass famines and apocalyptic wars throughout Africa, the Middle-East, and Southeast Asia.
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