Defense, Diversity, and the China Threat
William Kilpatrick
Teddy Roosevelt said that when dealing with hostile foreign powers one should “speak softly and carry a big stick.” In other words, don’t provoke your enemies, but let them know that you possess sufficient fire power and personnel to handle any situation that may arise.
Roosevelt decidedly did not say, “shout loudly and carry a small twig.” But there is a danger that some people, both in and out of government, may fall into the trap of thinking that tough talk by itself is a sufficient response.
Of course, I exaggerate when I use the term “a small twig.” The U.S. still possesses a formidable military. But there is evidence that, in comparison to China, it is no longer as formidable as it once was.
An article on missile defense systems in the March issue of National Defense outlines the problem. It points out that in 2020, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) began fielding hypersonic weapon systems “with a high level of maneuverability” that makes it difficult for traditional missiles to defend against them.
Moreover, the PLA strategy “focuses on using offensive strikes to gain a military advantage at the beginning of a conflict.” According to Timothy Walton, a fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, “they [the PLA] talk about conducting preventative attacks…and preemptive attacks of various kinds.”
What does that mean? The answer, in two words, is “Pearl Harbor.” More precisely, it means simultaneous surprise attacks on multiple targets.
As Walton puts it, “On the whole, the current U.S. air-and-missile defense capabilities are relatively brittle. It’s an architecture that I think could be relatively easily neutralized or paralyzed by an adversary like China.”
Hmm. When the Chines first started making noises about Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, much was made about the fact that a carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan was headed to the South China Sea.
I did some quick research and found conflicting views. Some sites said that modern carriers are practically unsinkable. A 2019 Forbes article gave “Ten reasons a U.S Navy aircraft carrier is one of the safest places to be in a war.” On the other hand, an article in The National Interest suggested that aircraft carriers are obsolete and outdated. The National Defense article suggested the same thing. Dr. Mark Lewis, executive director of the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies Institute is quoted as saying: “Imagine a hypersonic missile swarm that can sink an aircraft carrier — that’s really quite a capability.”
It’s not really unimaginable, of course, that an aircraft carrier can be sunk. Aircraft carriers, battleships, and cruisers — American, British, German and Japanese — were sunk on a regular basis during World War II. Sometimes a single plane carrying a torpedo could sink or disable a giant ship. And let’s not forget that only four months ago, the guided missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea fleet, was sunk by two Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.
The fact that warships are now equipped with defensive capabilities that didn’t exist during the Second World War is offset by the fact that our enemies are now equipped with offensive capabilities that far exceed those of that era. Moreover, according to the National Defense piece, some of the counter-missile systems that we need “might not be available until 2030.”
In short, “big-stick” diplomacy doesn’t work if you don’t have the big stick.
But military power is not measured solely by advanced weaponry. The quantity and quality of personnel is also essential. Does the United States have enough troops to fight a war? Are they well-trained and well-motivated?
The evidence is not reassuring.
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