Rumors Of War: U.S. Carrier Strike Group Heads Towards Taiwan - Will A War Be Sparked Between China And U.S.?

US carrier strike group may be heading towards Taiwan – monitor

RT

A US strike group, headed by aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, may possibly be approaching Taiwanese waters, the Chinese semi-official monitoring group South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) reported on Monday.

This comes during the Asian tour by the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who made her first stop in Singapore earlier in the day. Media reports have earlier claimed that Pelosi could make an unannounced visit to the self-governed island of Taiwan as part of her tour. China had described the alleged plan as highly provocative and threatened the US with “unbearable consequences” if she decides to visit the island.

According to SCSPI, the strike group, consisting of the Ronald Reagan, two other Navy ships and Carrier Air Wing Five, consisting of F/A-18 fighters, helicopters and a surveillance aircraft, may currently be located some 800 kilometers from Taiwan’s south-eastern shores. 

It bypassed the Luzon, the main island in the Philippines and kept heading north towards Taiwan, the monitor group said.

Last week, unnamed American officials told AP that the US military has been working on a “contingency plan” for its forces in the Pacific region to create “overlapping rings of protection” for the speaker during her possible flight to Taiwan and her stay there due to the possibility of incidents relating to China’s actions. 

AP also noted that the US had enough forces spread around the Pacific region, and the Pentagon might eventually use them for additional protection during the alleged trip. The news agency specifically named the US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group.

Could Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan spark a war between China and the US?

RT

In recent years, the US has unilaterally withdrawn from security agreements with its main adversaries, which has set in motion an uncontrolled escalation. It has put the Americans on a path to war with countries such as Russia and Iran, and Washington is now also taking steps towards an accidental war with China by incrementally abandoning the One China Policy. Beijing is now warning of an unprecedented military response if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on her planned trip to Taiwan.

The US and China established full diplomatic relations in the 1970s, as Washington switched its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Washington committed itself to the One China Policy, which stipulates there is only one China, and Taiwan is a part of it. However, the US is concurrently strengthening Taiwan’s ability to act as an independent state, by providing weapons.

The One China Policy and the policy of strategic ambiguity

The US and China established full diplomatic relations in the 1970s, as Washington switched its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Washington committed itself to the One China Policy, which stipulates there is only one China, and Taiwan is a part of it. However, the US is concurrently strengthening Taiwan’s ability to act as an independent state, by providing weapons.

Thus, for the past four decades, peace between the US and China has been based on strategic ambiguity over the status of Taiwan.

Throughout that time, the US and China have been engaged in a “deterrence dilemma.” Washington has strived to prevent Beijing from forcefully reunifying with Taiwan, by supplying the island with arms, while China makes Taiwan think twice about formally seceding, by threatening military intervention. As Beijing has grown stronger, American efforts to prevent China from using its army are instead provoking it to intervene.

In the past, the US was reckless in managing the One China Policy, but in recent years Washington has begun to deliberately hollow out the policy. The rise of Beijing threatens the US security strategy based on global primacy, and there is no willingness in Washington to accommodate a multipolar order. Time appears to be on China’s side as its influence in the region will only increase. In contrast, America’s power is declining, which creates incentives for changing its posture towards China, and the Taiwan issue.

Beijing sees the continued effort to hollow out the One China Policy in the wider context of US reluctance to adapt to the multipolar world, and thus settle relations with the other great powers.

Towards accidental war

Beijing has warned of the most severe consequences if Pelosi follows through with her threat to visit Taiwan. This leads many to believe that Beijing is merely bluffing, as risking a war with the US over a trip by a Washington official does not appear proportionate or rational.

However, the nature of salami tactics is to portray all responses as disproportionate and irrational. They entail limited but repetitive advancements to create new realities on the ground. Revisionism in small steps is designed to avoid rapid escalation and eliminate opposition from adversaries and allies, as any response can be portrayed as disproportionate or unprovoked. The political dishonesty of salami tactics is how accidental war starts.