Vietnam has 49 bases in the South China Sea claimed by China, and of course, they were there a long time before the Chinese arrived. The continued existence of the Vietnamese bases makes a mockery of China’s claim to the South China Sea, and so they must be eliminated. To that end China is likely to perform a rerun of its 1989 invasion of Vietnam and force Vietnam to give up its South China Sea bases in return for peace. If successful, China would then go on to make demands of other countries and this would be the major turning point in modern history.
An informal group of four countries known as the Quad -- India, Japan, the United States, and Australia -- are the front line against China. Plus Vietnam which has precluded itself from having foreign military bases on its soil, though American contractors have been seen near Da Nang. The Quad is much bigger and more powerful than China. Only a little needs to be done to prevail against China, but it is necessary for that little to be done.
China has already done plenty of nasty things so far this year, not least of which was the escape of one of their bioweapons, killing more than 400,000 non-Chinese. But they are also intentionally torching their diplomatic relationships with the wider world. Even Sweden has had enough and closed all the Confucius Institutes in that country. So why do that? When regimes run out of legitimacy, their last resort is to start a war. Increased belligerence is necessary to sell war as the solution.
There is a rumor that China has moved two to four divisions to the border with Vietnam, of which one or more is armored. China has announced that it will be conducting amphibious landing drills in the South China Sea this summer, which may be the cover for a surprise attack on Vietnam’s 49 bases.
It is time for the Department of Defense to update Know Your Enemy: Japan for this century’s main villain. Most of the scripting from the original can be retained for the new production, and one line can be used unaltered: “Defeating this nation is as necessary as shooting a mad dog in your neighborhood.”
It is also not too early to start imagining what the peace settlement with China will look like. With respect to the South China Sea, Vietnam would have the Paracel Islands returned to it. In the Spratly Islands, China has three big bases – Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs, each with a 8,500 foot runway and a large anchorage, and four smaller bases. The best way to divvy them up for a permanent anti-China grouping would be:
Vietnam Fiery Cross ReefCuateron ReefJapan Subi ReefGaven ReefUnited States Mischief ReefHughes ReefJohnson South Reef
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