“Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say to Gog: ‘This is what the Sovereign Lord says: In that day, when my people Israel are living in safety, will you not take notice of it? You will come from your place in the far north, you and many nations with you, all of them riding on horses, a great horde, a mighty army. You will advance against my people Israel like a cloud that covers the land. In days to come, Gog, I will bring you against my land, so that the nations may know me when I am proved holy through you before their eyes.
(Ezekiel 38)
On 28-30 January, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held its 13th annual international conference entitled "Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade." INSS researcher, Retired Brig. General Dr Meir Elran, has shed light on Israel's strategic goals and outlined Israel's vision of Russia's role in the Middle East.
"War Games in the North" came as part of the INSS annual conference in the Smolarz Auditorium at Tel Aviv University with Israeli, American and Russian participants discussing various scenarios of a potential development of a conflict in the Middle East, involving Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran and global players – the United States and Russia.
The participants in the military simulation came to the conclusion that all of the actors of the hypothetical conflict - in which Israel initiates attacks on Lebanon and Syria – would opt for de-escalation as no one is interested in an all-out war.
One might ask whether the discussion indicates that Israel is bracing for new conflict in the region given the US-Iran row over Quds Force commander's assassination and Tehran's subsequent retaliatory strike, as well as Trump's "deal of the century" that has already reverberated through the Arab world.
Dr Elran notes that currently the situation in Syria does not correspond to the basic interests of Israel given the presence of Iranians and their proxies in the region, in close proximity to Israel's northern border.
According to the Israelis, Tehran has used the war in Syria to create a land corridor from Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria thus shortening the time and range for attacks on Israel. Tehran vehemently denies any military buildup in the region saying that it has provided military consulting services to the Syrians at the request of Damascus as part of the international fight against Daesh (ISIS/ISIL)*.
"We are facing very serious threats mostly posed to us by the Iranians and their proxies", Dr Elran underscores. "The hostile environment between Israel and Iran is something that is causing different kinds of developments mostly presently in the Syrian arena or the arena north of Israel. We see an Iranian incursion, enhancement of their interests and their presence in Syria as very threatening. We don't like to see them as close as they are in Syria and this is a thing that would be or should be discussed and agreed upon by Israel and Russia because the relations between Russia and Iran is also a complex issue and I think the Russians have a major role to ensure that Iranians do not continue with their efforts to escalate the situation in Syria and Lebanon".
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