Thursday, September 27, 2012

PM Netanyahu Speaks: Defines Conditions For War

The first link contains interesting commentary and the speech itself:

So there we have it. The line has been determined:

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu drew an actual red line with a marker on a chart symbolizing Iran's uranium enrichment program, and expained that Iran must be told that if it reaches enough uranium enriched to the 90% level in order to make a nuclear bomb, it will be attacked. "3,000 years ago King David reigned over a Jewish state in our eternal capital of Jerusalem. The people of Israel live on. We say in Hebrew – Am Yisrael Chai. And the Jewish state will live forever," Netanyahu began his speech..

Netanyahu draws the line

"The Jewish people have lived in the land of Israel for thousands of years. The masses of our people never gave up the dream of returning to our homeland. Defying the laws of history we did just that."The Jewish people have come home. We will never be uprooted again.

"Yesterday was Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year. Every year for over three millennia, we have come together on this Day of Atonement. We remember the great travails of our dispersion. But at the end of Yom Kippur we celebrate the rebirth of Israel. We celebrate of the flourishing modern Jewish state. 

"The forces of Medievalism seek a world in which not life, but death is glorified. These forces clash throughout the globe, but nowhere more starkly than the Middle East. The Medieval forces of radical Islam whom you saw storming embassies in the Middle East – want to destroy freedom and end the modern world.

"They are all rooted in the same bitter soil of intolerance. That intolerance is directed to their own fellow Muslims as well as Jews, Hindus and Christians, anyone who refuses to relent to their creed. I am sure that ultimately they will fail. The relevant question is not whether this fanaticism will be defeated, but how many lives will be lost before it's defeated."Netanyahu referred to the Nazi regime, and noted that the world took too long to wake up to its danger. "My friends, we cannot let that happen again. At stake is the future of Iran. Imagine the world with a nuclear armed Al Qaeda.

"Given this record of Iranian aggression without nuclear weapons – just imagine Iranian aggression with nuclear weapons. Imagine their long range missiles tipped with nuclear warheads, their terror networks armed with atomic bombs. Who would be safe in the Middle East? Who would be safe in Europe?

"Ladies and gentlemen, I've been speaking about the need to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons for over 15 years. I spoke about it when it was fashionable and when it wasn't fashionable. The hour is getting late. Very late. When it comes to the survival of my country, it is not only my right to speak – it is my duty to speak. And I believe that this is the duty of every responsible leader who wants to preserve world peace."

Citing "the leadership of President Obama," Netanyahu noted that "For over seven years, the international community has placed sanctions on Iran. The Iranian economy has been hit hard. But we must face the truth. Sanctions have not stopped Iran's nuclear program either.
"A clear red line must be placed on Iran's nuclear weapons program. Red lines prevent war. President Kennedy set a red line during the Cuban missile crisis. It is the failure to place a red line that leads to aggression. Earlier this year, Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. The United States drew a red line and Iran backed off.

"To be credible, a red line must be drawn on Iran's efforts to enrich uranium," he said. Netanyahu explained that a nuclear detonator can be made in a small workshop. But for Iran, amassing enough enriched uranium requires thousands of centrifuges spinning in tandem – and this is done in large facilities that are vulnerable.Showing a diagram, Netanyahu explained: "Iran is well into the second stage and by next spring it will have moved on to the final stage. From then it's just a few months or weeks until they have enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb." He drew the red line at the 90% mark separating Stage 2 from Stage 3.

Don't forget, Netanyahu isn't saying that he will wait until spring to take action; he is simply saying that it cannot proceed beyond this "line". That seems to leave the door open to action at any time preceding that period. One aspect which is perplexing - is the fact that for months now Israel has told the world that the 'red line' (although not formally declared as a 'red line' - still, the essence was the same) was Iran's ability to move key components underground, which was said to be by the end of 2012. There was no mention of that today.

Debka believes that a deal has been cut with the U.S. This should be taken with a grain of salt, given that no other sources are giving these details:

Netanyahu Draws Israel's Red Line For Iran Amid Secret Discussion With U.S. On A Spring Attack

DEBKAfile quotes some Washington sources as disclosing that the White House and Israel emissaries have come to an understanding that Israel will hold back from attacking Iran’s nuclear sites before the US election in November, while a special team led set up by President Barack Obama completes a new paper setting out the end game for Iran.He put the team to work after concluding that negotiations with Iran had exhausted their usefulness and placed at its head Gary Samore, top presidential adviser on nuclear proliferation.

Netanyahu’s citing of late spring, early summer 2013, as the critical point on Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb appears to confirm that he has agreed to delay military action against Iran in negotiations with the White House. Our sources report that the prime minister was represented in those talks by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and National Security Adviser Yakov Amidror.

According to another view, which is current in Washington’s intelligence community, Israel was finally persuaded by fresh intelligence presented by the Obama administration which showed that Israeli estimates were overly pessimistic in judging the timeline for Iran’s nuclear facilities to be buried in “immunity zones.” That time line extended to spring 2013, leaving Israel five to six months up to April-May for ordering a military operation against those sites.However, we have learned, Israeli intelligence circles dispute their American colleagues’ estimate as “interesting” but inaccurate.  Netanyahu in his speech confirmed that Washington and Jerusalem were constantly exchanging views and evaluations on the state of Iran’s nuclear program.


hartdawg said...

If Netanyahu was persuaded by that monster in the oval office (out of respect for this blog i won't use the words that describe how i really feel about the traitorous, vile, godless, detestable wicked "president") anyway, if Netanyahu was persuaded NOT to defend Israel (some call it attack Iran but i call it defense) til after the elections and that monster wins the election then its over for the U.S. I'm hoping Netanyahu is being vague deliberately.

Scott said...


I know what you mean, (by the way, I thought I had posted this about 3-4 hours ago but for some reason it didn't get put up after I submitted it - real weird. I got back in, after having been gone, and it wasn't up yet.

I have a hard time thinking that NEtanyahu really cut a deal with the White House - in fact, how could he have cut a deal when he didn't even meet with Obama? Especially on something this important.

I think Debka is in that category of needing to verify with other sources. They quote a lot of "sources'. Its always interesting to read, but I do take Debka with a grain of salt.

It could also be mis-information.

Who knows. I;m still dismayed that the red line seems to have changed w Israel, but again, about half of what we see now is indeed misinformation,.

hartdawg said...

So scott....what you're saying is anything at this point (including a strike) possible? If so then i agree

Scott said...

I really do. Netanyahu seems too experienced to buy what the US is selling. But there is probably so much that we don't know, or information that we don't have access to. Having said that, I think he is giving the world the drop dead last possible date, not necessarily his date to attack

JD Siegel said...

Last possible point of no return for sure.
I agree he likely will NOT wait because of so many other factors at play, ie, Hezbullah, Syria, the possible fall of the King of Jordan to MB. Any of these loose cannon's could cause Bibi to act against THEM, thus giving Achmadi-Nejad the green light to act out his threat.

Waterer said...

I watched Netanyahu's speech with admiration for his clear explanation of what it takes to build this bomb.
But here is where I was confused.
He said they comp0leted stage one and are far along with stage two. Both of these are in reachable places that could be tsken out. But the last phase could be done a small room somewhere and take only a sort time for weeks to months. Also with this he said Iran is huge ( another said ,half the size of Europe)and this samll room could be anywher. ( unreachable.
So he drew a redline. I was so ready to see it. BUT why did he put it at the tope of stage twoi and not 1/3-1/4th of the way up stwge two, in the
reachable zone?
I was surprised he put the line at the end of stage two. What good would destrction of sites be then.
Any thoughts?

GG said...

Hi KR-

Some certain things came to mind to me as well and only God knows what the final and true answer is I guess :)

I took at as he presented his reasoning once again that he has been telling the masses for a while, almost like a review, hopefully a final review, and overall review, without compromising military secrets. IMHO to draw the specific red line would be revealing just that. Like he did stress it is online for all to see, so I am sure he would like other countries to do their due diligence as well.

I am thinking he is tired of talking and knows he will be standing alone. In think this man has great compassion, heart, integrity, and will go on with such. I am sure all ofnthis is very hard on him but being the great man of understanding he is, I am sure he knows to use the USA's so called grateful help, to ensure more Allies, in any form should things move forward. Even if the other nations will do as little as we are offering. It is almost like he knows it is all talk and no action and he is still saying thank you and playing a strategic move as well, knowing there isn't much he can truly count on. He can be hopeful, but he is a wise man.

IMHO he drew this line and we all should know something is coming soon. Since the time frames are so vague as stated above, it could be anytime or anywhere on that chart. :)

God Bless!


Waterer said...

Thanks GG.
When I heard later analysis of his speech on Fox, they made it sound like the mar equinox would be it.
I thought MARCH???
Technically it will be done by then.
Too late to track.
They are repeating headlines from JP saying the same timeline.
It does seem that he would wait to see if the white house changes hands..
I hope this question of Iran's nuke race comes up in the debates..

GG said...

Hi KR-

Yes, this is a good time for us to really watch what man's thinking vs God's word ultimately says.

To see the media back up secular views instead of biblical views only reminds us to pull out those bibles and keep on tracking with God and his word. I understand our human nature to pin point a specific day and time, but as God would have it that no-one knows the day or the hour for him, I have to think Bibi is of that mindset on his next moves :)

God Bless!!


Caver said...

Sis KR,

The reason Bibi didn't draw the line at 1/4th or 1/3rd is that those points were passed several years ago.

The hard process, the extreme time consuming process is over.

Its only the fast and easy steps remaining. That's the reason for the consternation these days.