Saturday, May 19, 2012

Surprise, Surprise: Iran Negotiations Bad For Israel

This would be less painful if it wasn't so painfully predictable:

Emerging U.S.-Iran Interim Nuclear Deal Endangers Israel

Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is entrusted with a decisive mission in Tehran Sunday, May 20: collecting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s broad endorsement of the interim eight-point deal he and US President Barack Obama have drafted through secret dialogue.

The details are still to be hammered out and proved practicable. But the way the deal stands now, it will be unacceptable to Israel because if affords Iran enough leeway to carry on developing a nuclear bomb program with no real hindrance.

The White House is waiting tensely for Khamenei’s nod to activate the link promised by Obama between their back-track talks and the formal negotiations the Six Powers (P5+1) negotiations with Iran, which go forward in Baghdad on May 23. This link would grant the bilateral US-Iranian deal UN-world power imprimatur and vindicate the US president’s contested Iran policy.

From that moment, Israel would find it doubly hard to go through with its military option against Iran’s nuclear sites without risk of international isolation and opprobrium.
As they say, "the devil is in the details":

It was this double game that made the US-Iranian dialogue workable.

From that moment, Israel would find it doubly hard to go through with its military option against Iran’s nuclear sites without risk of international isolation and opprobrium.
Until that moment, the Obama administration had found Israel’s threatening stance useful for bending Iran to a diplomatic accommodation on its nuclear plans, while at the same time holding Jerusalem back from actually going through with its threat.

It was also used adroitly by Khamenei to achieve another of the Islamic Republic’s key strategic goals, to destroy the abiding friendship between the US and the Zionist state. The Iranian leader’s main argument to his colleagues in support of his secret dealings with the US president was that sanctions were well worth enduring if at the end of the road a deal with the US forced a breach between Washington and Jerusalem and so substantially weakened the Jewish state.

1. Because the US and Iran agree that a real and comprehensive accord for halting Tehran’s nuclear program is unobtainable, they are accepting an interim agreement with each party at liberty to interpret its substance and future implementation in its own manner.
DEBKAfile: This wording allows Obama to assure the American voter and Western public that Tehran has capitulated on its nuclear ambitions while, at the same time, Khamenei portrays America to Iranians and Muslims as having yielded on recognizing Iran’s right to develop an independent nuclear program, enrich uranium and continue its drive for a bomb.

2. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment up to the near-weapons grade of 20 percent but not dismantle or stop work at the Fordo underground nuclear plant as Israel demands.

4. No ceiling will be placed on the production of low-enriched uranium of 3.5-5 percent purity.DEBKAfile: Washington tacitly grants this concession by leaving it off the record.

6. The secret Iranian nuclear sites of which Washington has no explicit knowledge will also be omitted from the record and therefore outside the sphere of international inspection.
Therefore, as a result of the above, the following points (which will be highly publicized by the MSM as a "victory" for the administration) are really moot and irrelevant:

3. Iran will export its stock of 110 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium which can be used for producing a weapon. This material will be reprocessed and returned as fuel plates from which it is much more difficult though not impossible to make a bomb.

5. Iran will sign the Non-Proliferation Accord’s additional protocol and so permit the expansion of IAEA on-site inspections.

Also see the last two points:

7. The US and European Union will dilute sanctions against Iran stage by stage. DEBKAfile: Here too, dual tactics will be used: The formal embargo on Iran’s central bank and its exclusion from the SWIFT international money transfer system will not be formally annulled. However a blind eye will be applied to any small banks in the West executing Iran’s international business, just as the sanction-busting measures used by China, Russia, India and Turkey to their trade with Iran, were tolerated.

8. The US and Europe will revoke the oil embargo due to go into effect on July 1, 2012.

DEBKAfile: While the Obama administration has given its “agreement-in-principle on the interim deal,” the Iranian leader has not yet endorsed it. Hence the Amano mission to Tehran Sunday.

If he comes away with a nod from Tehran, Obama will have achieved two key objectives: the world power talks with Iran can proceed through sessions spaced several weeks apart until the November date of the US presidential election, and Israel will be constrained from striking Iran before that date.

Last week, Israel reiterated its demand for Iran to stop uranium enrichment at any grade and dismantle the Fordo nuclear facility as non-negotiable.

The interim agreement drafted by Obama and Khamenei will therefore be unacceptable to Israel because it provides for neither and so affords Iran enough leeway to carry on developing a nuclear bomb program with no real hindrance.

Additionally, as a bonus to the U.S. administration - when Israel does go ahead with their plans to destroy Iran's nuclesar facilities, the U.S. administration can openly express dismay that Israel "attacked" Iran in the face of these "successful" negotiations, and the MSM is guaranteed to go along with this plan.

"I will bless those who bless you and whoever curses you I will curse"

(Genesis 12:3)


Anonymous said...

In reference to Isaiah 3.17, GG, I think we have to be careful that we look at the context.
The women who develop sores are the women of Zion, not Alaska or America.
They are women of Jerusalem!
Maybe their problem,too, will be caused by nuclear fallout.
Elizabeth DU

Ally said...

Hey Scott-look at this when you get a chance and let me know what you think. Utube the video is called "michael stands up, satan cast down" could she be on to something or not? Feel free to delete this. I know you and C's and a few others are real Breans and search the scriptures. Thanks! :)

Anonymous said...

I am beginning to wonder if Israel will NOW do something before 23 MAY 2012 ?? Is that possible ??

maybe, maybe not.


EWI wave counts are bearish. and
it is POSSIBLE to have a full blown
crash in a (1) down, but still not

Much time has been wasted in the last three plus years since the
bottom in March 2009 to pacify

and that is VERY DANGEROUS....
and foolish !!!!

I am NOT saying it will happen,
but current analysis of GS and
other financial concerns leads
one to MAKE A CASE that a real
crash could be VERY CLOSE.

Stephen >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Dave DU said...

G'day all,
Please be encouraged;
"you can stand in the day of evil only if you know the One who is greater than evil itself".


GG said...

Hi Elizabeth~

I do appreciate the reply and I do agree we need to watch the context very carefully :) I am looking at the context that surrounds that scripture as well as the possible link to Asia, Cyprus,etc. With our travel group for adoptions in China, all our travelers must pass through Alaska to Asia and vice versa. That among other things is why I wondered if it was the past or present and how, if it does in any aspect pertain to the last days.

I hope your having a delightful day DU.


Anonymous said...

Hi Alley, I watched the video you posted for Scott to look at. I just wanted to say that we all need to be very careful not to get coaught up in things that tickle our ears so to speak and make sure these things are biblical. The video was very interesting but I just thought you should know that this same lady has claimed hundreds of including that Obama is the anti christ and another that said UNSAVED jews will make it through the tribulation and still worship in temples and read the Torah and offer blood sacrafices to Jesus in the millienial rule...these things are not biblical which leads me to seriously question ANY vision she has.

Ally said...

Hey anon. Thanks! I didnt have time to research her or look at anything else today. Someone had sent it to me and I found it thought provoking at least. We will sure know soon. Its only a few days away and NOTHING really surprises me anymore! Just watching the signs increase and trying to figure out how much I can talk to my unbelieving daughter about this without permanently damaging our relationship. She is extremely not open to the gospel and very hateful to me when I bring it up. I'm helping her pack and get ready for her move 3500 miles away. Knowing of course that this is probably the last time I will ever see her. And really, at this point, the Holy Ghost is gonna have to do the work.