President Trump now says new talks with Iran will begin Monday afternoon after he called off a planned "massive attack" - following high level Saudi intervention, and also likely White House advisors and Pentagon leadership failing to agree on a strategic vision.
"The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one US official told Axios over the weekend, with another saying that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes. Trump aknowledged all of this to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning from Bedminster, New Jersey, to Joint Base Andrews. He claimed the canceled attack would have been "the biggest attack since World War II" and could have been "disastrous" for Iran.
"I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran to hold off strikes," Trump said. "It would have been a massive attack." He added: "When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, Well, let's see."
"I asked the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, 'What would you rather have us do?'" Trump said. "He said, 'We would prefer a deal rather than an attack.'" And more: "Allies think there is a deal," Trump explained. "There is a deal on Hormuz, and it will be a deal on the nuclear."
Iranian officials said there are currently no negotiations with the United States and that Tehran is not planning to send or host any delegations "these days."
However, Iran has confirmed that it is deep into negotiations over managing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and that it desires to get more ships moving through the vital transit waterway. According to Bloomberg on Monday:
Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, after President Donald Trump called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic.
Oil fell on Monday, with Brent crude down about 4.5% to just over $83 a barrel, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said discussions between Tehran and Oman over management of the strait are in the final stages.
While Tehran officials acknowledged that negotiations with Oman are ongoing and that progress has been made toward securing a temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz, they stressedthat reaching an agreement with Oman alone would not be enough to reopen the waterway, warning that the situation will remain unchanged as long as US "aggression" continues.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conveyed also that China is concerned about "the escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region" and is working to prevent the situation from worsening. He described that there is no new mediator involved in contacts with Washington, with Pakistan and Qatar continuing to carry out that role.
On the broader conflict, Baghaei argued that the US-Israeli war on Iran is not merely a war against one country, but "a war against the entire region." He laid out that Iran once again rejected attempts to tie developments in Yemen to the conflict with Iran, calling such claims "a form of evasion of responsibility."
"We currently do not have negotiations with America," and Iran had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters.
Meanwhile, the on-again, off-again style of escalation and de-escalation pattern we are witnessing is likely only helping Tehran's side in terms of leverage, as the conflict grinds on and potentially becomes more politically costly for the White House.
Referring to the Iranians, Reuters writes in new analysis, "They see an opportunity in what they regard as President Donald Trump's reluctance to become deeply entangled in another Middle East conflict ahead of November's midterm elections."
"The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in," a Gulf source is cited in the report as saying. "Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend." That much should be obvious by now, as Trump Tacos once again.
According to more from Reuters: "Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East's trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation, according to Gulf officials and analysts."
Who can outlast? This is currently month #6 of the war...
"Rather than seeking a decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war," the report continues. But that much should have been obvious and anticipated from week one of the war, and clearly the US side underestimated things.
The past few days have been tense. Although no US strikes were launched from Friday night into Saturday morning and the Gulf region remained quiet early Sunday, anticipation surrounding President Trump's next move is keeping energy traders and Gulf governments on edge. The big concern is that another round of strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly as the Iranian-backed Houthis have reactivated offensive operations in the southern Red Sea in recent weeks.
The Trump administration and Department of War may pursue de-escalation from here after Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday night: "We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to."
That de-esclation pathway was followed by a new signal early Sudnay from Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia's official state news agency, stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump, discussing the "necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce that paves the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability."
The MbS-Trump call was first reported by Axios, which got the scoop on Saturday evening:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.
Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.
Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries
- The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one U.S. official told Axios.
- A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.
Why the MBS-Trump conversation matters is that Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington's top Gulf region allies. Riyadh has heavily influenced Trump's Iran policy at previous inflection points and appears to have exerted similar influence in delaying or narrowing the next phase of US military action.
No comments:
Post a Comment