Get ready for another round of sticker shock at your local grocery stores and food markets.
The nation’s largest bank has just put out a chilling report that confirms what I have been warning about since the first week of March: A global food shortage is coming, caused by war and bad weather, leading to widespread famine as we get into 2027.
In a report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
While we in America, Canada and Europe can expect to pay higher food prices and may have to cut back elsewhere, other countries will be in worse shape. Think about the migration storm that will cause, as people in the Third World leave their countries and head for wealthier countries that have more food.
“Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027,” Szentivanyi said, warning that “this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food inflation cycle is likely to exert pressure through 1H27.”
JP Morgan Chase’s report on a looming food crisis rocked the internet as people posted on it across social media platforms today.
What this means is that a larger segment of the population is going to wake up and start stocking up. That means prices will go up even faster than they have been, as demand increases, and those prices will rise faster than they would have if the masses hadn’t been suddenly jolted into reality by an establishment institution like JP Morgan Chase and all the press coverage that entails.
Farmers facing shortages or overly expensive fertilizer, depending on their financial position, can either absorb the cost, use less of it or switch crops. Each choice would reduce supply and raise food prices after the next harvest.
“Rising fertilizer prices could lift global food inflation temporarily to 4-5%,” warned Szentivanyi, author of the JP Morgan report. She expects the most severe impact on food prices to appear after a months-long lag time, once we get into 2027.
That will bring another inflation shock for Americans who are still dealing with a price shock on gasoline, diesel and food prices.
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted those supplies. JP Morgan said nitrogen fertilizer prices rose between 25% and 50% from late February to April, while nitrogen markets are expected to remain tight through the second half of 2026.
Nitrogen fertilizer must be available when crops are planted and there are no widespread strategic reserves. JP Morgan estimates damaged fertilizer plants could take up to four years to repair, while some natural gas facilities could take up to five years.
Grain supplies also face pressure, thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell about 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August, as Russian attacks nearly halted Black Sea shipments. Ukraine produces around 6% of the world’s wheat and 11% of its corn.
Ukrainian strikes have also closed major grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, shipping $9.2 billion worth of it in 2024
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