Is Damascus Going Down?

Is Damascus going down?

Monica Showalter

It isn't looking good for Syria's detested dictator, Bashar al-Assad.

The strongman is surrounded by multiple rebel factions, all of which have blocked his route out of the city off.

A disaster is taking place for Russia and the Assad Regime in Syria Hama was just lost by Assad/Russia a couple of hours ago. HTS quickly advanced 26km South toward Homs If Homs is taken, Damascus is cut off from Latakia and Tartus, where Russia’s Air Base and Naval Base are

He's losing city after city in rapid succession, domino-style:

"The situation is too difficult for the Damascus regime." In just "eight days of fighting", Syrian rebels have taken two key cities and now a Homs victory is looking likely too, says journalist at North Press Agency Hoshang Hasan.

After taking Aleppo and Hama, they are reportedly on the outskirts of Homs, north of the capital Damascus.

And they're getting stronger:

As Syria’s rebels march toward Damascus, they are using heavy weapons that Assad’s army left behind in Aleppo and Hama. The Assad regime’s diminished forces seem to be preparing for an existential struggle to keep the capital.

According to Syria-watcher Saul Sadka, who seems to be from Israel:

If the rebels capture the Homs area, it is all over for Assad. His Alawite coastal heartland and all the ports (circled in pink) will be cut off from the capital Damascus. Iran would lose access to all but two border crossings into Lebanon (mountain passes that Israel can, and routinely does, control via airstrikes. The Kurds are also pushing into Deir Az Zor (circled in yellow), and if they succeed, Iran will lose its primary supply route to Hezbollah (they will be forced to run the gauntlet across the Syrian desert, within easy reach of US bases).

The best case for Assad is that his poorly paid troops can hold Homs, allowing him to keep a rump state (the blue circled area). If he can't, expect huge bloodletting as the hated Alawites reap the whirlwind of their 50 years of oppression of all the other groups.

Assad's head from a statue is being dragged through one city's streets:

The head of the so-called “Sphinx of Damascus”, long and much praised by British experts on Syria & FO diplomats, rolls in the streets of Hama