Joel Rosenberg: 'Israeli Leaders May Feel They Have No Choice But To Strike Iran'

Middle East expert fears trainwreck in region if Iran emboldened

SETH J. FRANTZMAN

An Iranian-backed war against Israel involving Hezbollah in Lebanon on one end, and a Saudi peace deal on the other, could be in the air, according to author Joel Rosenberg, who has spoken with leaders in the region. 

"I write about worst case scenarios,” said Joel Rosenberg.

The author of political thrillers has also become a witness to history in the region in recent years, meeting monarchs and political leaders as the Abraham Accords took shape. As such his political thrillers, the fourth of which has just been released, can be a window into what might happen in the region, gleaned from real life scenarios.

In November I spoke to Rosenberg after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Saudi Arabia. His views tend to reflect some of the tectonic changes taking place in the region.

"In the 34 days of the Second Lebanon War, we saw 4,000 missiles fired by Hezbollah at Israel – but in a Third Lebanon War, we could see 4,000 missiles a day being fired at Israel. I am very concerned. This is the type of thing that could erupt at a moment’s notice.”

Rosenberg encourages us to look at Lebanon as a major focus and one the US should take seriously.

He notes that the US was more focused on Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s. “But in recent years, very little attention has been paid to Lebanon.”

There is a growing sense among senior Israeli officials that they may have to go back to the way they were thinking in 2012 – that if the US and international community don’t take decisive action either diplomatically or militarily to stop Iran from getting The Bomb, then the IDF may be forced to launch pre-emptive airstrikes against nuclear facilities inside Iran.”

These concerns have been made clear by Israeli defense officials in recent weeks. Warnings about Iranian nuclear enrichment have been made public. In addition Israel is concerned about Iran’s role in Yemen and its threats from Syria, as well as Hezbollah.

“Israeli official are increasingly worried that the Biden administration could stumble into a weak and ineffectual Second Nuclear Deal,” says Rosenberg. “What people don’t realize is that Iran’s number one way of striking back at Israel is not primarily with Iranian missiles but with Iranian-built missiles – 150,000 of them – positioned in Lebanon and all aimed at us here in Israel.” 

He has a bitter warning for the future as well. “That type of scenario – with thousands of missiles raining down on Israel every day – could completely overwhelm Israeli missile defense systems. That is a terrifying prospect and not just for Israel. It could also pull the US into a war inadvertently and the Biden administration must take this seriously.”

Iran is threatening the US in Iraq with rocket attacks. It is hammering Saudi Arabia with almost daily ballistic missile and drone attacks which are escalating. 

It attacked an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman. “If the White House and State Department make Israel feel vulnerable, and don’t find a way to force Iran to back down on its nuclear program – if Biden cannot or will not find a way to neutralize the Iranian threat – then Israel won’t sit around and do nothing.

"Israeli leaders may feel they have no other choice but to strike Iran, and the implications for every country in the region – and for the US – are huge,” says Rosenberg.  

"There are forces that are hell-bent on making sure that Arabs and Israelis never make lasting peace and they will do everything in their power to create war and terror to prevent peace from taking hold.”