Thursday, May 12, 2016

Escalation: Russia vs U.S. - Nuclear Sabre-Rattling




And this comes only one day after the escalation with China in the S. China Sea. Most of the article below is bolded because the information is that significant: 






In a dramatic development for the global nuclear balance of power, yesterday we reported that starting today, the United States would launch its European missile defense system dubbed Aegis Ashore at a remote airbase in the town of Deveselu, Romania, almost a decade after Washington proposed protecting NATO from Iranian rockets and despite repeated Russian warnings that the West is threatening the peace in central Europe.
As Robert Bell, a NATO-based envoy of U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter explained "we now have the capability to protect NATO in Europe. The Iranians are increasing their capabilities and we have to be ahead of that. The system is not aimed against Russia," he told reporters, adding that the system will soon be handed over to NATO command.
We also noted that the Kremlin, which for years has warned that it would have no choice than to escalate proportionally, was "incensed at such of show of force by its Cold War rival in formerly communist-ruled eastern Europe where it once held sway." 
Moscow said that the U.S.-led alliance is trying to encircle it close to the strategically important Black Sea, home to a Russian naval fleet and where NATO is also considering increasing patrols. Russia has good reason to be worried: the US move is a clear defection from the carefully established Game Theory equilibrium in the aftermath of the nuclear arms race, one which potentially removes a Russian first strike threat, thereby pressuring Russia.

We added that "the precarious nuclear balance of power in Europe has suddenly shifted, and quite dramatically: despite U.S. assurances, the Kremlin says the missile shield's real aim is to neutralize Moscow's nuclear arsenal long enough for the United States to make a first strike on Russia in the event of war."

In conclusion we said that "what makes this step particularly dangerous is that Russia will now be forced to retaliate and since it does not have a comparable defensive technology, Putin will have no choice but to deploy more ICBMs on Russia's borders, which in turn will exponentially escalate the threat of an "inadvertent" launch. Although considering how the "market" responds to newsflow these past few years, this may also be seen as a bullish catalyst for stocks."

Fast forward to today when as American and allied officials celebrated the opening of a long-awaited missile defense system in Europe with a ribbon cutting and a band... 


.... the reaction in Moscow on Thursday was darker: a public discussion of how nuclear war might play out in Europe and the prospect that Romania, the host nation for the United States-built system, might be reduced to “smoking ruins.”

As expected, Russia was furious. The NYT cites Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov who told reporters in a conference call that "we have been saying right from when this story started that our experts are convinced that the deployment of the ABM system poses a certain threat to the Russian Federation."

Of course, the US and NATO are well aware of this, which is why they have proceeded with this latest provocation, one which however has far more profound implications to the peace in Europe than the occasional barrel-roll in a fighter plane fly by.
"Measures are being taken to ensure the necessary level of security for Russia,” he said. “The president himself, let me remind you, has repeatedly asked who the system will work against."
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said Russian defense experts consider the site a threat. "We still view the destructive actions of the United States and its allies in the area of missile defense as a direct threat to global and regional security." She said that the Aegis Ashore launchpad was “practically identical” to a system used aboard Aegis warships that is capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles.

As the NYT adds, while the United States says it has no Tomahawk missiles at the site in Romania, the launchpad violates a 1987 treaty intended to take the superpowers off their hair-trigger nuclear alert, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, by banning land-based cruise and medium-range missiles with a range from 300 to 3,400 miles. 
The problem, as we wrote yesterday, is that the short flight time of these missiles diminished to mere minutes the window Soviet leaders would have had after a warning to decide whether to launch a second strike, raising the risks of mishaps. Any redeployment of nuclear-capable missiles in Central Europe, the NYT writes, would roll the clock back to this nerve-racking 1980s status quo.

And now the ball is in Russia's court.

One potential response Russia will implement, is a nuclear-armed drone submarine. 
Last fall, Russian security officials appeared to drop hints of this military response to the missile defense system hinting through the leak that Russia has options. The drone, according to easily decipherable text accompanying the design drawing, would be capable of carrying a large nuclear device into coastal waters and detonating it, touching off a radioactive tsunami to flood and contaminate seaside cities. 
In short, the kind of stuff that unleashes new all time highs in stock markets when it all goes wrong. 
The submarine would “defeat important economic objects of an enemy in coastal zones, bringing guaranteed and unacceptable losses on the country’s territory by forming a wide area of radioactive contamination incompatible with conducting military, economic or any other activities there for a long period of time,” it said.
As the NYT adds, a Russian commentator, Konstantin Bogdanov, wrote on Lenta.ru, a news portal, that the antimissile sites in Eastern Europe might even accelerate the slippery slope to nuclear war in a crisis
This is precisely what we said yesterday as well. 
Bogdanov added that the missile sites would inevitably become priority targets in the event of nuclear war, possibly even targets for preventive strikes. Countries like Romania that host American antimissile systems might be the only casualties, he wrote, whereas the United States would then reconcile with Russia “over the smoking ruins of the East European elements of the missile defense system.”
* * * 
There is, of course, a far simpler response. Recall that in November 2008, then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev made a stark warning to NATO: "Russia will deploy Iskander missile systems in its enclave in Kaliningrad to neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe." We also reported in 2013 that in a seeming escalation as the ballistic shield appeared on its way to completion, there were unconfirmed reports that Russia had deployed a "double-digit" amount of SS-26 mobile units within Kaliningrad. 
This time, we are absolutely certain, another nuclear ICBM deployment in the proximity of central Europe is imminent as Russia has no choice but to respond and this time it will be very much confirmed.












As American and allied officials celebrated the opening of a long-awaited missile defense system in Europe with a ribbon cutting and a band, the reaction in Russia on Thursday suggested the system had raised the risks of a nuclear war.

Russian officials reiterated their position that the American-built system imperiled Russia’s security. 

But the public discussion in Russia was darker, including online commentary of how a nuclear confrontation might play out in Europe, and the prospect that Romania, the system’s host, might be reduced to “smoking ruins.”

“We have been saying right from when this story started that our experts are convinced that the deployment of the ABM system poses a certain threat to the Russian Federation,” the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters in a conference call.

“Measures are being taken to ensure the necessary level of security for Russia,” he said. “The president himself, let me remind you, has repeatedly asked who the system will work against.”

In Moscow, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said Russian defense experts consider the site a threat.
“We still view the destructive actions of the United States and its allies in the area of missile defense as a direct threat to global and regional security,” Ms. Zakharova said.
She said that the Aegis Ashore launchpad was “practically identical” to a system used aboard Aegis warships that is capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The short flight time of these missiles diminished to mere minutes the window Soviet leaders would have had after a warning to decide whether to launch a second strike, raising the risks of mishaps. Any redeployment of nuclear-capable missiles in Central Europe would roll the clock back to this nerve-racking 1980s status quo.







The Sarmat RS-28 is getting ready to take her maiden test voyage sometime in the second half of 2016.
To date, she will be the most destructive missile ever produced by man.
It believed that it will be a liquid fueled missile that will make it very maneuverable. But on top of that, it will have a number of countermeasures built in to help it dodge enemy radar systems as well as the ability to avoid detection the use a combination of decoys, a number of countermeasures and its sheer speed.
Now was this missile a surprise? No, the existence of the Satan-2 ballistic missile was made public by the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RSMF) in December 2013 with a projected entry into service in the 2018-2020 timeframe. According to the RSMF, they will procure roughly 50 Sarmat / Satan-2 missiles.
In December 2014 the RSMF confirmed that the Satan-2 will be able to carry 10 hypersonic strategic missiles. According to Yuri Borisov, the new ICBM’s range will be greater than 11,000 km or 6835 miles.
Just to give you an idea, Moscow to New York is approximately 4660 miles apart, 1770 miles more and you will hit Denver. So the new Satan-2 has the capability of hitting Denver from Moscow if we were fired upon.
But that is not all. The distance that the missile can fly is one thing, the real danger is in the payload.
The Satan-2 Missile has the ability to carry up to 10 hypersonic nukes, which once they are released at the 11,000 Km / 6835 mile range, these hypersonic can then fly and maneuver another 3,000 (1800 Miles) to 5,000 Km (3100 miles). They have the ability to fly over 100 Km / 62 miles high and reach speeds in excess of Mach 10, which is ten times the speed of sound.

We know that the hypersonic missiles can fly this fast because it was confirmed in June 2015 with the hypersonic glider/missile that was called the Yu-71.


Russia Yu-71, US Prompt Global Strike and China’s Wu-14 Hypersonic missile programs


    Adm. Cecil D. Haney, Strategic Command’s (Stratcom) senior leader, said during remarks at a nuclear deterrence conference that despite arms control efforts, hypersonic weapons are among several threatening strategic trends emerging in the world.
    China has conducted four flight tests of a 7,000 mile-per-hour maneuvering strike vehicle, and Russia is developing high-speed weapons and reportedly tested a hypersonic weapon in February.
Unlike ballistic rockets which fly up, reach a designated altitude, released and then re-enter on a predictable path, the hypersonic YU-71missile that Russia is going to use as part of their Satan-2 ICBM, they (YU-71) will be able to constantly change direction, maneuver.
A representative from the Russian army and industry stated …


“The first test-launch of a Sarmat missile from a silo in the Plesetsk spaceport [Arkhangelsk region] will be performed approximately in the second half of 2016. So-called drop tests will be conducted before that,”
The new missile will be able to deliver a multiple warhead of up to ten tonnes “to any part of the globe via either the North Pole or the South Pole,”







Russia has reacted strongly to the deployment of a US missile system in Romania, calling it a "threat" to its security. The defense system became operational Thursday amid increased tensions between Russia and the West.

Although Washington insists that its European missile shield is not meant to counter Russia, Moscow seems to be unconvinced by the assurance.

"From the very beginning of this whole story, we have said that according to our experts' opinion, we are convinced that the deployment of the missile defense system is truly a threat to Russia's security," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow.

A US missile defense interception station in southern Romania became operational on Thursday. It will become part of a larger NATO missile shield to defend the alliance's member states against possible ballistic missile attacks.
"Today the United States and Romania make history in delivering this system to the NATO alliance," said Mark Ferguson, the US commander in Europe and Africa, at an inauguration ceremony alongside NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg at Deveselu, south of the Romanian capital Bucharest.




1 comment:

carol said...

One does become disheartened from this life and any future plans in this life as deep in our hearts they may not come to pass. That is we won't be here for very long