While Israel has regained military superiority and deterrence in many arenas since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, it has yet to translate those achievements into lasting strategic security.
That is the central dilemma facing Israel today, according to three security and strategic experts who spoke with ALL ISRAEL NEWS.
After three years of ongoing conflict that involved a seven-front arena, Israel has regained, and perhaps even improved, its defenses. But old enemies such as Iran and new ones such as Turkey still pose a threat that the Jewish state needs to prepare for, these experts believe.
The Oct. 7 attacks shook Israel, disrupting the country’s sense of security, which had been built up through military and technological prowess over previous decades. They also left many citizens asking whether their country is safe and if the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is prepared to face the next major threat.
More than 3,000 terrorists from Palestinian militias, along with hundreds of Gazan civilians, overran the border fence, massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking 251 hostage.
The invasion touched off nearly three years of war that drew in Iranian proxies and allies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran itself, while turning many countries against the Jewish state.
“Israel’s current strategic position is incomparably better than it was on the eve of the war,” said Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security. “The distance Israel has traveled from the low point of Oct. 7 to its status as a regional military power only magnifies the scale of this achievement.”
Shabbat served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021, following a career in the Shin Bet.
“The Shiite axis has suffered a severe blow – even if not yet a fatal one,” Shabbat told ALL ISRAEL NEWS. “Israel has seized territory and maintains operational freedom of movement in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. The Israeli economy is achieving remarkable results, and the home front is demonstrating profound resilience, providing strong backing for the offensive policy across all arenas.”
However, those gains have not ended threats against Israel, nor prevented the development of new ones.
“Israel’s greatest challenge stems from the fact that the work is not yet finished, and the current reality remains fragile,” Shabbat explained. “Our enemies on every front have not given up; they are trying, and will continue trying, to rebuild themselves. Furthermore, looking to the long term, Turkey – driven by Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman and Islamist ambitions – has emerged as a significant addition to the array of challenges Israel must confront.”
Danny Ayalon, who served as deputy foreign minister and ambassador to the U.S., agreed that during the past three years, Israel has “enhanced its deterrence.”
“The brilliant military performance of Israel on all fronts enhanced its deterrence and add to that is the policy after Oct. 7 to preempt any danger developed by our enemies,” Ayalon told AIN.
The former diplomat cautioned, however, that Israel’s military success “came with a price of loss of legitimacy among our natural western allies who are turning against us and in particular the Netanyahu government which is losing the public diplomacy war due to ineptitude of its ministers and an unsophisticated policy.”
While acknowledging military achievements, Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, was less optimistic.
“The reality is that the ‘Axis of Evil’—Iran’s Shiite axis—hasn’t collapsed yet, and it’s too early to say it's about to,” he said adding that Israel will have to stay focused on the Iranian threat “as long as Iran is on its feet and the regime there holds firm.”
“Hamas is the only one that has been hit really hard; the rest of the axis is still standing. We need to take that into account – we have to finish the job and the key is Iran,” Ben Menachem told AIN. “The moment we bring down the regime in Iran, it will impact the entire axis and weaken all its offshoots.”
Both Shabbat and Ben Menachem also warned of the growing Turkish threat.
“Turkey is the new Iran,” Ben Menachem said.
Israel’s improved deterrence, however, means that the Sunni Muslim nation is unlikely to act on the threats of its leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ben Menachem said.
According to Shabbat, Israel’s growing military cooperation with Greece and Cyprus is aimed at deterring Erdoğan while it focuses on the continued Iranian threat.
Ben Menachem warned that Israel must be ready to confront Turkey even if the Iranian threat is successfully removed.
“The Turks are preparing to step into the vacuum that the Shiite axis – the Iranians – will leave behind, and to strengthen the Sunni axis alongside Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other nations,” he said.
Both Shabbat and Ben Menachem believe Israel needs to achieve a self-sufficient defense industry in order to confront these growing threats. They pointed to the restrictions placed on Israel by former U.S. President Joe Biden during the Gaza War and similar actions by Britain as proof that Israel must be ready to stand alone.
“Increasing Israel’s independence in the fields of weaponry and munitions is a necessity in light of regional and global trends,” Shabbat stated.
Though Israel was seemingly taken by surprise on Oct. 7 itself, the country’s intelligence and security agencies delivered stunning achievements during the resulting conflict, eliminating top Hamas leaders in Gaza, Tehran, Beirut and Syria.
In June 2025, Israel struck Iran alone, showcasing coordination between military and intelligence services to hit targets over a thousand kilometers away deep within enemy territory in Operation Rising Lion.
Then, with the U.S. military in early 2026, Israeli intelligence was responsible for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian military leaders in the opening moments of Operation Roaring Lion.
Despite all those successes, Hamas still controls the Palestinian population in Gaza, and has so far refused to disarm. Hezbollah in Lebanon also still possesses significant resources in Lebanon, despite being battered by the IDF.
And while the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in 2024 collapsed the Iranian project there, it has not led to the removal of the threat on Israel’s northern border. The jihadi militias which helped bring Ahmed al-Sharaa to power – and now comprise the Syrian military – have already declared their intention to help “liberate Al Aqsa.”
In a recent speech outlining his new security doctrine for Israel’s future, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke of the need to be ready to face these continuing and developing threats alone.
Netanyahu also spoke of ending the Iranian threat to Israel, making it the highest priority in his security strategy. Like these analysts, the prime minister recognized the unfinished nature of Israel’s recent military actions.
“We will have to live by our sword in order to survive for many years, and it is essential that this sword remains sharpened,” Netanyahu stated.
While Israel’s strategic standing may have improved, the nation does not yet dwell securely in its land.
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