The Coming Oil Crisis?

Are You Prepared For The Worst Global Oil Crisis In More Than 50 Years?

Michael Snyder

 At the very beginning of this war with Iran, the price of oil didn’t rise too much because many investors were anticipating a quick victory over Iran. But now it has become exceedingly clear that there will be no quick victory, and the price of oil is spiking dramatically. Unless something really crazy happens, this is going to be an extended conflict, and that means that the flow of oil out of the Middle East will not return to normal for quite some time.

According to CNBC, the Iranians just hit another oil tanker with a missile…

Iran claimed to have struck an oil tanker with a missile, according to a state media report. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard ordered a closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week and threatened to attack tankers passing through it, according to state media.

The British Navy on Thursday reported a large explosion at a tanker at anchor in Iraqi territorial waters. The ship’s master reported seeing a small vessel flee the scene. The crew is safe and no fires were reported.

The Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz is absolutely teeming with anti-ship missiles.

Until something is done about that, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be paralyzed…

“You’ve essentially had the Strait of Hormuz grind down to a halt,” explained Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, a data and analytics firm.

He said the slowdown isn’t necessarily because Iran has formally closed the waterway, though Tehran has threatened to, but because shippers are weighing the risk of missile or drone strikes in the narrow corridor.

The result, Smith said, is a growing bottleneck of crude and refined products. And if the disruption stretches from days into weeks, Smith warned, the fallout could intensify quickly.

“If this drags on for weeks, the ramifications are huge,” he said, pointing to early ripple effects already emerging in global energy markets.

Many are comparing the current state of affairs to the oil embargo of 1973.

But the truth is that the supply disruption that we are experiencing now is far greater than anything that we experienced back then…

So how does this get fixed?

Well, the truth is that it isn’t going to get fixed until the war ends.

At this stage, the U.S. and Israel have achieved full aerial dominance and are bombing the living daylights out of Iran.

But that won’t bring an end to the regime.

Regime leaders are now hiding deep underneath hospitals, schools and mosques, 125,000 heavily-armed members of the IRGC have full control of the major cities, and Iran has one of the largest armies in the world.

Sending in a few thousand Kurds won’t do much against an army that boasts more than 600,000 men on active duty and more than 300,000 men among the reserves.

In order to bring the regime in Iran to an end, it will require either a ground invasion or the use of nuclear weapons.

Needless to say, the Trump administration is not even considering either of those two options.

The other way that this war could stop is if the U.S. and Israel simply decide to stop attacking and allow the current regime to remain in power.

That would be considered a victory for Iran and a loss for the U.S. and Israel.

Personally, I don’t think that President Trump will be eager to admit defeat any time soon.

So for now, the war will continue, and the global oil crisis will escalate.

Interestingly, the Chinese are trying to convince the Iranians to allow vessels that are carrying oil and liquified natural gas to China to travel safely through the region…

China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Israeli war on Tehran intensifies, three diplomatic sources tell Reuters.

The war, which entered its sixth day on Thursday, has left the critical shipping passageway all but shut, with countries around the world cut off from a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

China, which has friendly relations with Iran and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supplies, is unhappy about the Islamic Republic’s move to paralyze shipping through the Strait and is pressing Tehran to allow safe passage for the vessels, according to the sources.

China is very dependent on oil and liquified natural gas from the Middle East, and I have a feeling that the Iranians may make an exception for them.

But the rest of us are going to experience significant pain.

Since the war began, gasoline prices have already been jumping all over the country…

Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have jumped nearly 27 cents since last week to $3.25 per gallon on average, according to the motorist group AAA. The last time gas prices made a similar jump was in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, the group said.

Unless some sort of a miracle happens, the price of gasoline is only going to go higher, and the White House is desperately searching for solutions…

President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is telling his advisers to bring ideas to the Oval Office to lower gasoline prices in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran, according to two energy industry executives familiar with the conversations.

The White House is “looking under every rock for ideas on improving energy prices, especially gasoline prices,” said one of the executives, who was granted anonymity to describe internal administration discussions.

Sensing an opportunity, Vladimir Putin is threateningto cut off the flow of natural gas to Europe…

A smirking Vladimir Putin has threatened to halt gas supplies to Europe and Britain amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis. Oil and gas prices have soared following the US and Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran’s strikes on Gulf Arab neighbours. The conflict has paralysed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and forced the shutdown of Qatar’s LNG production and Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery. 

The Russian president said oil prices were rising due to the ‘aggression against Iran’ and due to Western restrictions on Russian oil, while European gas prices were rising because customers were willing to buy gas volumes at higher prices due to events in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

During the weeks ahead, global energy prices are going to be such a huge story.

All over the world, people are going to be blaming the United States and Israel for the price of gasoline.

We were warned in advance that this sort of a scenario was coming, and now it is here.

The longer this war drags on, the worse global economic conditions will become.

Our entire way of life depends upon cheap energy, and now that entire paradigm has been put at risk.