Meanwhile, most of the country is experiencing at least some level of drought right now. If you check out the latest map from the U.S. Drought Monitor, it looks like a horror show. Even if there was no war going on in the Middle East, farmers in the U.S. would still be facing a nightmarish drought that never seems to end.
There has been so little snow in most of the western half of the nation this winter.
Snowpack levels are historically low, and that means that a very rough summer is ahead.
We are only in March, and we are already seeing severe water restrictions being imposed.
For example, restaurants in Denver are forbidden from serving water unless customers specifically ask for it…
Restaurants in Colorado’s capital are only allowed to serve water to guests if they ask, according to new restrictions by the Denver Board of Water Commissioners.
“Restaurants and catering businesses shall serve water only upon request,” the mandatory irrigation restrictions read.
The rules were issued in the Mile High City after the commissioners declared a Stage 1 Drought and made plans to seek a 20 percent reduction in water use. City officials expect drought conditions to last until April 30, 2027.
That is crazy.
And hotels in Denver are being ordered to “not change sheets more often than every four days for guests staying more than one night”…
“Lodging establishments shall not change sheets more often than every four days for guests staying more than one night, except for health or safety reasons or upon express request of guests,” the Denver Board of Water Commissioners stated.
Drivers who attempt to wash their car are told to use a bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with an automatic shut-off nozzle if they don’t use a commercial car wash.
Residents can water their grass only two days per week, according to the schedule provided by city officials, but it is prohibited between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m., when the sun is up.
If things are this bad now, what will they look like once we get to the dog days of August?
USA Today talked to a water expert named Brad Udall, and he had a difficult time finding the words to describe how severe this crisis has become…
Longtime Western water expert Brad Udall said it’s hard to put into words just how bad things are. He said the early ski area closures will likely be followed by ranchers selling off cattle, and then skies darkened by wildfire smoke as dry vegetation burns.
Farmers in many areas of the Southwest simply are not going to have enough water this year.
So what are they going to do?
At the same time, U.S. farmers are also facing a fertilizer crisis that is unlike anything they have ever experienced before.
One industry insider is projecting that here in the United States there will be a shortage of at least 2 million tons of urea this spring…
Of course it isn’t just U.S. farmers that will be dealing with a lack of fertilizer.
As John Rubino has correctly pointed out, much of the world’s fertilizer supply is now trapped behind three locks…
- Lock one: the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC permissioned corridor allows oil tankers from friendly nations to pay $2 million in yuan and pass. It does not allow fertiliser vessels to pass at any price. Zero approved fertiliser transits in 24 days. The Gulf supplies 49 percent of the world’s exported urea and roughly 30 percent of traded ammonia. That supply is not delayed. It is denied. The gate opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. It stays closed for molecules that feed the planet.
- Lock two: Russia. The world’s largest exporter of ammonium nitrate just halted all AN exports until after April 21. Three to four million tonnes per year, gone from global markets at the exact moment the Northern Hemisphere needs it most. The official reason is “domestic priority.” The strategic effect is leverage. Russia earns windfall revenue from the oil price spike its ally’s war created, then removes the fertiliser that farmers need to plant through the crisis. The disease and the cure, again, from the same address.
- Lock three: China. Beijing has banned exports of nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate fertilisers through August 2026. China is the world’s largest phosphate producer and a major nitrogen supplier. The ban removes the last alternative source that could have compensated for Hormuz and Russia. Three locks. Three countries. Three deliberate decisions timed to the same biological calendar.
None of this is going to change in time to save the spring planting season.
That means that there will be widespread crop losses, and global food supplies will start getting really tight about six months from now.
It will not matter if the Strait of Hormuz opens up in a couple of months. As Rubino has explained, nitrogen fertilizer must be applied at the correct time or it won’t work…
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